ATP World Tour final – Sunday 27 November, live on BBC 2 and Sky Sports HD 2 – 5:30pm

A repeat of day one will take place in the final of the ATP World Tour finals in London as Roger Federer faces Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

The pair played the opening match of the event a week ago, and due to the round robin format of the tournament, they have both made it through to the final.

Federer has looked pretty good in the tournament so far, with a 100% record including that opening day win over his final opponent, in three tough sets.

He dispatched one of his biggest rivals, Rafael Nadal, with some ease in the group stage, winning the second set 6-0 against the Spaniard. He’s looking close to his best again after a rare season without a Grand Slam title to his name.

This will be the great man’s 100th singles final. What an incredible achievement for one, if not the, greatest player to pick up a tennis racket. And in that final, he is looking for his 70th title in what has been a tremendous career for the Swiss superstar.

His semi-final performance to see off David Ferrer showed some resiliance. He looked second best at times in the opening set, but stuck at it and stayed in the set before breaking the Spaniard’s serve at 5-5 and from there on in, there was no looking back as he produced some sublime tennis.

With all those superlatives, you’d think the match is already Federer’s. But his opponent is a tough one and will not go down without a fight.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga showed in that opening match with Federer on November 20 that he can match the former world number one. He is strong on both sides and has a big serve, so he can certainly trouble Federer.

The Frenchman has shown good form this week. Aside from the early defeat by Federer, he has won the remainder of his matches, culminating in his semi-final demolition of Tomas Berdych.

In that semi-final, he dominated and saw off the best efforts of Berdych with some strong tennis, big serving and heavy groundshots. That, alongside his pace around the court will cause Federer problems which should make it a terrific match to end the season.

Federer is the strong favourite to lift the title, which would be the sixth time (a record) he will have won this title. He’s available at the best price of 3/10 (Unibet) and you have to say it would be a surprise if he doesn’t win. Tsonga is available at 3/1 (Boylesports) if you fancy the outsider.  I do believe that Tsonga could push him all the way to three sets though, and a Federer 2-1 victory can be backed at 16/5 (William Hill) which looks very good value.

Roger Federer: hot favourite for the title

On day five of the ATP World Tour finals, Group B’s round robin stage comes to an end with Roger Federer playing Mardy Fish, while Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is up against Rafael Nadal.

Federer is in prime position to qualify for the semi-finals of the season finale at the O2 Arena. The Swiss superstar has won both of his games to date, and thrashed Nadal 6-3, 6-0. A win would make sure of his place in the last four, but defeat could also see him through given the ccomplicated round-robin format of the tournament.

His opponent cannot get through, if I have understood things correctly, but is playing for pride. Despite his big serve, he shouldn’t have the weapons to defeat the Fed Express, unless Federer really relaxes and takes his foot right off the gas.

Federer to win in straight sets is the only bet to be on really in this one, at 4/11 (Betfred, Paddy Power).

The evening clash is an interesting one. Both Tsonga and Nadal are on one victory and one defeat each, so there is everything to play for.

Ordinarily, the Spanish star would be the favourite, but after a long, hard season, and seemingly suffering from a few niggling injuries, the bookmakers make the big Frenchman favourite at 4/6 (general).

Nadal is not in the shape he would like, and suffered the embarassment of being bagelled by Federer in his last match. But he remains the same battling character and I cannot see him putting anything less than 100% into this match. That style could well be enough to take this one.

That said, I think he would have to do it in straight sets if he is to win the match. If he loses a set, I can see Tsonga’s greater fitness paying dividends. But my tip will be Nadal 2-0 at 3/1 (888 Sport, Blue Sq).

Murray ruled out of the tournament

Andy Murray has been ruled out of the ATP World Tour finals at the O2 Arena with a groin injury. After losing his first match against David Ferrer on Monday, the Scot will take no further part in the tournament, with his place going to Janko Tipsarevic.

Tipsarevic is one of the least known of the World top 10 players. He has enjoyed a stady year without doing anything spectacular. After early defeats in the first 3 Grand Slam events, in New York he reached the US Open quarter-final, which is his best performance to date.

He comes in to play Tomas Berdych in the afternoon singles action in London. Although it’s a difficult situation to come into, (after all, he probably didn’t expect to play when he arrived in London at the start of the week), the Serb will be ready for action and it should be a good game against his Czech opponent.

Berdych lost out in a closely fought battle with world number one Novak Djokovic in his first match, losing in a final set tie-break. That demonstrates that he is in pretty good form and which makes him favourite with the bookmakers to win this match at 8/15 (Coral).

But I wouldn’t be surprised if Tipsarevic produced a bit of an upset. Having come into this with no match practise, he could be a dark horse and at odds of 19/10 (bwin) he seems a good price to me.

The evening’s entertainment will be provided by Djokovic and David Ferrer. Djokovic has had the longest season of anybody on the circuit due to his tremendous success. Fatigue seemed to be playing its role in his performance in victory over Berdych, and against a player like Ferrer, he could have a tough task on his hands with the Spaniard bound to get him running around and making him play every ball.

Ferrer was emphatic against Murray in his first game. Despite the British number one suffering from his injury, the performance was assured and complete and he looked at home on the blue court at the O2.

I fancy it to be a close one, but with Ferrer being fantastic value to win at 5/2 (Bet365, SkyBet, William Hill), that price is too good to turn down in my opinion. I suspect it to go all the way though, and a Ferrer 2-1 victory is available at 6/1 (Bet365).

All eyes will be on the Federer-Nadal game. Matches between the pair rarely disappoint, and this one, I’m sure, will be no exception. Both players played some good tennis in their opening matches, but they both went to three sets as Federer defeated Tsonga while Nadal edged past Fish after a third set tie-break.

The Spaniard has been very subdued in the build-up to this event. He hasn’t enjoyed as successful a season as he is accustomed to, and fatigue appears to be playing heavily on his mind as he appears very tired and lacking in his usual effervescence.

He ground out victory over Fish on the opening night, so his determination is still there, but he will have to lift his game in order to get a win over Federer.

The Swiss world number four, it still feels strange to think that Federer is ranked so low, showed glimpses of his genius in triumph over Tsonga on day one of the competition. It wasn’t vintage Federer, but it was good enough to see off the Frenchman.

He’s in good recent form having won titles in Basel and Paris in the last few weeks. With that in mind, the bookmakers have made him strong favourite at 1/2 (Ladbrokes, Stan James).

I’d say that the favouritism is justified, but Nadal won’t give him victory on a plate. A Federer win in three sets is good value at 16/5 (Sportingbet).

In the afternoon session, American Mardy Fish takes on Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

It’s not quite as attractive a proposition as the later match, but could be just as close. The two players both have big serves, and he who holds serve the best is likely to come out on top.

It really is the toss of a coin to try and predict the outcome of this one, so that is what I have done and it landed tails for Mardy Fish who is available at a very decent price of 6/4 (General). And I have a sneaky feeling he may well do it in straight sets, especially if his big serve is firing on all cylinders, and a 2-0 win can be backed at 7/2 (888 Sport, Betfred).

Murray is on home soil and as such is the huge favourite both with the supporters who will be in attendance in London and the bookmakers. He has been in terrific form of late, with a victory in the Shanghai Masters against Ferrer a couple of weeks ago one of his recent successes.

With the fans right behind him, and a good record against Ferrer in the past, I can only see a Murray victory in this one. He can be backed at 1/6 (Ladbrokes, Victor Chandler).

For slightly better value than 1/6, you can back Murray to win by 2 sets to love at odds of 8/15 (Ladbrokes).

In the second match of the day at the O2, Djokovic will be looking to finish his sensational year with one more title to add to his impressive list from 2011. He has enjoyed the best year of his career by far, including a four month unbeaten run at the beginning of the season which has helped him to reach the world number one slot in the rankings.

The one factor from all that success though is tiredness. It has been a long, hard season for the Serb and maybe, just maybe, that will play its part in this week’s event.

That may well play into Berdych’s hands. The Czech has been in decent form himself of late. The World number seven beat Andy Murray in Paris last week and goes into this game full of confidence.

That said, I still cannot see past Djokovic in this match. From his press conference before the event started, he seems very relaxed and quite at home in the British capital and that should help him to put in a good performance to see off Berdych.

It will be a tight match, but I’d tip Novak to win at 4/9 (Betfred, Totesport) and despite the fact that it should be close, I’d back him to win in straights sets, 2-0, at 11/10 (888 Sport, William Hill).

Roddick’s fellow American James Blake made it safely through, making light work of Fabio Fognini and there were victories for Simon, Berdych, Tipsarevic and Davydenko amongst others.

Djokovic, Nadal and Murray should all follow with routine wins. The unbeatable Serb has the late night slot against American Ryan Harrison but the help of the home crowd will be of little consequence with Nole playing the best tennis of his life. Djokovic’s 2011 domination is reflected in his 1/25 price, the 2/9 on offer from Sportingbet for a straight set win is reasonable value given the huge gulf between the players.

Eager to make amends for his disappointing exit to Dodic last week, Nadal takes on Julien Benneteau. The Spaniard rarely has one blip let alone two and can also be backed to seal the win in two sets at 2/7 with Betfred.

Andy Murray also fell rather meekly at the first hurdle last week in a straight set defeat to Kevin Anderson but the Brit would be expected to put that behind him and ease past David Nalbandian as he did in the Rogers Cup two weeks ago 6-2, 6-2.

Nalbandian defeated Japan’s Nishikori 6-4, 6-4 in round one but after defeat last week Murray will come out firing. Another two set win for the number 4 seed is on the cards at 8/11 with PaddyPower.
A straight set treble then brings up odds best odds of 2.66 with Boylesports and looks like a banker.

• 17.30 Andy Murray v David Nalbandian live on PaddyPower
• 17.45 Rafael Nadal v Julien Benneteau live on PaddyPower
• 00.05 Novak Djokovic v Ryan Harrison live on PaddyPower

*all times are GMT

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The seasoned Swiss has a tricky tie with Del Potro but the Argentine, partly due to injury, has not been at his best of late so Fed should have enough in the tank to make the next stage in his ATP Masters title defence.

Del Potro is always dangerous on this surface though as proven in 2009 when he defeated Federer in the final of the US Open. The 22 year old has suffered of late and slid down the rankings from 4 at the start of 2010 to a current 19 but that has largely been due to his injury enforced absences. Last week he enjoyed a comfortable win over Jarkko Niemenen 6-4 6-0 before defeat to Croat Marin Cilic, 3-6 4-6 in a match which could have gone the other way had Del Potro taken his opportunities.

Neither player would have wished for such a tough draw so early in the tournament but the winner will take great confidence into the next round. Reflecting on that defeat in 2009, Federer said this week it had been ‘one of the biggest losses in my career’.

Del Potro is certainly not to be discounted but is still far from reproducing the tennis which gave him his first Grand Slam. 16-time Slam winner Federer is strong favourite at 2/5 with PaddyPower but the value lies in a 2-1 set win for the former world number one at 11/4, Del Potro is more than capable of taking at least a set off the defending champion if given the chance but the maestro is far from finished, after all 30 is the new 29.

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• Set Betting: Federer 2-1

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Ajmo Nole! Djokovic continued his unbelievable year with yet another tour win in Montreal on Sunday night, defeating Mardy Fish in the final.

The Serbinator will now aim to become the first man since Agassi in ’95 to win back-to-back titles in Montreal and Cincinnati at the Western & Southern Open. With just one defeat in 2011 it is no surprise the world number one is the favourite at around evens to take the title. Eager to avenge last week’s first round elimination Nadal is next in line at 3/1.

The tournament is already well under way with Fabio Fognini springing a surprise on Nole’s fellow Serb Viktor Troicki. Meanwhile, Verdasco, Lopez and Gasquet claimed fine wins against tough first round opposition in the form of Bellucci, Ferrero and Dolgopolov respectively.

Murray, Tsonga and Federer are just some of the stars on show tomorrow as they look to emerge from Djokovic’s shadow. However, progress will not be easy in a tough field anxious for on-court time before the last Grand Slam of the year in New York which gets under way in two weeks time.

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Djokovic again heads up the ante-post betting to take his third slam of the year. Nole was defeated in last year’s US Open final by second favourite Nadal whilst 2009 Champion Del Potro – unable to defend his title due to injury – will be back at the scene of his greatest triumph.

An outside shot is Montreal finalist Mardy Fish at a massive 125/1 with Centrebet, considering the American took a set off Djokovic that price looks far too big particularly given the sway of the home crowd.

US OPEN BETTING ODDS

• Novak Djokovic         (6/4 Boylesports)
• Rafa Nadal         (3/1 Ladbrokes)
• Roger Federer         (6/1 Coral
• Andy Murray         (8/1 PaddyPower)
• Juan Martin Del Potro     (12/1 Ladbrokes)
• Jo-Wilfrid Tsonga    (37/1 Betfair)
• Mardy Fish        (125/1 Centrebet)

Aside from one or two minor shocks along the way the line-up for today’s quarter-final ties at SW19 are pretty much as expected.

The big four are there, joined by Lopez, Fish, Tsonga and this year’s surprise package, 18-year-old Aussie, Bernie Tomic.

Bernard Tomic v Novak Djokovic

Tomic faces player of the season Novak Djokovic in the tie that looks the most difficult to call today. The youngster has gate-crashed the tournament with some stunning displays, most notably his 3-0 win over 5th seed Robin Soderling. He was tipped up here to win in the last round too but he still remains a bit of an unknown quantity.

Tomic has become the youngest player to reach this stage since Boris Becker and if he wins today the comparisons won’t end there. But it’s likely to be all about Djokovic. He looked troubled during in his 3rd round win over Baghdatis but was back to his best against Llodra in round 4.

Djokovic is 1/8 (William Hill) to win it but I reckon Tomic could take a set off him. Either back him to win 3-1 (10/3 Stan James) or take the Australian to nick the first set at 7/2 with Paddy Power.

Rafael Nadal v Mardy Fish

We’re not entirely sure if Nadal has been given a clean bill of health but even a 50% fit Rafa should have enough in his locker to see off the plucky American.

30-year-old Fish beat last year’s finalist Berdych to make to the quarter-finals but Nadal is a whole different ball game. There won’t be an upset here unless Rafa breaks down and retires with that ankle injury – that has to be Fish’s only hope.

I’m not interested in a 1/7 winner so I’m going with Nadal to win in straight sets, surviving a tie-break or two, at 1/1 with Paddy Power.

Jo Wilfried Tsonga v Roger Federer

The likeable Fenchman has entertained the crowds en route to the quarter-finals but sadly his run will end today. Tsonga hasn’t quite lived up to the expectations that were upon him when he first arrived on the scene and although he has a good grass court game the one person he wouldn’t want to see on the other side of the net is Federer.

Federer has looked his imperious best at times so far in the tournament and I don’t expect Tsonga to get anywhere near landing the 11/2 odds on an upset. He may take a set from the Swiss legend however and I like the look of Bet365’s 5/6 about the number of sets being above 3.5.

Andy Murray v Feliciano Lopez

The big serving Spaniard is just the type of player Murray would have wanted at this stage. The Scot’s record against him will give him confidence, it’s 4 wins without defeat and the attacking nature of Lopez’s grass game will mean that Murray should be able to pick him off with passing and cross-court shots.

Murray is bidding to make his third semi-final appearance in a row and so far has enjoyed a comfortable passage, which is unusual. In previous years there’s been moments of doubt, with Murray being pushed to 5 sets and today could be that day. Murray is unbackable at around 1/10 but for a bit of longshot bet today go with Murray to win 3-2 at 9/1 with William Hill.

There won’t be any upsets today so if you fancy taking all four top seeds then go to Coral who offer the best accumulator odds, where a £10 will win you £6.90. Now, why didn’t I take Paddy Power’s pre-tournament 4/1 on all four to reach the semie?

After a rain-affected first week at SW19 it’s down to the serious business of week 2 at the All England Club and the temperature is rising on and off the court.

All eyes will be on Andy Murray, first up on Centre Court, as he bids to secure a berth in the quarter finals. He’ll have it tough against Richard Gasquet but should have enough in his locker to progress at the Frenchman’s expense. Odds of 2/9 (Bet365) aren’t for me however.

The other big three should also make it smoothly through to Wednesday, with Nadal looking the most likely to have to go beyond three sets against Del Potro. Back him to win a four-setter at 5/2 (Bet365, Paddy Power).

Here are a few other games that catch the eye from a betting perspective…

Bernard Tomic v Xavier Malisse

The young Australian has had a fantastic couple of weeks that has seen him rise to number one slot in his home country ahead of Lleyton Hewitt. Since negotiating 3 qualifying rounds he’s seen off players ranked 27th, 79th and 5th in the world, not bad for an 18-year-old who came into the tournament in a lowly 158 rank himself. It’s now 11 wins from 14 in a matter of weeks on the grass and his confidence must be sky-high, particularly after disposing of an admittedly under-the-weather Robin Soderling in straight sets on Friday.

His opponent Xavier Malisse also enjoyed a good first week at Wimbledon but he’s been a habitual one-weeker in previous years. His semi-final appearance here in 2003 is the only time he’s made it to the last 8 in a slam event and his record on the grass in London since reads like a DJ testing his mic (1, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 3).

Both men are on the cusp of one of their best tournament performances but I’d rather be on the emerging talent of Tomic than back a player who hasn’t cut here in the past.

• Bernard Tomic (6/4 Bet365, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, William Hill)

Marion Bartoli v Serena Williams

Serena Williams remains my pick for the women’s title but she’s not had it all her own way so far. She’s dropped a set in 2 of her 3 matches to date as she feels her way back to full fitness. She remains the powerhouse that has seen her dominate this tournament along with her sister but she’s far from 100%.

In Marion Bartoli she faces a former Wimbledon finalist and winner of the warm-up event at Eastbourne and if there’s to be an upset in Round 4 it might just be found on COurt Number one. The Frenchwoman is 7/2 (Sportingbet) to upset the odds.

But it would be foolish to bet against either of the Williams sisters at their favourite tournament and so I expect Serena to win a tough test over three sets.

• Serena Williams to win 2-1 (7/2 Sportingbet)