Six Nations 2011

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It all kicks off tomorrow night with Wales v France at the Millennium Stadium.

Here's Will Greenwood's preview from Betfair...

Alongside his bet on England -2.5 points to beat Wales, Will Greenwood is backing Ireland and France to triumph this weekend. The question is, by what margins?

Ireland have a lot of injuries to contend with so they certainly won't take their trip to Rome lightly. Italy don't stop tackling, that's what I love about them, but when a good side lifts the tempo they can't keep up. Nick Mallet's men will want to turn the match into an arm wrestle and keep things tight so the likes of Brian O'Driscoll and Gordon Darcy need to open the game up.

The days of teams expecting to smash Italy are long gone, they're too well organised to go down by huge margins. I lived in Italy for six years so I'm chuffed to see them improving year on year. Ireland will have too much but they'll have to fight for their victory. Back them to win by Under 12.5 ponits at 2.22.

As for Scotland I enjoyed being coached by Andy Robinson and I like what he's done with the team. I loved their tenacious performance against South Africa in the autumn, they have a great back row and Alastair Kellock is looking good as captain at lock.

France will be apprehensive about this match and the Scots need to get into them in the first 20 minutes. From a betting perspective, I'm tempted to? trade France in the first half and get back on them after the break. Following their awful performances in the autumn, and with the crowd getting on their backs if they don't start well, France will be too nervous to win big. Ultimately they will come through and I'm backing them to win by under 12.5 points at 2.4.

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Here's another preview from Bettingzone...

ENGLAND (best available price 2/1)

That England will do better than last year's third-placed finish in the Six Nations should be a given as they build towards the World Cup later this year. But make no mistake about it, Martin Johnson's men are still some way from being the finished article. Yes, they really impressed in the 35-18 victory over Australia in autumn (their second win over the Wallabies inside three Tests) but the bare facts are that they were pretty well beaten - by 10 points on both occasions - by New Zealand and South Africa and have won only three of their last nine games. Of course, stats can be used however you want to and they've won two of their last three, but while the feelgood factor is certainly returning it's been long overdue and there is still a lack of consistency from one game to the next. The 'Sick Nations' has already taken some pretty big scalps from Johnson's first XV too, with two of the first-choice back row (captain Lewis Moody and Tom Croft) missing along with young tyro Courtney Lawes, a major loss from the lock stocks given the impression he made in the autumn. And while Delon Armitage's ban (subject to appeal) won't affect Johnson's likely starting line-up it does remove a versatile and exciting attacking option from the bench. Of course, the likes of Ben Foden and Ben Youngs can be relied on for plenty of flair and Mark Cueto's two-year wait for an international try will surely end sooner rather than later, but England can't be regarded as shoo-ins. Though they've got the advantage of having France at Twickenham, they face trips to Wales and Ireland and it really wouldn't be a surprise to see them lose at least one of those. They've lost their last three in Cardiff and four of their last five over the Irish Sea, a trip which this season will see them return to the revamped 'Lansdowne Road'. One win in seven is a pretty abject record to take into their two away games and while Twickenham can be expected to do its bit in their three home games I can see them losing at least one of their two road trips against fired-up foes.

Predicted finish: 1st

IRELAND (10/3)

Though Ireland snapped their dreadful losing run during the autumn internationals, they were hardly firing on all cylinders and question marks continue to hang over the head of coach Declan Kidney. That may seem crazy just two years after he won the Grand Slam in his debut Six Nations but six successive defeats is a pretty shoddy record for any international team with ambitions of competing at the top level at the World Cup - and that's exactly what Ireland endured after losing to Scotland in the final game of last year's Six Nations. In their favour was the fact the majority came against the Tri-Nations giants but even in victory over Samoa and Argentina in the autumn they were pretty flat. As with Munster following their premature Heineken Cup exit, the perception is this is a team past its best but they've got plenty of players in their squad still short of their prime; even the totemic figures of Paul O'Connell and Brian O'Driscoll are 'only' 31. The advantage for Ireland in this season's tournament is they've got the two favourites on home turf at the Aviva Stadium (the renamed, and rebuilt, Lansdowne Road). They've beaten England on four and France on three of their last five trips across the Irish Sea and if they can pull off that particular double this year they'll really fancy their chances of challenging for the title. As with most sides it's away from home where the problems arise, with one win in five at the Millennium Stadium and only two in seven in Scotland major blots on their copybook. A win at Italy on the opening weekend should be a given after which they host France. If they can get through that with a couple of wins on the board the world could be their oyster. But it's the trips to Scotland and Wales that cause concern.

Predicted finish: 2nd

FRANCE (13/5)

Just what has happened to France? Since sweeping all before them in last year's Six Nations to win the title for the third time in five years they've lost three of five Test matches including a truly abject surrender at the Stade de France against Australia in November. While England swept aside the Wallabies in the autumn, France were on the receiving end of an incredible 59-16 hiding that ramped up the heat on their already under-fire coach Marc Lievremont. He's standing firm amid plenty of criticism in his homeland but he'll be under no illusions that the pressure is again building on him. It's no surprise really given France have conceded more than 40 points in three of their last five Tests - a shocking record for a team that should be in the running for the World Cup later this year. There just doesn't seem much joie de vivre in the French camp these days. That said, their two home games - Scotland and Wales - can't be far short of bankers but apart from Italy you certainly can't say that when they take to the road, and that's not just because of the typical French unpredictability. They've lost two of their last four at Twickers and an improving England side will fancy their chances of taking their scalp again this time around, particularly if they can stamp their authority on the game up front early on and break the French spirit. Lievremont's men also don't have the best of records in Ireland with three defeats in five and though they could turn in a brilliant performance and give someone a real hiding, like England I've just got a feeling they've got a loss (or two) in them along the way.

Predicted finish: 3rd

SCOTLAND (16/1)

Having only scrabbled ahead of Italy by a single point in the 2010 Six Nations, it's a mark of how much they've improved under Andy Robinson that they come into this year's competition as the only team without a loss on their record in their last two Tests. Not the most impressive of stats, granted, but when you consider one of the teams they beat was world champions South Africa it gains a bit more lustre. In his 13 matches at the helm, Robinson has masterminded seven wins and a draw but lately they've hit a rich vein of form with five victories in six - a run only spoilt by a fair old tonking by New Zealand. They've taken some big scalps under Robinson though - Australia, Ireland, Argentina (twice) and Samoa as well as the Boks - and that's brought a real sense of positivity in the camp. The 'draw' hasn't been kind to them, though, as they've been lumbered with away games at Twickenham (no wins in five) and in Paris (no wins in five) and while they'll be fancied to do the business in their three games at Murrayfield away games don't come any harder than that.

Predicted finish: 4th

WALES (13/2)

When Wales finished their 2010 Six Nations campaign with a victory over Italy, coach Warren Gatland said: "If we get everything right and keep working, we're a side that can trouble any team in the world so we must build on the performance and hopefully some confidence comes out of it." Ten months and seven Tests down the line and Wales haven't won another game. Yes, they've come up against tough opposition in the interim in the Tri-Nations 'giants' (who are responsible for six defeats in that seven-match run) but in truth they were abject in drawing against Fiji, a team who went on to lose to Italy a week later. The defeats themselves will be disturbing enough for Gatland but it's the manner of several of them that will be doubly concerning particularly as they blew a couple of healthy leads against the Springboks. For me, the success (or otherwise) of this campaign will go a long way to being decided by the first game against England in Cardiff. They've got a cracking record against the old enemy - three wins on the spin - and if they can extend that run it'll set them up nicely for the rest of the competition. Aside from England, Wales have also succumbed heavily in the pre-tournament 'Sick Nations' most notably with props Gethin Jenkins and Adam Jones crocked. They'll be massive losses against a strong English front row and though I don't want to steal the thunder of my first-week preview I fear for the Welsh. They should get the better of Italy in Rome, though, and Ireland's Cardiff record is pretty poor so though I think they'll disappoint, the wooden spoon shouldn't really be a concern.

Predicted finish: 5th

ITALY (250/1)

The fact Italy are odds-on to register no victories in this competition says a lot. They've averaged less than a win a year in their Six Nations history (11 tournaments, seven wins) and having secured a victory over Scotland 12 months they're probably due a blank this season. That said they showed up well in the autumn, albeit in back-to-back defeats to Argentina and Australia and a narrow victory over Fiji. Coach Nick Mallett was "satisfied" with their efforts but they'll have to step things up to be competitive over the course of the Six Nations. With Scotland and Wales the only teams they've beaten in the competition's history it's those two games they'lltarget more than any but the Scots - particularly at Murrayfield - are a more fearsome prospect than they have been in recent years so it's hard to see past the home win in that one. Wales have to travel to Rome in week three prior to which they've hosted England and visited Scotland and that's the only game I give the Italians a squeak of winning. They've got a hugely-impressive front row, which could well be Wales' weakness given their injury problems in that area, but it'll be interesting to see how 20-year-old scrum-half in Edoardo Gori copes in a spotlight stronger than he'll have experienced thus far in his career.

Predicted finish: 6th

VERDICT

As you'll have probably gathered by the above, towards the top of the standings this is a really open Six Nations - the toughest to call for many a year. While I'd say England probably deserve their favouritism I think you can make a decent case for any of the top four teams above winning the competition - if they can find a drop of consistency over the five matches. Wales could propel themselves into the mix with a victory in their opening match against the tournament jollies but their cruel luck with injuries - in the front row particularly - will scupper them in my eyes. If you pushed me for England's closest rivals I'd give you Ireland at the prices, though in truth I've got them, France and Scotland all finishing on six points so they could easily finish fourth and as a result I'll steer clear of flagging them up as a tip. So how best to take advantage of this trappy contest? Well, while I'll grant you it's not a fancy old price I can't see past the 8/11 on there being no Grand Slam winner and we'll have a lumpy bet on that outcome as our headline tip. Though I think it's a tad unlikely, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that this will pay out as early as week two of the competition but over the course of the five weeks I simply don't think any team is good enough to win every game as you can throw a blanket over at least three of the top teams. Elsewhere, we'll oppose Wales by having a dabble on them to finish fifth. The fact they're the same price (4/1) to finish second and fifth suggests the layers can't decide on them but I think a first-week defeat by England will leave them behind the eight ball and though I can see them beating Italy, certainly I think they're a bit short of the other four.