“Things are going to be very tight. It’ll probably come down to one try or one score difference. It’s not a huge margin of error, but we’ve got to be on the right side of that.”
Two years ago, when Wales visited Twickenham, they were staring down the barrel of a thorough beating at half-time. A try by Toby Flood, and a couple of judicious three-pointers from Jonny Wilkinson saw the scoreboard at the interval read 16-6 in England's favour. Several television pundits predicted a complete rout.
When the teams came out again, England scored the first points of the second half and all seemed well. But then a switch was flicked. Wales edged back into the game, and then finished with a flourish to steal the grudge match 26-19.
Wind forward to 2010, and nothing seems to have changed. The Red Rose continues to wilt in the second half. England led Australia 9-5 at the break in their first fixture of this season's Investec series. They didn't score another point and lost 18-9. A late try from Bath wing Matt Banahan spared their blushes against Argentina a week later, but it was business as usual in their final game of the autumn against New Zealand. A Herculean effort saw England go into the changing rooms at 6-6 with the All Blacks, but once again fitness and concentration let them down and they slumped to a 19-6 defeat.
Twelve of the 20 tries that England have conceded under Martin Johnson have been after the 50th minute. They have conceded 108 points in the first half, and a massive 149 in the second half in his 13 matches in charge. In-running traders have had a field day, but will this malaise in the final quarter of Test matches continue?
"It's an area we have talked about," Johnson admitted. "I don't think it is fitness though. I think it is concentration and belief. We were in there in the final quarter last year at Croke Park and in Cardiff [and lost], but the last quarter is an area that we certainly need to improve upon. We've got to get ourselves into a position and finish it off."
Johnson maintains that this year's Six Nations is going to be about small margins. Last year England finished second thanks to three wins, and two defeats to Ireland and Wales. The total losing margin in those two games was just nine points.
"Things are going to be very tight," he continued. "It'll probably come down to one try or one score difference. It's not a huge margin of error, but we've got to be on the right side of that."
Johnson firmly believes that it is pressure that wins and loses Test matches. Much like the 2003 vintage which he led to World Cup glory, Johnson wants his side to absorb pressure through a solid defence, while converting it into points through Wilkinson's boot.
He said: "Defensively we have been pretty strong through 2009 - we averaged one try a game conceded. Kicking goals is still pretty important in winning Test matches, so not conceding penalties under pressure is vital. I think converting opportunities and pressure into points is key for us." The unders in the total points markets might therefore be worth a look.
If England fans are groaning at the repetitive nature of Johnson's mantra, they can at least draw strength from the fact that his side are back to something like full-strength. During the autumn internationals Johnson was without a whole host of key players, but the likes of Riki Flutey, Delon Armitage and Nick Easter all return. And despite what some critics would like to imagine, Johnson has experimented with his squad and brought in new blood. Thanks largely to the injuries to Phil Vickery and Andrew Sheridan, he has called up Worcester prop Matt Mullan and Leicester's exciting tight-head Dan Cole. And the England manager was looking forward to seeing both of them play a part in this year's tournament.
"We've had our eyes on Matt for quite a while," Johnson said. "He's an exciting young player and probably would have had an opportunity for a place in the autumn but he got injured. He's very mobile. Dan Cole is a very strong guy and is getting better all the time in the scrum."
With Wales boosted by the return of hirsute prop Adam Jones, it is likely that the Dragons will come to Twickenham on February 6th with an all Lions front-row. Wales have won the last three encounters between the two teams, and are 2.3 to make it four in a row. England are currently 1.8 for the match, and the pressure will be cranked up by the fact that the clash celebrates the 100th birthday of Twickenham stadium. Are England's young tyros ready for that challenge?
"Yeah, those guys are ready," Johnson counters. "Wales are formidable. They won the tournament with a Grand Slam in 2008 and they were fourth last year. It shows that there is not much between top and middle, but that's the call I've got to make."
