This is a big fight in the career of Amir Khan, but while he’s fancied to get the better of Pauli Malignaggi it may not be as easy as the layers suspect

As Amir Khan begins his American adventure this weekend, British fight fans will think wistfully of another talented Asian fighter who crossed the Atlantic to make his name.

It is nearly 13 years since Naseem Hamed lit up Madison Square Garden in a four round barnburner against New Yorker Kevin Kelley. Six knockdowns later, Hamed had retained his title and won over the fans. How Khan would love to emulate his boyhood hero with a swashbuckling display, though perhaps without every inch of the drama.

Although he’s not fighting in the Garden’s big room, Khan is making his debut on HBO television and like Hamed, he’s facing a slick, fast-talking local boy. Luckily, Pauli Malignaggi’s fists and feet move almost as fast as his mouth which is just as well because Khan is one of the quickest boxers around and unusually, he comes into this fight as the puncher. Hence the deck is stacked in Khan’s favour and the betting reflects that with the Brit a strong 1.19 favourite and Malignaggi a 6.0 underdog.

With a low voltage KO record of just five in 27 wins, Malignaggi is 8.0 for the stoppage which seems unlikely whatever your take on Khan’s ‘chin.’ His only real hope of an upset rests in his ability to outbox our out-think Khan and there was a glimmer of hope in his back-to-form win last time against Juan Diaz. Malignaggi looked sharp and more like his old self that night, he says because of a move to new trainer Sherif Younan and a return to his old style.

Whatever, the truth is that form probably isn’t good enough anyway. Diaz is a likeable but limited come-forward fighter who is essentially a lightweight and was sparked by Juan Manuel Marquez two fights back. Khan would be long odds on to beat him and fancied to stop him.
So this fight revolves around Khan and how he might get the job done. I have no doubt that the Bolton boy is becoming a man, physically, that he is both stronger and punching harder under the guidance of Freddie Roach as well as the conditioning of Alex Ariza.

But his record of five KOs in his last six wins might be slightly deceptive. Kristjansen, Gomez and Fagan were domestic level, Barrera got cut and Salita was completely out of his depth. So Khan’s points win over Kotelnik in between is probably the barometer given he is a seasoned, though not brilliant, former World Champion – exactly like Malignaggi.

Khan is 2.56 for the KO/TKO/DQ and Roach – so often on the mark with his predictions – reckons his man will get it done at that price and by that method. I can see a point whereby Amir can make the pressure tell and Malignaggi will be forced to dig deep. But it’s worth remembering the Malignaggi who took an absolute thumping from a peak Miguel Cotto four years ago and who fought through that pain and with a broken jaw to hear the final bell. No way can Khan make Malignaggi hurt like Cotto could.

Some fans will point to the New Yorker’s limp display against Ricky Hatton a year-and-a-half back when he was muscled out of it by the Hitman before retiring by his corner in the 11th. As subdued as he was there (whether it was a bad night or just a case of levels), the truth is Malignaggi wasn’t being done over and I thought Buddy McGirt’s retirement while sympathetic, was a little unfair. No surprise they parted company. Those two defeats underline Malignaggi loses to the good ones and Khan is approaching that zone.

The Brit needs a victory here, on American TV, as a platform for the next stage of his career. Juan Manuel Marquez had been talked of as an opponent but Malignaggi is still a name over there and so a key to so many attractively painted doors. Khan will want to sparkle and the stage is definitely set for a spectacular arrival. He can match Maliggnagi for speed, beat him for power and not worry as much as usual about what might come back at him; if ever the planets were aligned for a Khan Knockout, they are this weekend. Thirteen years on from his hero’s sizzling performance in New York, Amir Khan walks in Naseem Hamed’s shadow. Somehow I think Malignaggi might prove stubborn to the memories.

• Verdict: Khan to win on points @ 2.4, 6PTS (SCALE 1-10)

Ruiz may not be a household name but he’s actually fought in 11 world title fights and is a two-time world champion. In his long career he’s come up against the likes of Rahman, Golota, Jones (Roy) and Holyfield, against whom he’s won, drawn and lost in a trilogy of fights. He’s not an easy man to stop either, in fact you need to go back to 1996 for the last time he was beaten inside the distance. It all makes the 2/11 (Expekt) odds on a Haye win seem a little too short.

Sure Haye cuts an impressive figure and has the speed and ability to take care of Ruiz but it won’t be the walk in the park that 2/11 suggests. If Haye’s last win, over Nickolay Valuev, is anything to go by this could be a bit of a bore and Haye may well end up grinding out the win. 21 of 23 of Haye’s bouts have been won early but 1/2 (Betfair) doens’t make any appeal against the durable Ruiz.

Paddy Power go 5/2 (Skybet) on the Hayemaker winning on points and that makes most sense tonight. Haye’s slight of hand and power-punching should see him rack up the points but Ruiz’s track record suggests he knows how to take a punch. If the 38-year-old doesn’t last all 12 rounds then a Haye KO between rounds 10 ans 12 looks a good saver at 5/1 with Skybet.

• Best bet: Haye to win on points 5/2 (Skybet)

Valuev is almost a whole foot and six stones heavier than Haye but the Brit posesses the nous and the speed to floor the giant Russian.

It’s one of the most awaited boxing matches in a long time: brain against brawn, David against Goliath, Britain against Russia. Betfair’s Alex Steedman knows who the better boxer is but that’s not to say this fight is a foregone conclusion.

He’s got a big punch, a big mouth and on Saturday night David Haye will square up to a very big man. But to beat the giant Russian WBA Heavyweight Champion Nicolay Valuev, Haye might have to call upon something he has largely been short on; Patience.

As talented a boxer as he is, the truth is that throughout his career, David Haye has always been able to summon the heavy artillery when required to settle arguments. All but one of his 22 opponents has fallen by ‘Hayemaker.’ But it’s not a given that a 7 foot, 22 stones behemoth will tumble when the bombs are flying. Haye is as yet a freshman among the big boys and curiously, a Lilliputian next to the Eastern European Giants. Brain over brawn might be the way forward in this brave new world.

Let’s say straight off the bat that in terms of ability, Haye is a 1/10 (1.1 Betfair) shot here. But how do you solve a very big problem like Nicolay Valuev? The Russian will stand nearly a foot above Haye and will outweigh the Englishman by around 100lbs or 6 stones; as if he’s fighting with a particularly acid- tongued supermodel on his shoulders. His size is his strength; awkward to get at, overbearing when on the attack and he combines that with more competent technique than he is given credit for.

Valuev has been good enough to expose fringe contenders like Monte Barrett and Owen Beck but is limited by his narrow margin struggles over effective spoiler John Ruiz and last time out against a very much past-it Evander Holyfield. Floyd Mayweather he is not, but difficult to beat he is. Only Ruslan Chagaev has bettered Valuev in a career that has taken in 51 bouts in 10 different countries. And the key to Chagaev’s success was a disciplined, thoughtful, hit and move policy that left the decision beyond doubt. Question is, does David Haye have the required patience and will he need it?

In terms of discipline and strategy, Haye – alongside mentor/manager Adam Booth – has it in him. His performance in the pit of Levallois to snatch two world titles from the formidable Jean Marc Mormeck was almost perfect. The between round communications between Haye and Booth were revealing, close to being surgically detached: Punch out-put. Check. Fight tempo. Check. Pick it up. Check. Knockout. Check.

But Haye’s visit to the canvas in the 4th round meant the much discussed issues of chin and stamina, key issues in this fight, surfaced once again. My own feeling is that long term travails with weight compounded by a bingo blow to the top of the head explain that knockdown. Haye never really looked in trouble.

But it amazes me that he is still largely defined by his sole defeat to Carl Thompson 5 years ago. Get out the DVD or click up Youtube, it’s a great watch but note the number of punches the exuberant young Haye throws. It is like watching a ferocious Bantamweight scrap – no wonder he ran out of steam on what was only his 11th pro outing and his first attempt at 12 rounds. Get over it people. Haye throws a fraction of the punches now but with considerably more accuracy and power.

I’m not sure either that Valuev has the necessary athleticism to test Haye’s stamina anyway. Yes, he cuts off portions of the ring but it isn’t exactly educated pressure and I have the feeling that the ‘Hayemaker’ will feel as though he’s part of the matrix; slow punches breezing past his not-there- anymore jaw. The problem for Haye is getting inside that 7″ reach advantage to hit what is a far from elusive target and being disciplined when those opportunities arise. Essentially, Haye has to stop being himself for large portions of this fight: reckless and destructive might not work; clinical and powerful ought to be enough.

And yet the statement possibility of toppling the supposedly unstoppable and upstaging the ultra cautious division No1 Wladimir Klitschko, must surely be somewhere in Haye’s mind. It is a thought so close to instinct for Haye that it goes against everything within him to resist. To Knockout Valuev would be something and there will be opportunities but Haye could easily win this fight just boxing. I actually think it could be embarrassing. Valuev’s only hope is that he wears the Englishman down or that Haye blows himself out through knockout exertions.

Were it not for the element of size weighing on our minds, Haye would indeed be the biggest bet of the year so far.

VERDICT: HAYE TO WIN @ 1.7 (Betfair)

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Khan is just 8/11 (Ladbrokes) to see off his senior opponent should the bout go ahead.

He was impressive in his points victory over Kotelnik and answered a few questions about the strength of his chin. It was just his 22nd fight as a professional and gets his career back on track after it seemed in tatters just under a year ago when he was floored in the first round by underdog Breidis Prescott.

It’s now likely that Frank Warren will attempt to make the Battle of Britain happen, although other contenders include Timothy Bradley 5/1 (Ladbrokes) and Nate Campbell 7/1 (Ladbrokes).

Ladbrokes also go 10/1 that Britain’s third youngest world champion since World War II unifies all four major belts by the end of 2010 and he’s currenty 14/1 to win the Sports Personalit of the Year award.

Khan is a tempting 9/20 (Expekt) to beat the more experienced Kotelnik who is as big as 2/1 (Betfred, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Skybet, Sportingbet, Stan James) to retain the belt. The 31-year-old may be giving Khan 9 years but he has never been knocked down in his 34-fight career and regularly takes fights all the way. Khan is 6/4 (Bet365, Boylesports) to win by decision – quite likely with a hme crowd behind him whilst Kotelnik is 11/2 (Bet365) to win it via the judges. William Hill offer 5/6 that the bout will go the distance, regardless of who wins.

All the hype is understandably around Khan and my money will be on the Pride of Bolton. 2/1 on the KO method of victory does appeal but Kotelnik’s record of lasting the course puts a bit of a dampner on that one so I’ll be taking the 9/20 (Expekt) for the outright win.

It’s been billed as the fight we’ve all been waiting for. The early hours of the morning sees Ricky ‘The Hitman’ Hatton, 45-1 (32) take on Manny ‘Pacman’ Pacquiao, 48-3-2 (36) at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas but who’ll come out on top and prove to be the supposed pound-for-pound king?

Who knows is my honest answer. I’ve been trying to sift through all the opinions, the stats and the hype that usually precedes a bout like this and I’m probably not any clearer. Amir Khan may be protecting his own interest when he says it’s a 50/50 fight but it’s an opinion mirrored by pundits and fans across the boxing world. I guess it depends which side of the pond you’re on. There’s are few Brits that dare back against the little Mancunian, so much so that his odds have been shortened to a best price 7/4 (Betfred). But that still makes him a relatively long second-best to the 8/15 (Skybet) Pacquiao. And the bookies seldom get it wrong. That the two boxers are inseperable after 12 rounds is viewed as a longshot, with Bet365 going 33/1.

Both fighters bring contrasting styles into the ring which should make for a fascinating match-up. Hatton’s experience at higher weight classes suggests he’ll be the more powerful but Manny’s fast hands mean he can switch from head to body in a blink so he could prove to be the faster fighter.

Hatton’s proven he take the punches at this weight, but Pacquiao’s experience (53 fights to Hatton’s 46) could prove vital in the long run. One thing’s for sure, this won’t be settled early. If it doesn’t go the distance then I expect it’ll be late on in the fight before one grinds down the other. For Hatton to win between rounds 10 and 12 it’s 12/1 with Bet365, for Pacquiao it’s just 6/1.

If I was forced to pick a winner I’d have to take the red, white and blue glasses and side with Manny. His quality is unquestioned and as long as he’s got the stamina, which shouldn’t be in doubt, I think he’ll be too sharp and too clever for Hatton. At 8/15 he’s a short price though so I’d be keen to look for better value and I’m going with Pacquiao to win by a decision / technical decsion. Boylesports offer 7/2 on that being the outcome and I’ll have some of that.

Selectabet’s Top Tip: Pacquiao to win by a decision / technical decsion @ 7/2 (Boylesports)

Ricky Hatton v Pauli Malignaggi – Live on Sky Box Office

If the travelling army of British fight fans hasn’t put the wind up Paulie Malignaggi then it certainly seems that Ricky Hatton’s close combat style has. The New Yorker has already pleaded with ref Kenny Bayless to keep an eye on Hatton’s ‘inside fighting’. It sounds to me as if the fight has already been won inside the heads of the two contenders.

Most pundits believe Hatton has too much in his locker for the American and although Malignaggi is durable his right hand is dodgy and might not last the fight. And despite the bout taking place in what has been a bit of a graveyard for British boxers in the past the bookies certainly think the Las Vegas showdown will end with a Hatton win.

The likeable Mancunian is best priced at just 4/9 with Boylesports and he’ll have plenty of backers this side of the pond, in fact one British bookie claimed that 95% of the money had been for the Brit. For those who fancy an upset (anyone?) Malignaggi is available at 9/4 with Sportingbet.

I get the impression that Hatton just wants to get this fight out the way and move onto bigger things and I think he can dispatch his opponent before the final bell. By all accounts Malignaggi is not in Hatton’s league – despite the hype and I fancy a KO/TKO win for Hatton at 31/20 with Canbet (or 3/1 Betfred, Blue Sq, Boylesports, Coral, VCBet).

As a wee longshot punt I’ll also be having a little wager on the fight being stopped in the 8th for Hatton at a nice 80/1 with Paddy Power.

If you’re staying up to watch the fight I hope it’s a good’un and good luck with your bet.

Joe Calzaghe’s final payday may not be the foregone conclusion that his adoring fans seem to think it will be. He squares upto fight legend Roy Jones Jnr at Madison Square Gardens in New York in the early hours of Sunday morning and whilst there’s no titles on the line, Calzaghe’s reputation certainly is. After a career that spans 15 undefeated years and 45 victories, Calzaghe stands to pocket a multi-million pound purse but defeat to 40-year-old Jones would be an awful way to end the Welshman’s career.

Whilst many fight fans wish this bout would have taken place six or seven years ago there’s still plenty of pride at stake and it should make for a cracker.

So who’ll come out on top?

I read an interesting piece on the NewsToday.com website where they polled 25 fighters, journalists, trainers and pundits on who would win the bout. The results were surprisingy close with 11 opting for the American, Jones, and the remaining 14 siding with Calzaghe. Few of them suggested the fight wouldn’t go the distance and most expected a close points decision to swing it either way.

But the bookies think it’s far more clear cut and Calzaghe’s best price is just 4/11 (Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Sportingbet, VCBet) to win the fight. If you’re swayed by the opinions of the likes of Bernard Hopkins, Lennox Lewis and Jeff Lacy then the 5/2 (Sportingbet) on Jones to be the victor will certainly appeal.

For the fight to go the distance it just 4/9 (VCBet) but that looks a reasonably safe option. I you want to side with Calzaghe on a decision then the best you’ll get is 5/6 (Ladbrokes, VCBet), whereas with Jones it’s 9/2 (Boylesports). If you fancy a knock-out it’s 4/1 (Bet Direct, Stan James) for Calzaghe and an unlikely 13/2 ((Bet Direct, Stan James) for Jones.

I’m sure British fight fans will be backing Joe no matter the price and I’ll be joining them. The guy is a legend and it’s the last chance we’ll get to cash in on him beating up another contender. I’m going with 5/6 (Ladbrokes, VCBet) on Joe to win it ater the final bell.

C’mon Joe!!!

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The bookies early odds suggest it might be a bit of a walk in the park for ‘The Hitman’. He’s best priced at 1/8 with BetInternet to defeat Juan Lazcano for the IBO Light-Welterweight title. Lazcano for his part is as big as 17/2 (Skybet) to cause an upset.

If you’re looking for early value then have a butchers at the ‘Round Betting’ market. Hatton to win on points is the clear favourite at just 13/8 with Betfred. If it doesn’t go the distance then bookies think Hatton is most likely to win in the 7th or 8th round, priced at 12/1 and 11/1 respectively with Totesport.

It’d pay to get on some these odds early as they’re likely to shorten as the week goes on and attention moves away from the Champions League.