Superbowl XLV

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Apparently this one is too close to call. So here's why the Packers will win it (courtesy of Betfair)...

BB's American Football expert Andy Richmond analyses the big one and predicts a defensive classic

Super Bowl XLV
Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday February 6
Live on SKY Sports 1 & HD1 22:00 - KO 23:25

Match odds: Green Bay 1.73, Pittsburgh 2.34

Between them they have played 37 games to get here, but all of those past contests pale into insignificance alongside this game - Super Bowl XLV is here and being played between two of the most-stored franchises in the NFL, with both having claims to replace the host team (Dallas Cowboys) as "America's Team"

Both have big game pedigree - the Pittsburgh Steelers looking to extend their record to seven Super Bowls, against a Green Bay Packers team seeking their fourth. Two franchises with history, passionate fans and a track record in the biggest game.

Many of the newslines within the game will be looking to draw a comparison between the two quarterbacks - Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay) and Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh) and that's fair enough. Rodgers in particular has had a career defining season and is on the verge of joining the small band of elite quarterbacks, you could argue that his opposite number is already within that band. Putting aside off-field distractions and an early season ban Roethlisberger has something, or rather two things, that Rodgers doesn't - two Super Bowl rings and a vast amount of big-game experience.

But while these two star men will obviously play key parts in Sunday's game and there will be plenty of focus on their leadership of two potent offences, let's not forget that the "other" side of the ball played a significant part in getting both sides this far. Defence is what got the Steelers and Packers to Dallas. Both were ranked in the top five in the league this regular season in points allowed, yards allowed, interceptions and sacks. Pittsburgh held their opponents to an NFL-low 14.5 points per game in the regular season and allowed just 62.8 yards per game on the ground - an amazing 27.3 yards less than the next-best team. Despite those numbers, it was a player from its backfield that walked away with defensive player of the year honours - Troy Polamalu and he is vital to the Steelers efforts both emotionally and physically.

Equally important in the Green Bay defence is Clay Matthews who challenged Polamalu for those defensive honours and was the lynchpin of the Packers defence that finished second in the league in points and fifth in yards allowed. So for all the capabilities that these two have in lighting up the scoreboard there are two ultra-strong defences that are out to stop them.

So what are the keys to winning the game and are there any weaknesses in the teams?

The Packers must learn lessons from the last time these two met - that game became a shoot-out, which resulted in a 37-36 Steelers win - the teams combined for 973 total yards, 886 passing yards and more thrills than any 2009 regular-season game. But there are differences this time and much as the neutrals would love to see another game like that it really shouldn't happen this time.

The Packers will concentrate on eliminating the Steelers deep-ball threat via the speedy Mike Wallace and also need to work on the bunch passing formations that Pittsburgh love to use to get TE Heath Miller available in short yardage passing situations. Miller's match-up with Packers linebacker Desmond Bishop is one of the keys to the game, previously Green Bay have struggled against tight-ends but have contained Brent Celek, Anthony Gonzalez and Greg Olsen very well during the play-offs.

They must also be consistent with their pressure on Roethlisberger - defensive co-ordinator Dom Capers will need to attack what is now a weakened offensive line without rookie Pro Bowl centre Maurkice Pouncey to injury. That injury could also hurt the Steelers running game as Pouncey is essential to their success on the ground, opening holes for Rashard Mendenhall - the Steelers also use Mendenhall for setting up their passing game, so a no go for Pouncey is a massive loss.

The Steelers will also want to bring pressure on Rodgers, but the Packers have done a good job of detecting the blitz of late and he was particularly impressive in dismantling the Falcons in the Georgia Dome. If there is one player that he will be focusing on in the Steelers secondary it will be often-burned Bryant McFadden. If the Packers can get premier receiver Greg Jennings one-on-one with McFadden we may see one or two very big plays.

Green Bay have been the better starters throughout the post-season and have not trailed by more than seven points at any time in any of their 19 games. For two outdoor, cold-weather teams, the Packers also appear better suited by playing indoors, that Georgia Dome dismantling of Atlanta being fresh in the memory.

This has the potential to be another close contest and when you break the sides down there is very little between them. Yes, the Steelers have the experience but the Packers have momentum, having been in sudden death mode for at least the last five games, and they can emulate previous road warriors who won the Super Bowl - the 2006 Steelers and the 2008 Giants - and become the first NFC sixth seed to take the Lombardi Trophy named after their iconic former Head Coach.

Recommended Bets:

Back Green Bay Packers - 2.5 @ 1.89 or better to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers

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And here's why the Steeler represent the value bet...

Line betting is all the rage in the NFL but what's the point when two teams are so closely matched, asks Jack Houghton

Britain's gamblers have always been willing to accept that, from time-to-time, they'll be presented with an event that is decidedly lop-sided: Liverpool taking on a non-league team in the FA Cup; Arkle going for a third Gold Cup; Matt Cardle loosening the vocal chords on X Factor final night.

On occasions like this - where the scales of chance are heavily weighted on one side - the event is priced-up accordingly, and punters make their choice. Simple. It may well be that the weight of money required to make a wager on the favourite financially worthwhile, or the sheer improbability of an upset, mean that punters keep their money to themselves and wait for the next betting opportunity. But one thing is for certain: there's no meddling.

At least there never used to be. Back in the day, a British betting market had a pure simplicity to it: you could bet on any of the participants or, in some sports, the draw. That was it. Times have changed though. Now it's different. We're presented with a plethora of specials and handicap markets: gimmicks to breathe life into otherwise comatose events.

Why? You wouldn't find Radio Four spicing up the Shipping Forecast for the benefit of listeners (Producer: "Any chance we can say there's a hurricane heading for Humber?"); so why do we feel the need to make every sporting event of betting interest? What's wrong with watching a hundred-to-one-on-shot for the sheer numerical beauty of it?
I blame the Americans. Coca-colonisation doesn't stop with soft-drinks and fast-food you see: now we even bet like our transatlantic cousins.

In America, it's all about the "spread". Unsatisfied with sporting events where the winner seemed a foregone conclusion, Charles K McNeil came up with the idea that, in any two-outcome event, the underdog should be "given" a certain amount of points in order to turn them into an even-money shot. This point addition - usually expressed with half-point fractions to avoid the possibility of a draw - was known as the "spread".

This Super Bowl Sunday - not to be confused with "Superb Owl Sunday", an event my spell-checker is clearly more excited by - all the talk is about the spread. When the Green Bay Packers take on the Pittsburgh Steelers at Cowboys Stadium, they will do so with the paltry advantage of just one-and-a-half points in some Nevada casinos - the smallest spread of the last half-century.

If the teams are so closely matched then, what's the point of the spread? Well, it's become a tradition I suppose. And it gives the casino PR-men something to talk about. Take RJ Bell. He's been trotting out a statistic of late: the team installed as Super Bowl favourites by Las Vegas casinos have won 32 out of 44 renewals - a 73 per cent hit rate. And the point spread, according to Bell, can be seen as an "unmatched predictor" of NFL games.

Well, maybe. But that largely depends on the records those favourites took into Super Bowls. If they tended to be very short-priced favourites, that success rate would likely have been matched by any armchair football fan. And a German octopus would have done even better still.

And anyhow, analysis conducted by Andrew Iskoe suggests that Vegas oddsmakers aren't actually as good at constructing the point spread as Bell would have us believe - with it only proving decisive in less than one in six games.

On that basis then, I'm going to throw out Bell's Vegas-favourite statistic. The ratings suggest this game is a coin-toss and so, at 2.34, the Pittsburgh Steelers have to be the value call.