"Leinster are purring and Jonathan Sexton is getting better and better at fly-half. Outside him Gordon D’Arcy and Brian O’Driscoll are playing in tandem in a manner that is all but unreadable to even the best defensive brains."
According to the ranking system of the website www.eurorugby.com, Leinster, Northampton and Leicester are the three best teams in the tournament, and Leinster's showdown with London Irish at Twickenham, Northampton's crunch encounter with Munster, and Leicester's clash with the Ospreys are all keenly anticipated.
Munster were the only side to register a road victory last weekend, which illustrates how difficult it can be to forget the parochial and tribal nature of this competition and win away from home. On the face of it, Leinster have the easiest task at Twickenham.
It must be highlighted here that London Irish didn't choose to relocate their crucial Pool Six clash with the reigning champions, but were forced by Reading's potential march through the FA Cup. The Exiles have given up a massive advantage in doing so, however. In Heineken Cup rugby, home teams win around 70 per cent of their matches. When teams play at neutral venues, but one side is favoured and considered a home team because the game is taking place in their country, the win ratio for 'home' teams in all cross-border competitions is roughly 60 per cent. What's more, some of those 'away' teams that lost came perilously close to winning.
London Irish completely blew it last week. Toby Booth's side enjoyed a 12-point advantage over the Scarlets, and then ended up losing by nine. It was a remarkable turnaround, and a mirror opposite to Leinster, who took an age to nail down the bonus point against Brive. I think this is a difficult game to read for in-running traders, especially as the extreme pressure to win is likely to play havoc with many punters' statistical models.
Leinster are purring at the moment, though, and Jonathan Sexton is getting better and better at fly-half. He is helped by the fact that outside him Gordon D'Arcy and Brian O'Driscoll are once again playing in tandem in a manner that is all but unreadable to even the best defensive brains. What this adds up to is that Irish should probably be at least four-point underdogs at the home of rugby. When Toulouse clashed with Irish at Twickenham in 2008 in the Heineken Cup, the triple European champions were considered six to seven point favourites for that match. They won 21-15. There is no reason to think that Leinster should be rated much below that.
After Clermont had completely dismantled the Ospreys last weekend, the Wales skipper, Ryan Jones, bleated that the savage crowd in the Stade Michelin was one of the primary reasons for his side's sorry 27-7 capitulation.
"It was colourful, it was loud and at times intimidating and I hope our fans can do the same this weekend," said Jones of his experience. "If we could create that at home we would be going some way to becoming one of the great teams in Europe."
What Jones, and in a similar vein, his coach, Sean Holley, failed to say was that one of the primary reasons why they lost down in the Auvergne was that their lineout was a total shambles. The Welsh region lost a quarter of their throw-ins, and hooker Richard Hibbard and co are going to have to be much more savvy against Leicester, who have one of the best lineout operations in the Premiership. It is a huge blow for the Tigers that they are without Tom Croft, who suffered a medial ligament injury last weekend against Viadana, as he provides an extra dimension at lineout time.
Still, Leicester have avoided defeat more times they have lost in Wales over the years, and last season's exciting penalty kick victory over Cardiff in the semi-final will give the Tigers belief that they can win at Liberty Stadium. I backed them last week in the tournament outright market at 34.0.
Finally, we come to Northampton's exhilarating clash with Munster at Thomond Park. It says a lot for Jim Mallinder's regime that several rugby pundits believe that the Saints have a prayer over in Ireland. Munster have one of the best records in Heineken Cup history at home, but Leicester well and truly blew away that aura in 2007 when they won 13-6 in round six of the 2007 Heineken Cup.
Northampton are playing some thrilling rugby at the moment, and are very effective with the ball in hand. I reckoned the visitors would be something in the region of seven to eight-point underdogs. There are some double-figure starts for Northampton available, however, and that must rate decent value, despite the Saints' short turnaround.
