Watford meet Leicester for the first time since last April’s extraordinary play-off semi-final. Watford won that game 3-1 to make the Championship play-off final and I’m going to back them to score at least two goals on Saturday at 21/20.
The Hornets have stuttered a little in recent weeks- winning 1 of their last 4 but they’ve continued to score freely, netting 13 in 6 home games and this bet would have banked in 3 of those fixtures at Vicarage Road. That includes their last match in front of their home fans when they were outplayed in a 3-2 defeat to Derby but still managed to score twice.
The Hornets have notched 25 goals so far this season; they’re the joint-top scorers in the league and you can see they average over 2 goals-a-game. And whilst Leicester have risen to second in the table on the back of a great run of form, they’ve not been anywhere near tight at the back. Seven games now without a clean sheet in the league for the Foxes, just one away in the Championship and Fulham scored 3 at the KP on Tuesday night where they’ve been quite formidable…
Over 2.5 Goals is an 8/11 shot and I think that’ll attract plenty of punters but on paper I’d have Watford down as the likeliest winners of this encounter. Neither can be trusted to keep the other side out so having Watford to score Over 1.5 Goals at 21/20 seems a fair price when you look at the quality throughout that squad going forward and Gianfranco Zola’s dedicated attacking philosophy in Hertfordshire.
Watford to score Over 1.5 Goals at 21/20 with Sportingbet
Bristol City finally got their first win of the season last weekend; it was their first in 22 league outings. Jay Emmanuel Thomas took the plaudits after his hat-trick inspired the Robins to a surprise 4-2 win at Carlisle. Will that bring a turnaround in form? I’d hope so, if only for Sean O’Driscoll’s case who’s remained unmoved from his own footballing ideology despite their wavering results.
Goals have been a feature of Bristol City games – 4/6 home matches have seen Over 2.5 Goals and their opponents Oldham have also seen plenty when playing away – 10/19 have seen three goals or more on the road. Overs does appeal at 10/11 but to make that happen I think we’d be relying on Bristol City to score at least two and therefore the bigger price attracts at 23/20 for the home side to score Over 1.5 Goals.
Despite their lowly form, City have scored in 11/13 matches this season, have the likes of Sam Baldock, Scott Wagstaff and Marvin Elliott in their ranks and even Marlon Harewood’s popped up with a goal for the Robins.
O’Driscoll’s charges have hit 20 goals already this season – admittedly only 6 of those have come at home, but they have faced 4 of the top 6 at Ashton Gate already this season – an impressive tally for a team propping up the League One table.
Oldham have been playing well but not been getting the results their performances have probably warranted. Worryingly for Lee Johnson, they’re conceding goals at an alarming rate – 22 already this campaign but it’s away from home where they’re really struggling.
Six defeats from 7 on the road for the Latics and they’ve leaked at least 2 goals in 6 of those 7 matches. They’ve actually conceded at least 3 goals in 3 of those 7 and have just 1 clean sheet in 14 League One matches to their name this season.
Bristol City to score Over 1.5 Goals at 23/20 with Sportingbet
Time to talk about Coventry once more. There’s only so many times you can repeat yourself and this column knows I’ve been getting them onside regularly this season. I’ll be doing so again on Saturday and I’m taking them to score 2 goals or more against Notts County.
County sacked Chris Kiwomya last Sunday and they reacted with a 3-2 victory over Oldham at home in midweek to move off the bottom. However, iIt was the fourth time in their last 6 and eight occasion in 14 this season they’ve conceded at least 2 goals in a game.
They’re better than their league position suggests but they’ve lost 8 of their last 10 away games, conceded 17 in 7 on the road in League One this term and at least 2 goals in 6 of those 7…
They’re coming up against a Coventry team that just look set for a top-six finish despite their points deduction, should they keep their squad fit as they’ve only 14 professionals.
The Sky Blues have scored 19 goals at home and this bet would have landed in 6/7 fixtures at Sixfields. So when you put the two teams respective records together for this bet, it would have banked 12/14 times and that’s why I’m backing it at 7/10.
Coventry to score Over 1.5 Goals at 7/10 with Sportingbet