Khan is a tempting 9/20 (Expekt) to beat the more experienced Kotelnik who is as big as 2/1 (Betfred, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Skybet, Sportingbet, Stan James) to retain the belt. The 31-year-old may be giving Khan 9 years but he has never been knocked down in his 34-fight career and regularly takes fights all the way. Khan is 6/4 (Bet365, Boylesports) to win by decision – quite likely with a hme crowd behind him whilst Kotelnik is 11/2 (Bet365) to win it via the judges. William Hill offer 5/6 that the bout will go the distance, regardless of who wins.

All the hype is understandably around Khan and my money will be on the Pride of Bolton. 2/1 on the KO method of victory does appeal but Kotelnik’s record of lasting the course puts a bit of a dampner on that one so I’ll be taking the 9/20 (Expekt) for the outright win.

Article courtesy of Betfair.com

“Pietersen has failed to top score in four of England’s last five Test series. It is hardly a great record for such a short-priced favourite”

There are many questions punters must ask themselves when preparing to bet on an eagerly-anticipated Ashes series. Which side is more likely to take 20 wickets? Do Australia really have a weakness against spin? Have England been flattered by their recent series victory over West Indies? No doubt they will be discussed and debated with fervour. So too should this one: is Kevin Pietersen a bad favourite to be top England runscorer?

KP is currently trading at 3.80 to outscore his teammates over five Tests. It is a price which is short enough on reputation alone. Pietersen bestrides the biggest of stages with hips swinging in a cocky swagger that would knock off friend and foe alike from the apron had his cumbersome ego not got there first. It can be a hypnotic sight and trance-like, one can often place your hard-earned on him to do the business.

The problem with Pietersen too often recently that cash that you felt was in the safest possible of switch-hit hands has gone down the drain. Pietersen has failed to top score in four of England’s last five Test series. He didn’t even make the top three earlier this summer against West Indies.

It is hardly a great record for such a short-priced favourite and one cannot but feel that instead of Pietersen charging bull-like out to the crease as if he is the second coming, he would be better placed treading more carefully.
The worry we have with Pietersen’s price, however, is the very thing that makes it so appealing. It is the ego which has got him in to trouble in the past (remember him throwing his wicket away when a century was there for the taking in Kingston in February) and it is his ego which could steer him clear in the Ashes.

When it counts, Pietersen is the man. In his first series, the 2005 Ashes, he memorably top scored. He repeated the trick Down Under when all around him batsmen were losing their heads. And against South Africa last summer, he didn’t disappoint notching nearly 100 runs more than any other Englishman.

The conclusion you should be drawing is that to back Pietersen would be doing so on emotional grounds – never the shrewdest of moves. For that reason Ravi Bopara could be the value at 5.10. He has that all-important braggadocio but more importantly he might just have the composure that Pietersen can crucially lack.

Bopara top-scored against West Indies last time and if you cast your mind back farther you should recall him scoring a precocious 135 against the Australians at Chelmsford in 2005.

Andrew Strauss, with three first-place finishes in England’s last five series deserves respect at 4.80 while those wanting a batsman to trade should seriously consider Matt Prior at a whopping 18.50.

If Pietersen is a dubious jolly for top batsman, there are no such question marks over James Anderson who heads this market at 3.55. His ability to swing the ball both ways at 90mph is absolutely crucial to the home side’s chances in the series because of Australia’s weakness against swing. This is not perceived. They struggled with it in 2005 and there are enough survivors from that batting order (Katich, Clarke, Ponting) to give Anderson optimism.

Stuart Broad, third favourite at 4.90, would be next best for the simple reason that over the last 12 months his strike of 66.3 is actually superior to Anderson’s (67.6). Broad, a smart bowler, has made the top three England wicket-takers in the last two series.

Bad value comes in the form of Graeme Swann at 4.50. Yes he could trouble a potential Aussie top order of four left-handers (Hughes, Katich, M Hussey, North) but there is precious little evidence they have a weakness against orthodox spin. Awful value is Andrew Flintoff at 5.60. It would be a major surprise if he is fit enough to play all five Tests. And on that note, you do know that KP is having trouble with his Achilles don’t you?

Yesterday saw managerial flop Tony Adams claim he was in the frame should former Hoops manager, Wim Jansen return to paradise as Football Director. A claim that was quickly rubbished by Celtic and led a few to question whether big Tone was back on the sauce. But that didn’t stop the bookies dramatically cutting the odds on the former Arsenal stopper taking up the hotseat. William Hill have him as short as 7/1, but Blue Sq go a more realistic 16s.

But all the money recently has come for Swansea’s Roberto Martinez after Celtic reportedly asked for permission to speak to the Spaniard. News of the approach has receive a lukewarm reception from the Hoops faithful, after all shouldn’t a club like Celtic be aiming higher than plucking their next boss from the middle of the Coca-Cola Championship?

Martinez is reportedly keen on the role but with the imminent move by Steve Bruce to Sunderland, Wigan may provide some stiff competition to Celtic to land their man. Further credence and a bit of 2 plus 2 equalling 5 is added to the Martinez debate by the fact that his wife is a Glaswegian and a spell back in Scotland would be a very welcome family move. Martinez can be backed at 15/8 with Blue Sq and I think he fits the profile of the Celtic board.

Despite the rebuttals, Owen Coyle still remains in the frame according to the bookies and is currently joint second favourite alongside Tony Mowbray at 3/1 (Paddy Power, William Hill).

Other outsiders worth keeping an eye on are Roy Keane (28/1 Paddy Power), Steve Clarke (33/1 Paddy Power) and Glenn Hoddle (33/1 Paddy Power).

But who know what today will bring. Who’s your money on?

Preview courtesy of Betfair

SO what do we make of the British and Irish Lions tour opener against a less than star-studded Royal XV on Saturday?

The positives were that they scored 24 unanswered points in the final 15 minutes to win 37-25 – they had drifted from 1.01 to 4.1 on Betfair before their late show – but in the previous 65 their play looked laboured, their ball skills and handling were woeful, and most of the players looked way off the pace in their first run-out.

In the set-pieces, they may have had the upper hand in the scrum, which to be perfectly honest you would expect against a second-tier side like the Royal XV, but they got little or no joy from the opposition throws at the line-out.

So the tourists will have to significantly up their game against Super opposition in the shape of the Golden Lions on Wednesday night.

Granted, when it comes to Super 14 opposition, the Lions are certainly no Blue Bulls. They finished 12th in the competition and conceded the most points of any of the sides, shipping 414 points in 13 games at an average of 31.8 a game.

And tie in the fact that they are missing several key players, and having left some first-choice personnel on the bench, and the game looks to be far less daunting for the Lions than it could have been.

The Super 12 side without three former Springboks in lock Jannes Labuschagne (lock), prop Heinke van der Merwe (prop) and wing Henno Mentz.

And they are without six other squad players, notably two other locks, and have decided to leave Earl Rose and Todd Clever on the bench, so the tourists will be relieved that they are not facing a full-strength side.

And, crucially, probably their most influential player, current international centre Jaque Fourie, was not even considered for the game as he has to join up with the Springbok squad on Monday.

But even so, the South African side is a very big unit indeed, will be buoyed by the return of their influential captain and blindside flanker Cobus Grobbelar and played their better rugby towards the end of the campaign when they signed off with a 27-22 defeat of the Highlanders and just a five-point loss to the Tahs.

And in Andre Pretorius they have an experienced hand at fly-half and a reliable goalkicker. So the Lions may have their work cut-out to overcome the 13.5 point handicap on Betfair and match odds of 1.24 are only for the brave.

But it has to be said that Ian McGeechan has put out a far more menacing side here than he sent on to the field at the weekend.

One would have to expect that his scrum will be dominant again on Wednesday night – especially as the home side are without van der Merwe in the front row and their top three players in the engine room are all missing – and the back five of the Lions looks a more balanced and effective unit.

If they can supply some decent ball (and the problem on Saturday is that the Lions failed to hold on to the ball, thus denying any continuity), the back-line captained by Brian O’Driscoll and steered by Welsh pairing Mike Phillips and Stephen Jones should see a far more polished performance.

Whether or not that will be enough to cover the 13.5 point against far better opposition is a tough call, though.

Here’s this weeks tips from Mr Fixit, Andy Totham and Andy Townsend (Check out how they did last week).

Mr Fixit (Daily Record)

HOMES

• Aston Villa 7/5 (Coral, Skybet)
• Man City 3/4 (Blue Sq, Paddy Power, Totesport, William Hill)
• West Ham 13/10 (Coral, Totesport)
• Liverpool 4/7 (Paddy Power, VCBet)
• St Mirren 1/1 (Expekt, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power)

AWAYS

• Chelsea 19/20 (Centrebet)
• Rangers 8/15 (Betfred, Paddy Power, Skybet, William Hill)
• Shrewsbury 9/5 (Betfred, Boylesports, Totesport)
• Inter Milan 11/8 (Stan James)
• Juventus 4/9 (Ladbrokes, Skybet, Stan James, Totesport)

DRAWS

• Hull v Man Utd 11/4 (Totesport)
• Millwall v Scunthorpe 7/3 (Betfred, Centrebet)
• Inverness v Falkirk 12/5 (Betfred, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Skybet)
• Chievo v Bologna 4/7 (Bet365)

TOP TREBLE

• Aberdeen 19/20 (Bet365)
• Celtic 1/4 (Boylesports, Coral, Expekt, Paddy Power, William Hill)
• Rangers 8/15 (Betfred, Paddy Power, Skybet, William Hill)

BONKERS BET

• Barry Ferguson to score title clincher 14/1 (William Hill)

SUPER SINGLE

• Aston Villa 7/5 (Coral, Skybet)

Andy Totham (The Sun)

SIX-UP

• Arsenal 4/11 (Skybet)
• Aston Villa 7/5 (Coral, Skybet)
• Fulham 6/5 (Centrebet)
• Chelsea 19/20 (Centrebet)
• West Ham 13/10 (Coral, Totesport)
• Liverpool 4/7 (Paddy Power, VCBet)

SPECIALS

• Middlesbrough, Newcastle, Hull & Sunderland to get less than 5 points between them 5/6 (Bet365)
• Aston Villa to finish 5th without the big four 15/8 (Boylesports)
• Shrewsbury, Scunthorpe & Burnley to go up 13/2 (Paddy Power)
• Celtic to win the SPL 5/2 (William Hill)

LONGSHOT

• Arsenal, Aston Villa, Fulham, Man Utd, Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea, West Ham, Celtic 234/1 (Betfred)

DIAMOND

• Newcastle, Sunderland & Middlesbrough not to score 25/1 (Boylesports)

TOT’S TREBLE

• Aston Villa 7/5 (Coral, Skybet)
• Fulham 6/5 (Centrebet)
• Chelsea 19/20 (Centrebet)

Andy Townsend (The Star)

• 4* Aston Villa 7/5 (Coral, Skybet)
• 1* Aston Villa 2 Newcastle 1 9/1 (Blue Sq, Skybet, William Hill)
• 1* Carew to score first 7/1 (Coral, Paddy Power)
• 1* Barry to score 13/2 (Coral)
• 4* Hull v Man Utd – Draw Draw 11/4 (Totesport)
• 1* Hull 1 Man Utd 1 13/2 (Blue Sq, Skybet)
• 1* Macheda to score first 7/1 (Coral)
• 1* Cousin to score anytime 10/3 (Coral, Paddy Power)
• 3* Chelsea 19/20 (Centrebet)
• 1* Sunderland 0 Chelsea 1 7/1 (Stan James)
• 1* Anelka to score first 5/1 (Bet365, William Hill)

TOWNSEND’S TIPS

• Arsenal 2 Stoke 0 6/1 (Skybet)
• Blackburn 1 West Brom 13/2 (Blue Sq, Skybet)
• Fulham 1 Eveton 0 7/1 (Ladbrokes, Stan James)
• Liverpool 2 Spurs 0 7/1 (Skybet)
• Man City 2 Bolton 0 8/1 (Skybet)
• West Ham 2 Boro 1 9/1 (Blue Sq, William Hill)
• Wigan 1 Portsmouth 1 6/1 (Bet365, Blue Sq, Canbet)

Shakhtar Donetsk v Werder Bremen
UEFA Cup Final – Live on ITV4. Kick off Wednesday 7.45 pm

The bookies appear to be favouring another German name being carved onto the famous old trophy but delve a little deeper and it looks like there may be value in backing Shakhtar to spring a surprise.

Key players out for Bremen

Man United may be feeling aggrieved that midfielder Darren Fletcher will be suspended for next week’s Champions League Final after an unwarranted red card but that’s nothing compared to Werder Bremen who go into Wednesday’s UEFA Cup final against Shakhtar Donetsk without arguably two of their most influential players of the campaign. Hugo Almeida and Diego both picked up bookings in the semi-final clash in Hamburg that will rule them out of the decisive match in Istanbul.

News that Claudio Paziarro may also be out injured will have done nothing to lift the gloom surrounding Bremen ahead of the match. Since dropping into the Champions League from the UEFA Cup that trio have netted 12 of Bremen’s 15 goals, so their absence will be keenly felt.

Shakhtar, on the other hand will only be missing Tomáš Hübschman from a defence that has conceded just 5 goals in 8 UEFA Cup ties. And while their back-line may have taken some of the plaudits they’re not short of attacking flair either with the likes of Srna, Fernandinho, Jadson and Luiz Adriano in their ranks.

Form book doesn’t lie

It may have been a weak Spurs side that Shakhtar disposed of in the round of 32, but since then they’ve gone on to knock-out CSKA Moscow, Marseille and Dynamo Kiev – all of whom sit in first or second place in their respective leagues.

Domestically, Shakthar had an awful start to the season, winning just one of their opening nine fixtures, but since then they’ve gone from strength to strength, losing just once in their last 22 league games and have won all but one since the Ukrainian league resumed in early March.

Skakhtar are in 2nd place in the top division in Ukraine, but Werder Bremen find themselves in a lowly 10th position in the Bundesliga – perhaps that is a key indicator of the form of both sides this season.

Bremen haven’t really got going all season and their form away from home has been abysmal. They’ve won just 2 of 16 on the road in Germany, although notably they were a 5-0 win at Frankfurt and a stunning 5-2 win over Bayern Munich, but it’s hardly the kind of form you want to be taking into a European final.

Bookies odds just don’t add up

It all makes me wonder why Bremen are 13/8 (Skybet) favourites to win the Cup in 90 minutes, versus the 15/8 available at Betfred on Shakhtar becoming the first Ukrainian side to win a major European honour by winning the game.

Football history would point to a good German side beating a good Ukrainian side but don’t fall into that trap. German football is at a low ebb and recent UEFA Cup wins for Zenit St.Petersburg and CSKA Moscow prove that football in Russia and it’s former states is in good health. For me the smart money has to go on Shakhtar. The 15/8 does appeal but without Diego, Almeida and possibly Pizarro I think the Germans could try to sit tight and keep themselves in the game so I wouldn’t rule out the draw (12/5 Betfred). Skybet currently go 10/11 on Shakhtar to lift the trophy and that looks a good bet to me.

“Everything is going in the UK’s direction – the draw has been favourable, Jade has impressed in practice and Lord Lloyd Webber is putting his reputation on the line. The UK have put in a super-human effort this year in an attempt to win, and if we don’t win this year I don’t think we ever will,” said Hill’s spokesman Rupert Adams.

William Hill’s UK Eurovision Specials:

• 9/4 1st-6th
• 5/2 7th-12th
• 5/2 13th-18th
• 11/4 19th-24th
• Terry Wogan To Return To Eurovision In 2010: 4/1
• UK to come last: 16/1
• UK Nil Point: 50/1

William Hill Eurovision Song Contest:

• 11/8 Norway
• 6/1 Greece
• 7/1 Turkey
• 10/1 Bosnia-Herzegovina
• 12/1 UK
• 14/1 Iceland
• 16/1 Azerbaijan
• 25/1 France
• 25/1 Ukraine
• 33/1 Armenia
• 33/1 Bar

I can’t wait for the season to end. It’s embarrassing now. Lawro has left me all alone at the bottom of the Challenge Lawro table. If I don’t turn a profit this week I’ll be over a grand in the red. Time to give up methinks.

So here goes with the penultimate round (Thank God!) of matches. Please let me win some virtual money!

Have a go yourself and see if you can beat the BBC pundit. Leave your predictions in the comments below along with the best odds you can find. Good luck.

Man Utd v Arsenal

Can Arsenal hand Liverpool a lifeline and delay the crowning of the Champions? They’ll certainly be motivated to do so after their recent mauling in the Champions League at the hands of United. But Fergie’s side have proven time and again why they’re fit to be Champs and I think will nick this by a single goal.

Lawro’s Verdict: Man Utd

Lawro’s Result: 2-1

Selectabet’s Verdict: Man Utd

Selectabet’s Result: 1-0

Bolton v Hull City

At the mid-way point fo the season no-one would have expected Hull to be in the bottom 3 at this stage. Bolton have been hot and cold all season and I think Hull need the win more than the Trotters.

Lawro’s Verdict: Draw

Lawro’s Result: 1-1

Selectabet’s Verdict: Hull

Selectabet’s Result: 1-2

Everton v West Ham

Everton might have one eye on the Cup Final, but another way to look at it is that their players are playing for their Wembley places. Both sides are among the lowest scoring teams in the top half so this could be settled by a single goal.

Lawro’s Verdict: Everton

Lawro’s Result: 2-0

Selectabet’s Verdict: Everton

Selectabet’s Result: 1-0

Middlesbrough v Aston Villa

For Boro it’s simple, they have to win their last two games, and even then that might not be enough to keep them up. For Villa, the season is more or less over. Ordinarily I’d go with the hungrier team but I just refuse to back Southgate’s side to win. C’mon the Villa.

Lawro’s Verdict: Draw

Lawro’s Result: 1-1

Selectabet’s Verdict: Villa

Selectabet’s Result: 1-2

Newcastle v Fulham

The Toon got a massive boost from their win over Boro on Monday but will they be able to take the positives into this must-win game against Fulham. Fulham have lost just once in the last 4 visits to St. James’ Park so it won’t be easy.

Lawro’s Verdict: Newcastle

Lawro’s Result: 2-1 15/2 (Sportingbet)

Selectabet’s Verdict: Draw

Selectabet’s Result: 1-1 13/2 (Skybet)

Stoke v Wigan

Both teams safe. Nothing to play for. It’ll be like a pre-season friendly. Who cares.

Lawro’s Verdict: Stoke 5/4 (Blue Sq, Canbet, Paddy Power, Skybet)

Lawro’s Result: 2-1 9/1 (Centrebet)

Selectabet’s Verdict: Draw 12/5 (Betfred)

Selectabet’s Result: 3-3 80/1 (Centrebet)

Spurs v Man City

Both sides still harbour ambitions of claiming a Europa Cup slot so at least there’s still something at stake. City’s form has picked up of late. Unbelievably Spurs have won 7 of the last 9 games against City by 2 goals to 1 – the other two were 2-0 – so I’m going with that.

Lawro’s Verdict: Spurs 10/11 (Boylesports, Skybet, Stan James)

Lawro’s Result: 3-1 14/1 (Bet365)

Selectabet’s Verdict: Spurs 10/11 (Boylesports, Skybet, Stan James)

Selectabet’s Result: 2-1 15/2 (Blue Sq, Skybet)

West Brom v Liverpool

This game could be meaningless by the time kick-off comes around on Sunday. If not then I just can’t see Liverpool blowing their chance to take the title to the last game of the season. Even if it is they should be too good for the Baggies.

Lawro’s Verdict: Liverpool

Lawro’s Result: 0-2 6/1 (Ladbrokes, Paddy Power)

Selectabet’s Verdict: Liverpool

Selectabet’s Result: 0-3 9/1 (Skybet)

Chelsea v Blackburn

In theory, Chelsea could still finish 2nd but other than that this looks a run-of-the-mill match at the Bridge. Home win.

Lawro’s Verdict: Chelsea

Lawro’s Result: 2-0 11/2 (Blue Sq)

Selectabet’s Verdict: Chelsea

Selectabet’s Result: 4-1 25/1 (Skybet)

Portsmouth v Sunderland

Yawn. No, I mean Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaawn.

Lawro’s Verdict: Draw 9/4 (Betfred, Blue Sq, Boylesports)

Lawro’s Result: 1-1 6/1 (Canbet)

Selectabet’s Verdict: Pompey 6/5 (Coral, Expekt, Ladbrokes, VCBet)

Selectabet’s Result: 2-0 10/1 (BetInternet)

Good luck with your picks this weekend!

£20,000 Challenge? Pah! Don’t make me laugh, I’ll be happy to make it back up to £20 at this rate. LLLLLLL. 7 loses in a row. Count them. It makes for some ugly reading. I’m so embarrassed that I’ve not even updated my stats on the top right hand corner of the screen. So where do I go from here?

Well the UK season is all but over and £20k is merely a pipe dream but I wouldn’t mind finishing in some kind of profit. So I’m going to do something that I promised myself I’d never do. Something that proves, if there was ever any doubt, that I am a gambler, a punter, a fool. I’m topping up my balance so that I can get out of the whole I’m in. Don’t do this at home folks. Only the stupidist of punters just don’t know when to walk away. That’ll be me.

I’ve made a deal with myself that I ‘donate’ £100 to prop up the Challenge and get it back when the balance reaches £300. I am a mug.

But anyways, here’s today’s bet. No time for any explanation but it’s on overs in the Austrian 1st Division match between Vocklabruck and Gratkorn FC.

Selection: Vocklabruck v Gratkorn FC – Over 2.5 goals. £58.66 @ 1.55 with Expekt

West Brom v Liverpool: Live on Sky Sports 1 – Kick off Sunday 1.30pm

Betting preview courtesy of Betfair

West Bromwich Albion are at home to Liverpool in the televised Sunday lunchtime kick off, with the importance of the match likely to be determined by the previous day’s fixtures. Liverpool need Manchester United to have lost on Saturday to have any chance of still winning the title, while West Brom need Newcastle and Middlesbrough to both slip up at home.

Of all the teams in and around the relegation zone, it is West Brom that are currently in the best form, having picked up recent home wins against Sunderland and Wigan. From looking completely adrift at the bottom of the league, the Baggies now have a slim chance of survival.

To do so, they need to beat Liverpool, who are unbeaten in their last 9 Premier League games. Like Tony Mowbray, Rafa Benitez will also wonder what could have been achieved this season, had his side’s run of form begun earlier.

West Brom are [8.8], with the draw [5.1] and Liverpool [1.44]. The sides have met 7 times in the Premier League and Liverpool have won every time, with West Brom failing to score a single goal. In the half time/full time betting, Liverpool/Liverpool is [2.06], with the draw/Liverpool at [4.9].

All these markets and many more can be found at Betfair – the world’s biggest betting exchange. At Betfair you can bet against other fans and get 20% better odds. They offer every new customer that signs up through our site a £25 no loss bet. Join today and open a Betfair account to claim your bonus.