Selectabet’s Grand National Tips

gn_mccoy

The Stats Don’t Lie. Few sporting events are as rich in history, statistics and trends as the Grand National and I’m going to use this information to narrow the field to four contenders that could earn a place in the first four and ultimately pick the winner based on a range of undeniable trends. So sit down, make yourself comfy and see how easy it is to pick the winner of the Grand National.

So here goes. Which horses will navigate the history books and come out on top based on 8 key criteria such as their age, weight, jumping ability and big race successes?

Weight

The first statistical hurdle that any prospective winner needs to get over is that of it’s weight. During the last 24 years, all winners have carried between 10-0 & 11-1. Given the tremendous effort required to win the race its logical that horses carrying extra weight simply don’t have the energy to tackle the monumental fences and mount a serious challenge.

This is probably the single biggest indicator of all the trends and this year there are more horses carrying over 11st than ever before. Getting rid of those outwith the weight range reduces the field straight away from 40 to 23.

Fallers at the first fence are; Madison Du Berlais, Mon Mone, Vic Venturi, Black Apalachi, Joe Lively, Don’t Push It, Comply or Die, Tricky Trickster, Niche Market, Made in Taipan, Pablo Du Charmil, Dream Alliance, Cloudy Lane, Nozic and My Will

Age

The next statistic to be negotiated is age. 10 of the last 13 winners were aged 9 or 10 although broadly speaking the favoured age band is 8 – 12. Anything under 8 and the horse is deemed too inexperienced, whereas anything over 12 and it’s quite simply too old to be expected to compete against some of the younger guns.

On the basis of an 8, 9, 10, 11 or 12 year old winning again this year round a further 3 runners come a cropper at this fence; The Package, Piraya and Palypso De Creek.

Class

All winners in the last 17 years were officially rated between 136 & 155 in the Class bands. This kinda makes sense, as anything rated under 136 shouldn’t be good enough to win the race. But why not anything above 155? I’m not sure. If a horse is above that rating then why can’t it win?

So that I don’t exclude any horses that are rated above 155, I’m just going to discard those that are under 136. That’s a further 3 horses ruled out at this hurdle; Irish Raptor, Hello Bud and Cerium.

Distance

National winners have generally already proven their staying power in previous races. Although the Grand National is another step up, every winner since 1988, with the one exception of Monty’s Pass, have won a chase over at least 3m 1f prior to running in the Grand National.

The pace out there on the course is relentless and it’s highly unlikely that a horse that’s yet to win over a significant distance will do so for the first time on the big day.

So this time it’s horses that have yet to win over 3 miles that are eliminated. There are just three left in the field that haven’t and they are King Johns Castle, Conna Castle and Maljimar

Big Race Wins

In the past 17 years all but one of the winners had won a race worth at least £19,000 prior to arriving at Aintree. Even the one that hadn’t, Party Politics, had finished 2nd twice in events worth £23,000 and £37,000. This is a good indicator of big race experience – something that’s vital if you’re going to win the National.

Of the remaining 13 runners, All but 1 of them have previously won races worth in excess of £20,000. Goodbye Ballyfitz.

Form

Form is always important in assessing any race and none more so that the Grand National. All winners since 1988 have won previously in either January, February, March or April. That being the case, there are 6 horses that have yet to register a win this season so they fall at this obstacle; Preist’s Leap, Snowy Morning, State of Play, Character Building, Ollie Magern and Arbor Supreme.

Experience

So now we’ve just 6 horses left and it’s getting more and more difficult to separate them, so I’ve chosen to get rid of those that have never run over the Nation fences before. The Grand National is a one-off and it’s a huge advantage to have jumped the Aintree fences previously.

That means we need to say bye to two more; Beat The Boys and Backstage.

And that leaves us with our final 4; Big Fella Thanks, Can’t Buy Time, Eric’s Charm and Ellerslie George. It’s almost impossible to split them.

Jumping Ability

This really is splitting hairs now but of the 4 remaining horses Big Fella Thanks and Eric’s Charm have both fallen twice to Can’t Buy Time and Ellerslie George’s once in their careers. If I’m being ruthless then it’s the latter that make my final two.

Toss A Coin

I am tempted to. But there’s still a few criteria that we can refine upon. Can’t Buy Time has won more prize money despite being 2 years younger than Ellerslie George but the latter falls within the magical 9-10 year-old bracket. He’s also run over the Grand National fences twice to Can’t Buy Time’s once. He’s more experienced in chase races, 17 to 13, but Can’t Buy Time is rated a better horse (147 to 141) and has won more races over 3 miles (4 versus 2). Aaaaargh I just can’t decide so I’ll go with the one that represents the best value and side with Ellerslie George.