Andy Murray (GBR) v Rafael Nadal (SPA)

Preview by Betfair’s Ben Caudell.

The Spanish Bull is getting back to his best and is the value bet in this humdinger of a quarter-final

The early morning (GMT) match between the world number two and world number four has understandably been given top billing in Melbourne Park, and is the only featured match in the evening session on the Rod Laver court.

Andy Murray happens to be the one player left in the men’s draw who is still to drop a set from his opening four matches. He takes on Rafael Nadal today for the tenth time trailing in the head-to-head series 9-2. The last time Murray defeated the Spaniard was back in February 2009 at the Rotterdam ATP tour event final. Having played only three Grand Slam ties against one another, Nadal leads 2-1.

Murray will take some confidence in the knowledge that he was triumphant in their US Open encounter back in 2008, that Nadal has relinquished his number one world ranking to Roger Federer and is still trying to claw back the form and ability he had shown before his French Open loss to Robin Soderling which also culminated in a lengthy period on the sidelines due to persistent knee problems.

Nadal struggled to find any kind of rhythm in the World Tour Championships’ at London’s 02 Arena, losing all three of his round robin matches but has since gone on to play the kind of tennis we associate with the Spanish Bull. He looks a lot fitter and more comfortable playing on the slower Australian outdoor hard courts and there will be pressure on him to defend a large proportion of ranking points having won the title last year. Nadal is the ultimate competitor and will fight until the very end.

The Spaniard is likely to grind Murray down over the course of the more likely scenario of four or five sets, if this match comes down to a battle of survival and the will to win than Nadal is the most likely victor.

Also, be aware that Murray has been experiencing back pains on his serve which could have a drastic affect on the outcome of this match. Get ready for a classic, my heart says Murray but my head says Nadal.

Selections:

• Back Rafael Nadal @ 2.14 to win match
• Back Over 39.5 @ 1.85
• Lay Three Sets @ 3.5

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Will the winner of this year’s Australian Open be a former champion in the shape of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic or will we see a first-time winner? More importantly, which of the two options offers the best betting value, asks Betfair’s Simon Mundie.

This year’s Australian Open promises to be one of the most open in years, with more players having a shot at the title than since the early 2000’s. With that in mind, one market worth exploring is the ‘Men’s tournament- first time winner’. If you decided to bet yes at 1.9 (Betfair) that means you are backing any and all of the 125 players who have never previously won the tournament in the draw to take the title; whereas if you were to go the other way (2.0), you would be backing one of the ex-champions (Nadal, Djokovic or Federer) to go all the way once more. So the question is: which is the better choice?

It is difficult to bet against one of the world’s top two winning the title again, after all, they have won all but two of the last 19 Grand Slam tournaments between them. Federer alone has reached the last 22 Grand Slam semi-finals, a remarkable feat dating back over five years, and 17 of the last 18 finals, including all four in 2009. As for Nadal, he held three of the four Grand Slam titles this time last year before injury and Robin Soderling got in the way.

Federer rightly starts as favourite to win the Australian Open, but in truth he hasn’t been the best player on tour since prior to last year’s US Open. He last won a title in Cincinnati in August, and was beaten by someone other than Nadal in a Grand Slam at Flushing Meadows, which will have given many players on tour hope that they can do the same. He also failed to shine at the Masters Cup at the 02, and has lost his last two matches to Nikolay Davydenko, a player he had little trouble swatting aside in previous years.

As for Nadal, he hasn’t won a title since last May, and looks a shadow of the player he was 12 months ago. Most noticeable of course is his weight loss: previously the Spaniard was all rippling muscles whereas now he is significantly more streamlined. He has also admitted to confidence issues and doubting himself at crucial moments, as he did in the recent Doha final against Davydenko where he lost after squandering match points.

Djokovic certainly looked the best player on tour during the closing months of 2009, winning three titles after the US Open, including two Masters events. I deemed him to be favourite for the Australian Open after seeing how well he was playing on the indoor circuit; but then his Australian Open preparations took a dent when he was thrashed by Fernando Verdasco 6-1 6-2 at the Kooyang Classic in Melbourne this week. While it may only have been an exhibition event, that is still a worrying result for someone like him just days before a Grand Slam.

It’s clear, therefore, that there are question marks hanging over the title aspirations of all three former champions, but who else could realistically be expected to win?

Juan Martin Del Potro proved himself in winning the US Open, but his form dipped thereafter and he is currently suffering with a wrist injury. Andy Murray looks in good form despite his surprise loss to Tommy Robredo in the Hopman Cup and could become the new champion, although he disappointed in the majors in 2009 and there are those who believe his game isn’t suited to the best of five set format. Nikolay Davydenko, however, is one player the top three certainly won’t want to face; he is in the best form of his life, having won the Masters Cup and beaten both Federer and Nadal in consecutive tournaments; but has never reached a Slam final.

Andy Roddick has already won a title this season, and he reached the semi-finals of last year’s Open, while Fernando Verdasco, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Fernando Gonzalez, Robin Soderling and Marin Cilic could potentially go all the way with their power hitting. That makes nine possible winners outside the top three, although six of them would need to play the best tennis of their careers to win.

With that in mind then, my gut actually tells me that the better bet is to side with the former champions. They have the benefit of experience and the best draws, and while I think this will be the year when the balance of power shifts once again, the first month of the year may prove too early. Furthermore, I’m standing by my prediction that Djokovic will be the last man standing, despite that painful thrashing at the hands of Fernando Verdasco. It is, however, an extremely close run thing.

With a good record against the world number one and greater mental toughness, Andy Murray should be backed to defeat Roger Federer at the O2 Arena on Tuesday night, says Betfair’s Ben Caudell.

The lucky 16,000 odd thousand fans who managed to get a ticket for Tuesday evening’s match will be in for a treat. They will have the privilege of watching number one seed and multi-Grand Slam winner Roger Federer take on home favourite Andy Murray in a match that guarantees the winner a place in the semi-finals.

These two heavy-weights will be pulling all the punches in what I predict will be a close fought three setter with the eventual winner being the one who is stronger mentally and less likely to crack when the end is near. Both players possess strong mental toughness but there have been signs recently that Federer’s armoury isn’t as strong as it should be. Against Fernando Verdasco on Sunday night he was outplayed for much of the first and second sets. It was Verdasco’s inability to close out matches that saw Federer eventually take the match 6-1 in the third.

The head-to-head record between the pair reads 6-3 in Murray’s favour. Surprisingly, all nine matches have been played on a hard court surface and only four of the nine have been won in straight sets. Some of Murray’s best results have come on indoor courts and I believe the young Brit will want to prove that he is capable once again of beating the best player to ever grace the tennis world. Murray is playing at home so will have the advantage of the crowd’s support, There is less pressure on Murray at this event as opposed to the ridiculous Wimbledon propaganda that can have more of an adverse effect than a positive one.

This match is a must-watch; expect gritty, gutsy performances from both players. The average amount of games played in a match between these two is 27; therefore there is definitely value in backing Over 24.5 Games.

• Back Andy Murray @ 2.04 to win match
• Back Over 24.5 Games @ 1.94

Reproduced with permission from betting.Betfair.com. © The Sporting Exchange Limited

Fatigue, unpredictable levels of bounce, injuries and the upcoming end of year extravaganza in London will all play a part in who does well in one of the most difficult tournaments of the calendar to bet on but Nikolay Davydenko could go far, says

As predicted, Andy Murray proved himself too good for the field in Valencia, while once again injuries meant that both David Ferrer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga withdrew early on and longshot Juan Carlos Ferrero managed to lose after trading at 1.01 in his match with Pablo Cuevas!

Perhaps only Hull City boss Phil Brown can claim that a similar amount of bad luck has befallen him in the sporting world over the past few weeks than I have been subjected to by ‘tennis professionals’, but as with Brown, things can turn around quickly.

Exactly what is not required after a spell of bad luck though is the most unpredictable tournament in the ATP calendar to be next on the agenda – the Paris Masters.

Picking a winner at the Palais Omnisports in Bercy is the polar opposite of shooting fish in a barrel, as the list of previous titlists shows: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, David Nalbandian, Nikolay Davydenko, Tomas Berdych and Marat Safin have all won here in the last five years, so if you’re after a big priced winner – and lets face it we all are – Bercy is the place to do it.

Let’s look at the facts – the courts here (indoor hard) keep changing due to complaints from the players and attempts to speed up the surface have achieved only limited success.

The centre court has a reputation for being very slow, but oddly the number one court plays quite a bit quicker, so you’ll need to bear this in mind when punting on individual matches.

Rafa Nadal (7.8 Betfair) has been quoted as saying: “It’s slow and a lot easier for the players,” so if Rafa thinks the surface is slow you can guarantee that conditions are very slow indeed.

Generally, the winner in Bercy is pretty much the last man standing after an extremely long season, which goes some way to explain the poor records of the top seeds at the event.

Roger Federer (3.5 Betfair) has a shocking (for him) 7-6 record and has never been past the quarter finals here – the only event that the great man has ever retired from (against Blake in 2008).

Nadal, despite the courts being set up for him, has also never won here, although he did reach the final in 2007 (lost to Nalbandian).

Novak Djokovic (5.8 Betfair) has a poor 3-4 record in Bercy and has never bettered the last 16, while Andy Murray (5.3 Betfair) has a 5-3 record and has never been past the quarter finals.

US Open champion Juan Martin Del Potro (11.5 Betfair) has an equally bad 2-2 record here and is also carrying a wrist injury, so overall confidence in the market leaders is not exactly high, with the exception of Murray, who should go well again.

Davydenko also has to be high on anyone’s short list as he has won here before, has found the best form of his season late on in the year plus the best of the draw with injured Robin Soderling (40.0 Betfair) and swine flu victim Tommy Haas (200.0 Betfair) in his section.

Indeed, the bottom half of the draw that contains Davydenko looks perhaps the easiest to negotiate, with question marks over Tsonga, Nadal and Djokovic, who are also in that section.

Djokovic will be tired after his epic victory over Federer in Basel and will probably save himself for London, while Nadal is clearly nowhere near the player he was last season at the moment, due in part to injury.

Tsonga’s wrist caused him problems in Valencia, causing his retirement there, but you would think that he’d put up more of an effort in Bercy seeing as it’s home territory for him.

Stepanek, whose form at the moment is good, has a decent record here and at 200.0 (Betfair) he could be in with an outsider’s chance, as he keeps match sharp for the Davis Cup clash with Spain in a few week’s time.

A good strategy here could prove to be laying Federer in a tournament he cares little about and generally does poorly in, while backing Davydenko plus one of the outsiders with small stakes at a big price.

Recommendations:

• Lay Federer at around 3.5 (Betfair)
• Back Davydenko at around 21.0 (Betfair) plus one of either Cilic (50 Betfair), Stepanek (200Betfair) or Tsonga (32 Betfair) as a saver.

In this exclusive two-part interview he offers a fascinating insight into how he works, what challenges he faces and lets us in on his biggest ever punt.

So if you’ve ever wondered what makes a professional gambler tick, how they discipline themselves or just how much do they win at a time? Read on…

Hi Matt, thanks for taking time to have a chat…

No problem, happy to be here answering a few questions, just glad someone felt like asking

How long have you been a professional punter?

It’s becoming so long that I’m beginning to forget, time flies when you aren’t keeping track of it. Around 4 and a half years now. Not that long compared to some, but it feels ages.

Where did you work / what did you do beforehand?

I was a professional golfer before I was a professional gambler. Another slightly strange job, I don’t think I’ve ever had anything approaching a normal occupation. I was a teaching professional at a club, never really good enough to play on the tour – though as a teacher you get side tracked and bogged down in learning how to teach and earning a living so much that you never do get the chance to find out how good you could be. That was my biggest annoyance about that job, oh and it didn’t pay well either. I mean, really bad wages! Which was why when my boss came up with this horse racing system I decided to have a go…

And it was terrible! At the time I knew nothing about gambling, I didn’t know the maths or anything to do with horses. It was a massively flawed martingale type system and we promptly both lost our money! Not much money, but still, enough for me to want to take things into my own hands an learn why we lost. At school I was good at maths and loved puzzles, this to me was another one to figure out… I took a couple of months to learn gambling maths and learn what betting exchanges were about, which were still in their infancy at the time. I opened an account at flutter.com (now Betfair.com).

What encouraged you to go full-time?

Making money! Making many times my salary, not having enough time at work to trade and being close to being caught lots of times by people more senior than my boss (who didn’t mind at all watching me in the shop…) ! I could see how with more time to dedicate to it I could really increase the amount I was making. By this point I had stashed away a fair sum of money that would last me a long time – this was saved cash, not cash I was gambling with.

I always say that circumstances usually play an important part, and I had them all spot on when I began. I lived at home (no overheads) and I didn’t have a girlfriend at the time (no overheads!). It meant I had all day and night to spend doing this and build up my savings and my bank. If you make money, never stop stashing it away never to be touched again, you may just be thankful one day.

Obviously I was confident in my abilities to continue my success due to the method I was using didn’t look like changing soon.

How do you deal with the solitude of online punting?

I may moan about it occasionally on my blog, but really it’s not that bad. When I’m working I’m focused on what I need to do and how to do it as well as I can. When I’m not I’m indulging in a few of the interests that gambling has allowed me the time to learn and explore, which I otherwise might not have had in a normal job. I try to get out as much as I can, I’ve started playing tennis as well as betting on it, which has been enlightening, especially when playing competitive matches. Winter months I suppose can be the hardest, but I have plenty to keep myself occupied and I’ve never been one to be too bothered by spending time alone doing stuff.

For many people there is a stigma attached to gambling. How do they react when you tell them you’re a professional punter?

I tend to tell them I’m a day trader. Which has much less of a stigma attached. They inevitably ask what I trade, so I tell them sports and tennis, which usually gets a quizzical look, and so I begin to explain from there. Usually they are more open to what I have to say after attaching the term “trader” to it.

I think if you come straight out with, “I’m a professional gambler” you are immediately on a downer with some people. There’s a widespread belief that gamblers are losers and compulsives, that it’s a bit shady. And to be fair to them, there are an awful lot of people who lose, and have gambling problems. The general public are taught the stigma from an early age when their parents tell them not to go into the bookies, or of someone who had a problem. Then there’s the people who like a flutter here or there, there’s a lot of them. They know nothing about the maths of gambling, just how much they are putting on, how much they get back if they win, and who they think will win. The rest they trust to luck! If they lose it’s bad luck, if they win – their numbers came up, simple as.

It’s this ignorance of the maths which keeps people gambling, keeps bookies pockets lined, keeps those with addictive personalities coming back and scares off and builds a stigma amongst the rest. Bookies have no reason to suggest it’s anything to do with probability, they’d rather keep saying well done when someone wins and bad luck when they lose.

Do you still get a buzz from nailing a winner?

Yeah, I don’t think I’d be human if I didn’t. It depends very much on how much I’ve won though. I tend just to take whatever comes to me as all the same unless it is an unusually big win. The buzz of winning a large amount is possibly the most dangerous thing that happens to me psychologically. It takes focus away from the process of doing what I’m doing and onto the results. When you start looking at what you are winning and losing you start changing the process to suit that perception – not a good way of going about things. Before long you aren’t doing much right, and so something of a spiral begins. The only way is to really focus on doing things properly and forget what the profit or loss is. Admittedly, not easy – humans aren’t really programmed this way, it’s why it’s a hard job to succeed at!

Which sports / markets do you specialise in and why?

Tennis mostly. Because there’s a lot of it on and it’s popular, the markets are fairly liquid. Its also a two outcome market which keeps it simple, I’ve always liked one v one sports to trade. Darts, Snooker and Cricket are three others I can trade successfully, I just choose to dedicate most time to tennis currently and have done for 2/3 years now.

What’s a typical day for you? How many hours a day do you work?

A typical day is working when there’s work to do and trying to live a fairly healthy interesting life the rest of the time – not sure I succeed at that! I work on tennis, so I tend to work when it’s on TV, that’s when liquidity is at it’s best in the market. I’ve been trading the Australian Open this week, its basically a 24 hour a day job for 2 weeks if you include the work I put in to acclimatise myself to the time difference. I work from midnight until midday the next day and sleep in the afternoon from about 2 until as late as I can. I’ve found the more time I can spend asleep while it is dark the easier it is for me.

Some weeks there’s not much on, so I give myself the week off. I’m not tempted to dip into stuff if I’m not up for it and I rarely get that ‘missing out’ feeling. I’d rather do other stuff than gamble all day.

I’ll post Part 2 of the interview next week, where Matt tells us about his research and strategies and reveals how much his biggest gamble was worth. You can also see what he’s up to over at his blog at Punt.com.

…plus four hot favourites to swerve at Flushing Meadows from Betfair’s resident tennis expert.

It was another excellent week last week in New Haven, where Fernando Verdasco romped to the Pilot Pen title without dropping a set at 7.0 (Betfair) and what better way to reinvest those winnings than in some possible first round shocks at the US Open.

The tournament favourites look nailed on to win their opening encounters, including Roger Federer, who has somewhat ridiculously been matched with former junior runner-up and world number 1,364 Devin ‘D-Train’ Britton.

The ‘D-Train’ is 120.0 (Betfair) to derail Fed and whilst I won’t be rushing to back that, there are a few outsiders worth siding with over the next few days.

Andreas Seppi 2.56 to beat Phillip Kohlschreiber 1.62

Kohlschreiber has been on a miserable run of form on the hard courts since enjoying a decent clay court campaign and was beaten by Chris Guccione in Cincinnati.

The German has lost four of his last five matches on all surfaces and has been beaten in the first round in New York three times – his best performance here being a solitary third round effort in 2007.

Seppi beat Kohlschreiber on the only occasion that the pair have met and he has the better recent form, having won a challenger last month.

The Italian has only been defeated by Verdasco and Nadal in his hard court campaign and should provide a stern test for Kohlschreiber.

Fabrice Santoro 4.7 to beat Juan Carlos Ferrero 1.27

How can you not back ‘The Magician’ in his last ever appearance in a Grand Slam?

The genius French veteran has taken out Ferrero in two of their three hard court meetings, including at the Australian Open this year, and was a set to the good before tiring when the pair met at Wimbledon recently.

Santoro recently took six weeks off the tour and after a quick preparation in New Haven, where he beat Starace before losing to Davydenko, will be in top shape for what will be an emotional Slam farewell.

Ferrero lost to Cilic in straight sets in the first round in Cincy and looks tired after an exhausting campaign to get back into the top 20 in the rankings.

Mikhail Youzhny 2.10 to beat Paul-Henri Mathieu 1.88

After losing to Youzhny in one of the most famous chokes of all time in the Davis Cup Final decider in 2002, Mathieu has always struggled against the Russian.

Mathieu has won just one of the pair’s five meetings and admitted after his last match that he was lacking in confidence, something that has plagued the Frenchman throughout his career.

Youzhny on the other hand is a former semi finalist here and is playing the best tennis of his season so far following a poor campaign by his standards.

Giovanni Lapentti 2.2 to beat Simon Greul 1.80

Lapentti has been campaigning solely on the North American hard courts since week 29 on the Challenger circuit in preparation for qualifying here and has had some decent results, beating the likes of Nicolas Mahut on the way.

Greul by contrast has been playing on his favoured clay and hasn’t set foot on a hard court since March.

Lapentti also won the pair’s only meeting, which was on hard in Indian Wells.

Daniel Koellerer 4.5 to beat Mardy Fish 1.27

Bit of a long shot this one, purely on the basis that whoever Fish plays at the moment he will struggle.

The American has a broken rib, which he sustained on Davis Cup duty and has lost three of his last four matches since. Fish has been advised to rest for eight weeks and wouldn’t be playing if it were any other event than the US Open.

Koellerer should be able to take advantage of this situation, having won a challenger in Italy two weeks ago, but he remains more famous for his bizarre behaviour than for his tennis, so small stakes on this one.

Big priced favourites to think twice before lumping on include: -

James Blake at 1.13 to beat Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo

Blake has been injured since the Davis Cup in July and has been concentrating on opening a clothing line since. His comeback in Cincy was disappointing and he’s lost his last five matches in a row, plus Ramirez Hidalgo has beaten Blake on hard before.

Rafa Nadal at 1.09 to beat Richard Gasquet

What a first round match-up this is! Nadal should win, but Gasquet for once has no pressure on him and can swing from the hip with nothing to lose. Could be interesting.

David Ferrer at 1.05 to beat Alberto Martin

Ferrer has tendonitis and is unlikely to last long at the US Open this year. Also, Ferrer only leads the head-to-head series 4-3 and lost to Martin the last time they played, which was on a hard court.

Tommy Haas at 1.14 to beat Alejandro Falla

Tommy has lost three of his last four matches on the North American hard court swing and has been suffering with blisters on his hand lately.

Falla is no mug and has beaten Haas on a hard court before (in Miami in 2007).

Expect Haas to prevail, but not without a struggle against a dogged and awkward leftie opponent, who has beaten the likes of Gulbis and Sela of late.

Reproduced with permission from betting.Betfair.com. © The Sporting Exchange Limited

With the US Open starting next week and plenty of five set matches sure to take place, Betfair’s Simon Mundie tells us who we should be siding with when it comes to a decider and who we should be opposing at a time when stamina and mental strength is the name of the game.

With the US Open just about ready to get underway, it’s time for the players who can produce their best form when it really matters to step forward. Capturing a Grand Slam tournament is a vastly different animal from winning elsewhere on tour: obviously there’s the extra attention and pressure that comes from playing in the sport’s showpiece events, but even more important is that matches are played over five sets. Players would obviously rather not play too many five-set thrillers during the course of a Grand Slam tournament, but when they do have to go the distance who is likely to thrive and who is likely to fold?

The ‘Big Four’ are all exceptional when their matches go into a fifth set, as it’s that ability to dig deep and come up with the goods when the chips are down that sets them apart from their peers. Think back to the Australian Open of 2008 when Roger Federer was on the brink of defeat against the dangerous Serbian Janko Tipsarevic in the third round, down two sets to one and far from his best. In the fifth set of that match Federer dug deep and eventually took the match 10-8. For more recent evidence, his French Open semi-final win over Juan Martin Del Potro, or indeed this year’s Wimbledon final against Andy Roddick are evidence of his skill over five. Federer’s actual win/loss record in five set matches isn’t incredible (16-12), but that is partly down to losses early in his career. Against anyone bar Nadal, you would still expect the great man to come up trumps when a match goes the distance.

In Nadal’s case the best five setter he has been involved in was the Wimbledon final, again of 2008. Having been leading by two sets to love only to see his lead whittled away, Nadal managed to hold on despite Federer playing some quite sensational tennis to win his first major crown away from the clay courts of Paris; he then repeated the trick in this year’s Australian Open final. There is probably no one better when it comes to five set matches; the Spaniard has proved his mental and physical resilience time and time again.

As for Andy Murray, his career really took off after he proved he had the necessary steel and determination in beating Richard Gasquet in five sets at Wimbledon from two sets down, also in 2008. That match was pivotal for the Scot as since then he has gone from strength to strength to his current position as the new World number 2; his career win-loss in five setters is fairly impressive at 9 wins against 5 losses.

Some people may think that Novak Djokovic’s five set record would be slightly suspect, because of his tendency to let his head drop and his willingness to pull out of matches at the slightest hint of injury. The reality is somewhat different though, when it comes to the crunch he knows how to tough it out: he has won more than three quarters of the five set matches he has played in his career (8-2), so do not bet against him in the cauldron of a fifth set.

Outside of the ‘Big Four’ then, who enjoys the drama of a five setter, and who is likely to fold? One player who knows all about digging deep on a tennis court is LLeyton Hewitt, renowned for his ‘mongrel’ spirit. The Australian has played more five set matches and had more five set wins during his career than any other active player, winning 29 and losing just 13. Get him deep into a fifth set and you know his opponent is going to have to produce something special to win the match.

Andy Roddick managed to achieve exactly that in the Wimbledon quarter finals this year to beat the Australian, yet his record in matches that go the distance is nothing to write home about. Surprisingly the Nebraskan has won 11 five-setters, but lost 13 during the course of his career.

It is well worth keeping your eyes peeled to see whether several other players’ matches go the distance during the Open, as their record in five setters is particularly poor. The big serving Ivo Karlovic finally got the monkey off his back when he beat James Blake in Davis Cup action earlier this year in five sets; up until that point he had played 11 five set matches, and lost each and every one. However, that solitary win wasn’t a total shock when you bear in mind James Blake’s record: he had won four and lost eleven prior to that defeat. The flaky Frenchman Paul Henri-Mathieu is another to avoid backing in bruising five set encounters, having won 3 and lost 8.

Juan Martin Del Potro, a potential winner at this year’s final Grand Slam stop hasn’t yet proved himself when a match goes to a fifth; his record stands at 2-2, and the question marks over his fitness will remain until he wins a few more.

What about those players you should avoid betting against when their matches go into a fifth set? The Spaniard David Ferrer has an exceptional record in five-setters, winning 11 and losing just 3. While he isn’t the most talented player on tour, his ability to grind out matches has really enabled him to achieve more than he would have hoped for early in his career. Despite losing to Murray in five at Wimbledon this year, Stanislas Wawrinka is another man whose record in five-setters is impressive, winning 12 five-setters against just 4 losses.

While the majority of matches during the course of the US Open fortnight will not go the full distance, when they do, the formbook can be somewhat thrown out of the window because, as Boris Becker once said, when you get into the fifth set in a Grand Slam, it’s “not about the tennis, it’s about the heart and mind”.

Reproduced with permission from betting.Betfair.com. © The Sporting Exchange Limited

Murray v Tsonga

There’s more than just a place in the final at stake for Andy Murray when he squares up to Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at the Montreal Masters this evening. A win for the Scot will take him up to 2nd in the ATP World Rankings, leapfrogging Rafael Nadal who lost to Juan Marin Del Potro in the quarters.

It’s fair to say that Murray would have been expecting to be facing World Number 1, Roger Federer, in the semi-final, especially when the Swiss was 5-1 up in the final set and his opponent was taking time out to deal with an injury. But Tsonga fought back superbly and took the final set in a tie-break to set up tonight’s clash.

The two players have met twice before, sharing a win each. Tsonga however won the most important in the Australian Open back in January 2008. But it’s Murray who has gone from strength to strength since then and he’s hot favourite to make it through to the final. Murray goes into the game fresher, after a scrappy but easier 2-set win over Juan Carlos Ferrero. Whilst Tsonga will be confident after disposing of Federer don’t underestimate what that injury and a 3-setter (2 of them tie-breaks) will have taken out of him.

Tsonga is widely available at 7/2 (Bet365, Boylesports, Expekt, Stan James, VCBet) or 4/1 on the exchanges (Betfair), whilst the best you’ll get on Murray is 2/9 (Canbet, Paddy Power, Skybet) or 1/4 (Betfair). Those odds look a bit too skinny for me, so I’m lookign for Murray to win this one early and not to drop a set. He can be backed to win 2-0 at 5/6 with Betfair. Come on Andy!!!

Tonight he faces Juan Martin Del Potro, conqueror of Rafa in the last round, for a place in the final. DelPo has signalled his arrivalat the top table this season with some powerhouse performances and his latest win will have made quite a few sit up and take notice but in Murray he faces another player in sizzling form. Since dropping his opening set of the tournament to Juan Monaco, the Scot hasn’t faced a set point while losing a total of just four games in his last four sets.

Semi Stroll for the Scot?

The bookies aren’t taking any chances and Murray is a measly 1/3 (Blue Sq, Coral, Skybet) to win the semi. On the face of it those look skinny odds but Del Potro’s win over Nadal must have taken a lot out of him and it’s often hard players to raise their game again so soon after a massive win. Murray, on the other hand, has just moved up the gears this week and looks like he’s got plenty left in the tank.

Double your money on Murray

Whilst 1/3 doesn’t appeal too much the 1/1 (Betfred, Blue Sq, Boylesports, Totesport) on the boy from Dunblane winning the tourney look pretty decent. Had Djokovic not defeated Federer then Murray could have expected to replace the Serb as World number 3, as it is he’ll need to settle for some kind of revenge by taking the Miami title.

This looks like being a massive season for Murray and I’m jumping on the bandwagon early doors and grabbing some of that even money before it gets slashed following a win tonight.