Interesting analysis on O'Sullivan & Higgins chances from
Betfair....
Paul Krishnamurty is going against the grain, not only in opposing Ronnie at this year's World Championships but also in his claims that the Rocket is no longer the dominant force in snooker.
"The draw has conspired against O'Sullivan - he's up against arguably the most dangerous qualifier, Liang Wenbo, in the first round."
It's possible to divide the 40-odd years of televised snooker into four separate eras. First there was the 70s, when Ray Reardon ruled the roost and Alex 'Hurricane' Higgins converted the masses, inspiring the next generation of players. Then followed the Davis and Hendry eras, during which the man in question was virtually unbeatable.
Given the hype surrounding his every move, I suspect many would dub the period from the mid-90s onwards as the Ronnie O'Sullivan era. Without minimising his considerable achievements in any way, I've never agreed with this analysis. No one player has dominated since Hendry's peak, or ever looked like doing so.
In fact, it's arguable whether he has even been the best player in the world throughout that period, especially over the last 12 months or so. Personally, I have always preferred John Higgins. Snooker is as much about temperament as the ability to pot balls at speed and, whereas the erratic genius of O'Sullivan regularly drives punters insane, Higgins is the ultimate match-player, invariably offering a run for your money.
Their Crucible records are virtually identical. Both have three world titles to their name. Ronnie has reached the quarter-finals on 11 occasions, compared to Higgins' 10. Their head to head record at the Crucible is 2-2, with Higgins winning last time in 2007, but Ronnie winning their most important encounter in the 2001 final.
Moreover, as they have won the last three renewals between them, they are well ahead of the rest in the provisional world rankings and in separate halves of the draw, there is no likelier match-up for this year's final. It would be rightly billed as a potential classic, and all things being equal, their career stats suggest it should be priced as a coin toss affair.
However, things are anything but equal this year, since the draw has very much conspired against O'Sullivan. Whereas Higgins' first opponent in his title defence will be a man who's barely won a match all year, Barry Hawkins, Ronnie is up against arguably the most dangerous qualifier. Liang Wenbo is one of the game's brightest prospects, and will enter the elite top-16 if he wins this match.
Ronnie is particularly disadvantaged in terms of their respective potential second-round opponents. He looks almost certain to play Mark Williams, twice a former champion, winner of the latest ranking event, and arguably the player with the best recent form. In contrast, Higgins couldn't have dreamed of an easier draw at this stage, against either Mark King or Steve Davis.
After those early rounds, there will be no easy games, though again Ronnie is scheduled to meet arguably the worst possible quarter-final opponent. Mark Selby is many people's idea of the champion, and won their most recent big encounter in the Masters final.
None of this bodes well for the Rocket, given the trends of his previous Sheffield performances. On the three occasions he won the title, in 2001, 2004 and 2007, the draw was very kind to him in the crucial early stages. Maintaining concentration and form over 17 days is a tall order for this temperamental character, and makes me wonder just how many tough early matches he can cope with.
If that isn't enough to settle the argument over who should be favourite, consider recent matches between the two players. They have met four times this season, with Higgins winning the last three. Consequently, Higgins enters the final event assured of finishing the season as world number one. The logic is straightforward, though I'm sure it will have no impact on the legion of O'Sullivan fans who are prepared to back their player whatever the price. That offers a clear opportunity for the rest of us.