Everything points to a Chelsea victory in this year’s FA Cup final says Betfair´s ”Mystical” Mike Norman, though whether they win the easy way or the hard way is in the balance. Best Bet: Back Didier Drogba to score first at 4.5

Barring Leeds United’s exploits against a couple of the Premier League’s big boys, this season’s FA Cup has – not for the first time – been a dull affair in my eyes. Fans of Chelsea and Portsmouth will care little for what I think however, and they’ll head to Wembley on Saturday, one set full of confidence, the other set full of hope.

I highlighted each club’s ‘Road to Wembley’ earlier in the week, as well as drawing similarities between Pompey’s Dunkirk-like achievement in getting here and Wimbledon’s surprise success in 1988. But as this game nears kick-off a huge sense of reality has descended over me, and if I’m being completely honest with myself, then this game is surely at the mercy of Carlo Ancelotti’s Premier League champions.

In the ‘90 minutes’ Match Odds market Chelsea are available to back at 1.2, Portsmouth are huge underdogs at 17.0, whilst The Draw can be backed at 8.8.

In the lead-up to Portsmouth’s semi-final against Tottenham I wrote about how laying Spurs was the percentage call, simply because Harry Redknapp’s men had a habit of failing to beat teams in the bottom half of the Premier League – Hull, Wolves and Sunderland are just three teams that spring to mind. Unfortunately for Pompey fans, Chelsea didn’t suffer from the same problem as the league season came to a conclusion; in fact, the Blues were quite brilliant in winning seven of their last eight, scoring a remarkable 33 goals in the process.

Already relegated Portsmouth weren’t quite so prolific in their last eight league games however. Avram Grant’s men managed just one victory, scored just six goals, and rather discouragingly, lost 5-0 at home to cup final opponents Chelsea.

It’s going to take a monumental effort for Portsmouth to overturn the formbook and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if deep down at heart, a few of the Pompey players are praying not to get another hiding, especially given Chelsea’s savaging demolitions of Aston Villa and Wigan recently. They won’t be saying it out loud, but surely it’s just human nature to think like that.

Apart from long term absentees Michael Essien and Jose Bosingwa, Ancelotti is expected to have a close to full-strength squad to choose from – which includes John Terry - though John Obi Mikel is absent after undergoing minor surgery on a knee injury. Portsmouth’s task hasn’t been made any easier by having a bulging injury list. Jamie O’Hara - Pompey’s player of the year – is a major doubt because of the double stress fracture in his back, whilst there are also doubts over Aruna Dindane (groin) and Kevin-Prince Boateng (ankle).

Chelsea will win this game and clinch their first ever league and cup double, that I have no doubt, but the manner in which they achieve the win is a little more difficult to predict. Will they come out all guns blazing and score an early goal? If you think they will then Chelsea/Chelsea – available to back at 1.64 – will definitely appeal to many in the Half Time/Full Time market. I’m going to go slightly against the grain however and hope that Pompey hold out until half time; so it’s Draw/Chelsea (5.2) for me.

In the Correct Score market Any Unquoted (any team to score at least four) is the favourite at 3.5, but I prefer the 3-0 (to Chelsea) option today at 7.8. The Wembley pitch is a huge, energy-sapping one (not least because of the terrible state it is in), and if Chelsea do go a few goals up I don’t think they’ll bust a gut to get a cricket score.

There is a Correct Score 2 market for this game if you do think Chelsea will score at least four but want to be more specific – 4-0 is available to back at 7.8 for example, with 5-0 and 6-0 being available at 19.0 and 36.0 respectively. Over 2.5 Goals will obviously appeal to you guys then, that option is available to back at just 1.62 today.

And finally it has to be Didier Drogba in the First Goalscorer market. Since the turn of the year, the Chelsea striker has scored 15 league goals in just 14 games as well as having a fine goalscoring record at Wembley – he has scored five times at the home of English football. He will be available to back at around 4.5 once the First Goalscorer market materialises and should give us an excellent run for our money.

Best Bet:

• Back Didier Drogba @ 4.5 in First Goalscorer market
• Back Draw/Chelsea @ 5.2 in Half Time/Full Time market;
• Back 3-0 to Chelsea @ 7.8 in Correct Score market;
• Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.62

Live on ITV. Kick off 5pm

The Stamford Bridge massacre is still fresh in the memory, but Betfair’s Jaymes Monte believes that that might just galvanise the Aston Villa players ahead of their FA Cup semi-final tie…

Dubious offside decision or not, Chelsea deserved their win over Manchester United last week and deserve their position at the top of the Premier League table. The victory reaffirmed the form that they had shown in the previous 10 days when beating Portsmouth 5-0 then thrashing Aston Villa 7-1, and English football’s two most prestigious prizes are now firmly within their grasp.

The FA Cup has had its knockers over the last couple of years but Chelsea have shown the competition great respect this season – not once have they made wholesale changes to their starting 11 – and now they are reaping the rewards with a semi-final visit to Wembley.

This, of course, will be Villa’s second trip to the national stadium this season after they lost to Manchester United in the Carling Cup final earlier this year. However, the injustice that they feel from that game along with the very recent drubbing at the hands of opponents Chelsea could serve as massive motivators ahead of this semi-final tie.

Villa have already bounced back amicably from that defeat by keeping a clean sheet when registering a 1-0 away victory over Bolton last Saturday. And there is also the danger that the Chelsea players will still be thinking about the simplicity of that victory at Stamford Bridge, no matter how much the manager and coaching staff try to drill it out of them. That is why I think that the odds of 1.6 on a Chelsea win are too short.

If we forgive Villa for that 7-1 defeat and put it down as an anomaly then their record against the top clubs in the league makes for impressive reading. They have beaten Man United at Old Trafford, beaten Chelsea at Villa Park, defeated Liverpool at Anfield and are unbeaten against both Spurs and Manchester City this season.

One major factor in the outcome of this fixture could be the fitness of Richard Dunne; the defender was forced to withdraw from training on Thursday with an Achilles problem and could miss the game as a result. The good news for Villa is that James Milner will be available again after he was left out of the side that beat Bolton at the weekend. Didier Drogba is also in contention for a recall to the Chelsea side although Carlo Ancelotti may be tempted to stick with the system which served him so well at Old Trafford last week.

Goals don’t seem to be a problem for Chelsea right now, 14 in three games says everything that you need to know on that front. So no surprise to see an odds on price of 1.9 available on there being more than two goals in this fixture, yet I feel that Martin O’Neill’s first priority in addressing their shortcomings of two weeks ago will be to tighten up at the back – a back to basics attitude if you like. So under 2.5 goals at 2.1 is the play on the goals markets for me.

Finally, remember that this tie must be decided on the day so we could be in for both extra time and penalties if the sides can’t be separated. Common opinion suggests that the Villa players are tiring and if it goes past the 90 minutes mark then the odds will be heavily in Chelsea’s favour. Yet, as O’Neill highlighted, ProZone stats suggest that his side are one of the fittest in the top flight. So if we do get an extra 30 minutes of play it may pay not to jump onto the Chelsea bandwagon quite so hurriedly.

All the recent form lines and performances point towards a Chelsea win, but I think that there could be a sharp sting in the Villa tail and the value bets are to side with The Villans.

When these two met in the original fixture a boring 0-0 draw was played out with few chances and not much action of note. With Fulham juggling their small squad in three competitions and Spurs missing key players, there may be more of the same says Betfair’s Tareq Quiroz.

FA Cup semi-final weekend is one of the jewels in the fixture list crown. I’m not the biggest fan of having them at Wembley but hey, at least more supporters get to see these great events. The line-up is almost complete with just Portsmouth awaiting the winners of the replay between Spurs and Fulham.

The first encounter between these two London outfits was instantly forgettable. At a busy time of the season Fulham in particular will be a bit annoyed they didn’t go for it a bit more in the first tie. Both teams could do with a rest but the prize here is just too big to give up on. I expect full teams out for both and hopefully a slightly more entertaining game.

For Tottenham, injuries to key players such as Jermain Defoe, Aaron Lennon, Ledley King and Jermaine Jenas have hampered their end of season campaign. So far it hasn’t really affected their results but you get the feeling there may be a cracking point anytime soon. With a further injury to Roman Pavlyuchenko meaning he will miss this game, Spurs are down to their bare bones up front. Against a tight defence like Fulham’s, this might just be the key to how this game will pan out.

Following last week’s amazing victory over Juventus it was a tough task for Fulham to raise their game at the weekend. With little to play for in the league you can be sure that Roy Hodgson will have his team fully charged for this match. It was noticeable that Bobby Zamora, Zolten Gera and Clint Dempsey were all used for relatively small parts of the match on Sunday. Hodgson wanted them fresh for this and I expect them to come out firing into this injury-ravaged Spurs outfit.

I am tempted by the 6.4 available on Fulham in the Match Odds but I feel the more sensible bet would be a lay of Spurs at odds of 1.64. If, as expected, Fulham rock Brede Hangeland is back I think Harry Redknapp’s troops will find it too tight a defence to breach with the players he has at his disposal. You never know, this might just be Fulham’s year.

I can’t get that first encounter out of my head and with so much resting on the outcome I don’t expect this game to be much more open that the first. With that in mind I feel that we might struggle for goals. I think there is some value in the Over/Under 1.5 Goals market but once again I am erring on the side of caution. The Under 2.5 Goals option in the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market is trading at around 2.04 and that is definitely my main punt for this match.

If you are looking for something a little different then the Asian Handicap market is possible the answer. The middle line has some possibilities but I am most tempted by the top line. Fulham +1 is the line and that essentially means if you back Fulham+1, then if Fulham win or the match is a draw then you win. If Tottenham win by one goal then you get your stake back so no loss. The only way you lose is if Tottenham win by 2 goals or more. So, at odds of around 1.76 a back of Fulham in this market looks a good bet to me.

With a trip to Wembley so close I expect a nervous night for both sets of supporters and, speaking totally with my wallet, with any luck we’ll have another 0-0 draw!

Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.04

There’s nowhere Betfair’s Richard Walker would rather be on Sunday lunch-time than the Madejski Stadium. But is he backing Martin O’Neill’s men to make it to Wembley again or can Reading’s run continue?

The tie of the round for me, I’d take getting involved in this one over the procession that’s likely to be Chelsea v Stoke later on this FA Cup Sunday afternoon.

Reading are the only non-Premier League side left in the competition. Ladies and gentleman, we are already past the stage where the top-flight sides pretend they don’t care too much about the cups. They all want to win this now.

While I can’t see the Royals – led by the amiable Brian McDermott – winning cup, I can see them at least landing a blow against a Villa side who have the quality to make this something of a no-contest.

I expect Martin O’Neill’s expansive, attack to exploit the wide open spaces of the Madejski Stadium. He has only centre-half pairing James Collins and Richard Dunne as injury doubts.

Collins and Dunne aren’t crucial to Villa’s counter-attacking approach but they are key to my chief selection – that an Aston Villa clean sheet should be backed. I expect a more cagey approach from Reading; a rigid formation to match Villa’s and a less carefree approach than Crystal Palace adopted in the last round. Also factor in the absence of Reading winger Jobi McAnuff, who caused Liverpool problems.

I fancy this tie won’t be brimming with goals and, at 2.66 to back, am suggesting Brad Friedel won’t be picking the ball out of his net at all. Yet far from suggesting a mauling, I’m simply stating that O’Neill’s men will have too much for what – let’s get it right – are average Championship fodder, in form as they are.

There are only four sides in their division with a worse defensive record than Reading. Their cup heroics can’t hide that fact and it’s one I expect Villa to exploit. I’m a little torn as regards the key goals market. Under 2.5 is priced around 1.93 with Overs at 2.02. This might be a section to get involved with in-play, after assessing the approach of both sides in the early minutes. I certainly don’t expect a feast of goals so lay Over 3.5 goals to a 3.9 liability. An early Villa strike would open things up, but they’re hardly going to then chase.

Quicksilver striker Gabriel Agbonhalor must have a part to play. His electric pace is going to be too much for the Reading back-line. For me, he’s a must include at 2.32 to score. At 5.7 for the first goal, you could do a lot worse.

If you were thinking of including a home team player, then Simon Church is probably your man, but I’d want to see at least 3.75 to score before getting involved. Shane Long 3.25, who’s back from suspension, and the lanky Pole Grzegorz Rasiak 3.3 are other options, although top scorer in the cup for Reading is Icelandic all-action midfielder Gylfi Sigurdsson. If there was to me a shock opening, his 13.0 to notch first represents good value since he has a genuine eye for goal.

The match odds, in my eyes, offer a chance for heavy stakers to wade into backing Villa at 1.89. Let’s not get carried away by cup fever here; the Villains are sixth in the Premier League having lost five all season, while Reading are 18th in the Championship with 14 defeats to their name. You might want to request nearer evens – someone in Betfairland might just be prepared to lay that.

Reading are a 4.7 shot while The Draw is 3.6. The odds for both suggest they’re unlikely scenarios. I agree. McDermott’s boys have had a great run – I fancy, though, still smarting from their Carling Cup defeat, Aston Villa will make no mistake at The Madejski.

Best Bets:

• Back Villa clean sheet @ 2.66;
• Lay Over 3.5 goals @ 3.9;
• Back Agbonlahor to score @ 2.32.

Stoke City have so far sent two Premier League giants packing in this season’s FA Cup and Betfair’s Dan ‘The Betting Man’ Fitch thinks they will give Chelsea a tough game in the quarter-finals. Best Bet: Back both teams to score @ 2.06.

When the draw was made for the FA Cup quarter-finals the tie that immediately stood out was the prospect of Chelsea playing at home to Manchester City; AKA Terry v Bridge 2.

The only people that weren’t excited at this prospect were the good folk at Stoke City and as Manchester City needed to first circumnavigate a tricky away replay at the Britannia Stadium before reaching the quarter stage, this was a major stumbling block in regards to the plum tie of the round coming to fruition.

Not many teams come away from playing Stoke with a win and having now eliminated Arsenal and Manchester City, the Potters face their trickiest challenge yet, as they travel to high-flying Chelsea.

Some would say Chelsea are overdue a win having lost in successive games against Manchester City and Inter Milan, but Stoke have reason to fancy their chances. With Petr Cech injured, Henrique Hilario was a liability against Manchester City. Carlo Ancelotti could turn to Ross Turnbull, but it’s fair to say that he didn’t inspire much confidence between the sticks during Middlesbrough’s relegation last season. Whoever Ancelotti chooses, Stoke will put them under as much pressure as possible from set pieces and throw ins.

Chelsea’s defence as a whole is looking pretty shaky. Since news broke of the John Terry affair, they have kept only two clean sheets in eight games and with Ashley Cole and Yuri Zhrikov injured, have been forced to play Florent Malouda as an emergency left back.

With Jose Boswinga ruled out for the rest of the season and Juliano Belletti suspended along with Michael Ballack, Chelsea lack options in defence. This may be further complicated by Ricardo Carvalho’s late fitness test.

I think that Stoke can score on Sunday and you can get odds of 1.96 for Chelsea to be unable to keep a clean sheet and 2.06 for both teams to score.

Since Stoke were promoted to the Premier League they have played Chelsea three times and on two occasions they have found the net in a 2-1 defeat. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 1.7, with unders at 2.38.

In the goalscorer markets, Didier Drogba is the favourite to score first at 4.1 and is 1.81 to score at anytime, with Nicolas Anelka at 5.0 and 1.86 and Frank Lampard at 6.2 and 2.4. For Stoke, their FA Cup hero Ricardo Fuller leads the betting at 11.5 and 4.5.

Stoke will have to handle Chelsea’s dangerous attackers without Ryan Shawcross, who begins his suspension following his sending off against Arsenal. Danny Higginbotham and Matthew Etherington will both have to undergo fitness tests.

Chelsea are the 1.3 favourites, with the draw at 6.4 and Stoke at 11.5. I think that price is much too short. Whilst I can’t see Stoke winning, I wouldn’t rule out a draw and recommend a lay of Chelsea at 1.18 in the To Qualify market.

If you think Chelsea will win, then they can be backed to be winning at half time/full time at 1.85, with the draw/Chelsea at 4.9. A 2-0 Chelsea win is 6.8, with 2-1 at 10.5 and 1-1 at 13.5. In the Asian Handicap market, Chelsea -1.5 can be backed at 1.88, while Stoke + 1.5 are 2.02.

This is a tough one to predict and as such I’m going to recommend backing a 2-1 Chelsea victory, while laying them to qualify, as a saver.

Recommended Bets:

• Back both teams to score @ 2.06;
• Back Chelsea 2-0 @ 6.8;
• Lay Chelsea to qualify @ 1.18.

Live on ITV. Kick off 5.20

Betfair’s Jaymes Monte analyses an FA Cup game which he hopes will be an entirely different spectacle from that which he witnessed last Sunday…

I had the displeasure of paying to attend the Sunderland versus Fulham game last week and let me tell you that reports of it being one of the worst games of the season are not exaggerated. The best way of describing the game is to say that it was a team that didn’t want to win playing against a team who didn’t know how to win. However, we shouldn’t denigrate or criticise Fulham, after all this is the cornerstone from which they have built their success under Roy Hodgson – win your home games and anything that you can pick up on your travels is a bonus.

Unfortunately, there is little that can be taken from that game which can be applied to this one. Fulham’s defence coped amicably with the strains of having played in Ukraine less than 72 hours earlier, but they were never fully stretched by a lacklustre Sunderland attack. They lacked any potency or intent going forward but that was more a case of not wanting to stretch the game and expose their defence too much. In short; Fulham dictated the pace and style of the game at the Stadium of Light, but this week’s FA Cup tie against Tottenham is an entirely different proposition.

The first question to ask is whether Hodgson would welcome another game for his stretched squad in an already hectic season. The answer to that will undoubtedly be yes if that game is an FA Cup semi-final, but if it is a quarter-final replay then he would maybe think twice. On the other hand, if Fulham have aspirations of playing Europa League football again next season then it would have to be suggested that the FA Cup is their only realistic route. Ironically, Tottenham have the squad to cope with a European campaign and whilst securing fourth place in the Premier League will be their primary target they have the resources to do both that and continue on their FA Cup glory trail.

With Fulham suffering just three home defeats all season – Arsenal, Aston Villa and Chelsea – it is difficult to justify Spurs being such clear favourites at 2.5. Yet that display against Sunderland is still too fresh in the memory to suggest backing Fulham at 3.2, what if it wasn’t a resolute away performance? What if they really are on running on empty? And if the replay is such an undesirable consequence for the Premier League manager these days, should we really be backing the draw at 3.4? One of them has to come in, but I’ll be damned if I know where the value is here.

Perhaps goals are the way forward. Spurs have strikers who are in form in Roman Pavlyuchenko – five goals in just 192 minutes of football – and Peter Crouch – two goals and a man of the match performance for England in midweek – yet one of them could miss out at the expense of Jermain Defoe – 22 goals in all competitions this season – if he is declared fit. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.2 and looks like it could be the better value, especially for in-running traders, but you may want a saver on Tottenham to keep a clean sheet at 3.3 because I feel Fulham will need to score for this one to come in.

Harry Redknapp will be hoping that he finds himself in Hodgson’s predicament come this time next season and they will certainly be better equipped to cope with it. But for now all the plaudits must go to The Cottagers and their success in keeping a Premier League, FA Cup and Europa League campaign on track simultaneously. They are 14.5 to win the FA Cup and 22.0 to win the Europa League but either or both would surely be a step too far.

Chelsea v Manchester City or Stoke City

Fulham v Bolton Wanderers or Tottenham Hotspur

Reading or West Brom v Crystal Palace or Aston Villa

Portsmouth v Birmingham City

Ties will be played on 6th – 7th March.

Live on ITV. Kick off 1.30pm

Not many fixtures can boast an 87-year run without a goalless draw, an average of three goals a game scored over 20 matches, or six goals per game in recent cup encounters. Bolton v Tottenham can.  Betfair’s “Mystical” Mike Norman explains.

I’m not surprised this game has been chosen for live TV coverage. I really fancy it to be a cracking encounter between two sides desperate to win the game at the first attempt. What’s more, history – and by that I mean results – between these two down the years suggest we could be in for an absolute goal-fest on Sunday afternoon.

In the Match Odds market Bolton are available to back at 4.0, Spurs can be backed at 2.14, whilst the Draw is on offer at 3.5.

Bolton go into this game on the back of just one win in their last eight league fixtures, but that doesn’t really tell the whole story. They were 2-0 up and playing some good stuff against Arsenal recently before succumbing to a 4-2 defeat. And just last Saturday they battered Fulham at the Reebok Stadium but couldn’t find that all-important goal, and in midweek against Man City they played some decent football and should have been awarded at least one, if not two, penalties.

So the luck hasn’t really been on Owen Coyle’s side since he took charge of the Trotters, but if he approaches this game in the same vein as he did against City then I’d have to fancy the home side to get the win.

Spurs themselves aren’t exactly setting the world alight, securing just one league victory from their last six games, with the midweek loss to Wolves being particularly disappointing. As much as I respect Harry Redknapp, I’m astounded that he allowed Robbie Keane to go out on loan on transfer deadline day, bringing in Eidur Gudjohnsen in his place. I’m not knocking Gudjohnsen, but Keane is arguably a better player and was already match-fit – I just don’t see any logic in Redknapp’s decision.

I don’t see Coyle or Redknapp messing around with team selection and expect both managers to field a strong a side as possible. Jack Wilshere is cup-tied for Bolton however, whilst the home side will be without the injured trio of Gary Cahill, Ivan Klasnic and Sean Davis. Spurs are sweating on the fitness of both Ledley King and Michael Dawson, and the excellent Luka Modric could also miss out due to illness.

From a betting perspective I fancy Bolton – who haven’t lost at home to Spurs in 10 league games – at 4.0 to win the game, but my main bet for the match is going to be Over 3.5 Goals – available to back at 3.7. Incredibly, an amazing 24 goals have been scored between these two clubs during the last four times they’ve played each other in cup competitions – that’s an average of SIX goals per game.

If you’re of the opinion that Over 3.5 Goals is a bit of a risk, then consider the stat that tells us that the last 20 times Bolton have played Spurs (all competitions) a total of 63 goals were scored, suggesting Over 2.5 Goals at 2.06 is a decent bet today.

In the Correct Score market, the option you should be dismissing instantly is the 0-0 12.0 one. The last time Botlon and Spurs played out a goalless draw was September 22nd 1923 – 76 games ago! My own idea of making a profit in this market is to cover the 3-1 (48.0), 3-2 (40.0) and 2-2 (20.0) options to small stakes. Also to small stakes, I don’t think there’s anything wrong with backing Bolton/Tottenham (30.0) and Tottenham/Bolton (40.0) in the Half Time/Full Time market. This approach is a particular favourite of mine when I envisage an open game with plenty of goals.

If you’re looking for a player to score today then you could do much worse than Bolton’s Kevin Davies. He has an excellent record against the Lillywhites, including three goals in his last two games against them, and is available to back at 8.4 in the First Goalscorer market and at 3.2 in the To Score market.

• Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.7
• Also: Back Bolton @ 4.0 to beat Tottenham; Back Kevin Davies @ 8.4 to be First Goalscorer and @ 3.2 To Score

Live On ITV. Kick off 3.45pm

This is an intriguing tie in many respects, says Betfair’s Richard Walker. Will Martin O’Neill field a side a little stronger than the mix and match ones of previous rounds? Is it fate that beleaguered Crystal Palace will grace Wembley during one of their darkest times?

Don’t be fooled, of course, by the Eagles’ lowly league position. Add those 10 administration-docked points back on and you’ll see they’d be on the fringes of the play-off places.

And far from confidence having taken a dent recently, rent-a-quote boss Neil Warnock has actually created a galvanising effect between players and fans on the back of a bleak situation.

This is why I’m stopping short of taking the easy route and suggesting that Villa should have few problems breezing past lower-division opposition.

True to say, you have to go back to December to find the last defeat for Martin O’Neill’s side – and that to Liverpool. Since then, nine unbeaten – taking in the Carling Cup semi-finals and two FA Cup wins, granted – sees them coming into this tie brimming with confidence.

I still can’t get excited, though, about the 1.85 odds to back a Villa success. Palace are 5.1 at home and The Draw 3.6. If I was forced to play the match odds, I’d actually lay Villa, knowing it wouldn’t cost me a king’s ransom to be proved wrong.

Despite the likely absence of Gabby Agbonlahor, Villa’s top scorer, I think there’ll be goals in this one. O’Neill’s policy of playing some senior and some fringe players means they’re not quite the cohesive defensive unit you oft see in Premier League competition. This was proved in the previous two rounds: 3-1 over Blackburn then 3-2 against Brighton (both at home, too). So my best bet is to get stuck into backing Over 2.5 goals at 2.2.

Warnock will know only too well that inferior opposition usually only get one shot at causing an upset. All is in Palace’s favour here; they’re at home, Villa’s players are starting to think about the February 28 Carling Cup Final and O’Neill never plays his strongest line-up in cup matches. Brad Guzan will likely start in goal for Villa – if you’ve seen him play, you’ll know that it only adds further ammunition to my argument.

Unders is priced at 1.81 while, if you’re feeling a little braver, might Over 3.5 goals 3.9 come into your reckoning?

Who’s going to get the goals is slightly trickier. With Agbonlahor likely missing and Emile Heskey not fully tuned up after injury, it might make John Carew 6.4 and Ashley Young 8.8 your best first goalscorer options if you fancy the visitors to land the first blow.

My eye is caught by not only the 10.0 about Palace’s 15-goal top scorer Darren Ambrose being first to notch, but the 4.0 about him scoring at any time. And rather than opt for the obvious visiting threats, I’m going to play Stewart Downing – at around 15.0 – as a first goalscorer cover.

So, for me, it’ll be a thriller with goals aplenty. That means I’m looking high in the correct score list. The 60.0 for 3-2 Palace will be in my portfolio, so too more conservative choices such as 2-2 20.0 and 2-1 19.0. The market leader is 1-0 to Villa at 7.0 and I’m happy to lay anyone who thinks it’ll end up that way.

If a Villa win is your thing, what about 2-1 to the visitors 8.6, with perhaps the 21.0 on 3-1 as your cover?

I have nothing against them personally, but one of the big positives of Manchester United being ousted from the FA Cup is that ITV have to actually think about what tie they’re going to show at their prime-time slot. I reckon they’ve got it just about right with this one. Can you combine enjoyable watching with profitable staking? Good luck!

Best Bets:

• Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.2;
• Lay Villa 1-0 correct score @ 7.6;
• Back Ambrose to score @ 4.0.

Live on ITV. Kick off 5.15pm

With the FA Cup favourites tumbling out of the competition, Stoke will be looking to cause more problems for the Premier League big boys, when they travel to Manchester City. Betfair’s Dan ‘The Betting Man’ Fitch thinks City will be too strong.

With three of the ‘Big Four’ already out of the FA Cup, Manchester City have a better than expected chance of winning their first trophy in 34 years, but Stoke City will be looking to make sure that this barren run continues for at least another season.

Having dumped Arsenal out of the fourth round, Stoke have a chance to eliminate another Premier League giant, though this promises to be a much tougher challenge.

Roberto Mancini will know that a trophy will cement his reputation somewhat at a club with fickle employers and can therefore be guaranteed to field a much stronger team than Arsene Wenger sent out against Stoke.

Manchester City also have the home advantage. They are unbeaten at the City of Manchester Stadium this season, while Stoke have only won twice away from home all season and one of those victories came care of an extra time goal against Leyton Orient in the Carling Cup.

With the two sides set to meet at the Britannia Stadium in the league next week, Manchester City will be keen to avoid a third meeting and will be going all out for the win.

Having scored just 5 league goals on the road, it seems that Stoke’s best chance would be to play very defensively and try to get City back to their place for a replay.

With that in mind, I think that the odds on Manchester City keeping a clean sheet at 2.18 provides good value, as does the 2.02 for under 2.5 goals, with overs at 1.94.

When the goalscorer markets open on Betfair closer to kick off, expect the in-form Carlos Tevez to lead the betting at around 5.0 to score first and 2.1 to net at anytime, with Adebayor at 5.5 and 2.25, and Bellamy at 7.0 and 2.9.

For Stoke, their hero from the last round, Ricardo Fuller will be priced at around 11.0 and 4.5, with Tuncay at 12.0 and 5.0.

When Manchester City played host to Stoke on Boxing Day, they ran out as comfortable 2-0 winners, whilst last season both league games were won by the respective home side.

Mancini will be without the injured Toure, with Bellamy and Richards both doubtful. The only injury worry for Stoke is Amady Faye.

Manchester City are the 1.54 favourites, with the draw at 4.3 and a Stoke win at 8.0. In their 2-0 win against Stoke earlier this season, City had scored both goals by half time and a repeat in the half time/full time market can be backed at 2.3, with the draw/City at 4.8.

I think that City will win narrowly, with 1-0 at 7.6, 2-0 at 7.8 and 2-1 at 10.0. If you think that that Stoke can put a spanner in the works, then 0-0 is 14.5, with 1-1 at 8.8 and 0-1 at 20.0.

With City pretty short in the match odds, I’d recommend betting on them at -1.0 in the Asian Handicap market. If City win by 2 goals or more you will win at odds of 1.9, with a single goal win seeing your stake being returned.

If either side progresses on Saturday, then their price to win the competition is likely to dip again ahead of the draw on Sunday. City are currently the second favourites to win the cup at 6.0, with Stoke at 48.0.

• Best Bet: Manchester City clean sheet @ 2.18.
• Recommended Bets: Back Manchester City – 1.0 in the Asian Handicap @ 1.9; Back under 2.5 goals @ 2.02.