It’s just over one month until Americans go to the polls to decide the next President of the United States and it’s no surprise that the odds in this two-horse race are fluctuating with each debate, each revelation and each passing day.
In the last 24 hours for example, odds on Donald Trump have come in from 11/4 to a best price 13/5 (Bet365) continuing an ongoing trend that has seen the gap between himself and Hillary Clinton shorten. Odds on the one-time 100/1 shot could yet shorten further with news from Julian Assange yesterday that Wikileaks are about to unleash 1 million documents related to the US Government that are likely to damage Clinton’s presidential campaign.
“The material that WikiLeaks is going to publish before the end of the year is of … a very significant moment in different directions, affecting three powerful organizations in three different states as well as … the U.S election process,” he said via a video link at an event marking the group’s 10th anniversary.
A cursory glance at odds comparison site, OddsChecker shows that Trump is the one who the punters are backing. They state that 37.80% of all bets on the Next President market are for Trump, whilst Clinton has attracted 36.64% – although it may well be the odds that are skewing those percentages rather than the actual chances, after all, would you back Hillary at 4/11 (BetVictor, Coral)?
Personally I wouldn’t but if the polls are to be believed then you could be buying money. Real Clear Politics has Clinton ahead on the vast majority of polls available. They predict Clinton can be guaranteed to deliver 205 electoral votes to Trump’s 165, however it will be the 165 ‘toss-up’ votes that determine who wins the race to the White House. If Brexit taught us anything then it’s not to trust the polls.
From here on in it’s very likely that Trump’s odds will get closer to Clinton’s – although when backing him you do so at your own risk as he’s just one quip away from destroying his whole campaign at any given moment – so he could offer a good trading opportunity where you can get out with a profit before the voting opens.