Betting Preview Courtesy of Betfair.com

“If you look at the first Test objectively, the Lions were massively outclassed. Any side that can take off their five best players and still be 26-7 ahead with 13 minutes to go is in complete control.”

When betting on any sporting event in a foreign land that involves a British team, it is always wise to read the local reports. The process gives you an objective view, which is crucial to betting. And if you were to believe the British press without consulting their South African counterparts in the lead up to Saturday’s Test match between the British & Irish Lions and the Springboks, you probably wouldn’t see anything wrong with backing the tourists at 3.65 to win the vital clash in Pretoria on Saturday.

That would be an enormous mistake though, because quite simply, if you look at the first Test objectively, the Lions were massively outclassed. Any side that can take off their five best players and still be 26-7 ahead with 13 minutes to go is in complete control. The Lions’ pack was demolished. They lost four scrums from 11 feeds, and Phil Vickery gave away four penalties, from which nine points were taken. In all the hullaballoo about Vickery, analysts seemed to miss the fact that the Lions lost three line-outs – from just nine throws – and one of those was a catch and drive which resulted in a touchdown. The 30-metre steamrollering in the maul was painful to watch, too.

A Lions fightback to take the scoreline to 26-21 it may have been, but consider actually what you saw up front on Saturday in that final quarter. There were just three scrums once all of the front-row changes had been made – a flimsy formguide for those who believe that forwards coach Graham Rowntree can somehow work the oracle in just seven days.

What’s more, the Lions have been encamped in Cape Town ever since that loss. Anyone who tuned in to watch the Emerging Springboks salvage a draw on Tuesday will have seen what the weather was like. Driving rain, squalls and cold temperatures have beset the Cape all week. A wet and windy training ground at sea level is no preparation for a crunch Test match in sunny Pretoria, 1,753 meters at altitude.

The British press have tried to dismiss the altitude factor by saying that only half the Springbok squad ply their regular trade on the high veld, but they ignore the fact that the squad were camped in Johannesburg when they met up, and they play there regularly during the Super 14 season. Line-outs are more of a feature in games at altitude, because the ball flies further, encouraging a territorial kicking game. The Lions have ignored this by keeping Stephen Jones at fly-half at the expense of Ronan O’Gara, who likes nothing more than kicking to the corners. If Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha can dominate the throw-in once more, it could be curtains for the tourists.

The current price of 1.41 about the world champions indicates a handicap line of between six and seven points, something which is echoed by most high street bookmakers, although some are offering a more realistic nine-point start. Rugby betting expert and former Bath lock Brian Cusack believes that it will be harder for the Lions to rectify their weaknesses.

“On the one hand you can say that South Africa will shore up their centres, and will go on and win comfortably. On the other, you could say the Lions will make their pack meatier and will be competitive. I think the former is easier to achieve and much more likely.”

That outlook is shared by the Springboks assistant coach, Gary Gold. “The Lions know where they went wrong in Durban and we are expecting a much more intense forward onslaught from them,” Gold said. “But if they feel more confident because of the way it went for them in the last 20 minutes, and feel they now have the answers to where they went wrong, then we are happy for them to think that.

“They will be thinking that they just need parity to beat us. We are working hard on our defence this week, but we would still like to prevent them from getting too much ball through their pack, which is one of the reasons we have included five forwards on our bench.”

The Lions face a massive task on the high veld. They will look to press home their advantage in midfield where Brian O’Driscoll and the admirable Jamie Roberts have a significant edge over the injured Adrian Jacobs. They will hope that Matthew Rees and Adam Jones will shore up a faulty scrum and that Simon Shaw, who is the tallest, and by far the heaviest lock on tour, will beef up the pack. And even if Luke Fitzgerald does finish better than the hapless Ugo Monye, all this is still unlikely to be enough. South Africa will be better.

Only twice in Lions history have the tourists come back from 1-0 down to win a series. A lot has been written about Ian McGeechan’s impressive coaching performance in 1989 when a Finlay Calder-inspired Lions roared back against Australia. But it was 90 years earlier when the Lions managed it the first time. Reverend Matthew Mullineux led the Lions to a 3-1 series victory over Australia, having lost 13-3 in the first Test in Sydney. God, it seemed, was on their side, and he may have to be again if the Lions are to salvage anything in the Rainbow Nation this time around.

Preview courtesy of Betfair

SO what do we make of the British and Irish Lions tour opener against a less than star-studded Royal XV on Saturday?

The positives were that they scored 24 unanswered points in the final 15 minutes to win 37-25 – they had drifted from 1.01 to 4.1 on Betfair before their late show – but in the previous 65 their play looked laboured, their ball skills and handling were woeful, and most of the players looked way off the pace in their first run-out.

In the set-pieces, they may have had the upper hand in the scrum, which to be perfectly honest you would expect against a second-tier side like the Royal XV, but they got little or no joy from the opposition throws at the line-out.

So the tourists will have to significantly up their game against Super opposition in the shape of the Golden Lions on Wednesday night.

Granted, when it comes to Super 14 opposition, the Lions are certainly no Blue Bulls. They finished 12th in the competition and conceded the most points of any of the sides, shipping 414 points in 13 games at an average of 31.8 a game.

And tie in the fact that they are missing several key players, and having left some first-choice personnel on the bench, and the game looks to be far less daunting for the Lions than it could have been.

The Super 12 side without three former Springboks in lock Jannes Labuschagne (lock), prop Heinke van der Merwe (prop) and wing Henno Mentz.

And they are without six other squad players, notably two other locks, and have decided to leave Earl Rose and Todd Clever on the bench, so the tourists will be relieved that they are not facing a full-strength side.

And, crucially, probably their most influential player, current international centre Jaque Fourie, was not even considered for the game as he has to join up with the Springbok squad on Monday.

But even so, the South African side is a very big unit indeed, will be buoyed by the return of their influential captain and blindside flanker Cobus Grobbelar and played their better rugby towards the end of the campaign when they signed off with a 27-22 defeat of the Highlanders and just a five-point loss to the Tahs.

And in Andre Pretorius they have an experienced hand at fly-half and a reliable goalkicker. So the Lions may have their work cut-out to overcome the 13.5 point handicap on Betfair and match odds of 1.24 are only for the brave.

But it has to be said that Ian McGeechan has put out a far more menacing side here than he sent on to the field at the weekend.

One would have to expect that his scrum will be dominant again on Wednesday night – especially as the home side are without van der Merwe in the front row and their top three players in the engine room are all missing – and the back five of the Lions looks a more balanced and effective unit.

If they can supply some decent ball (and the problem on Saturday is that the Lions failed to hold on to the ball, thus denying any continuity), the back-line captained by Brian O’Driscoll and steered by Welsh pairing Mike Phillips and Stephen Jones should see a far more polished performance.

Whether or not that will be enough to cover the 13.5 point against far better opposition is a tough call, though.