Tuesday 11th December 2018,


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Greg’s Lay of the Day

posted by Greg Larmouth
Greg’s Lay of the Day

As the title suggests, today’s NAP see’s me going into uncharted waters (there’s a clue to the horse) as I pick out a short-priced horse I think is sure to lose today.

John Gosden trained Derwentwater, currently 5/4 favourite for the 1:20 at Kempton, is making something of a habit of finishing 2nd in races, having done it on 3 occasions now.

The phrase ‘always the bridesmaid, never the bride’ pops into my head every time I see the horse mentioned. Clearly it’s fancied that today will be his day, but then it was also fancied to be his day when 3 1/4 lengths behind Sweet Force at Lingfield, and when 1/2 length behind Tilstarr at the same course, both at the start of the year. Indeed last week the horse finished a head 2nd to Darkest Night, the closest he’s been to a win thus far, but unfortunately the numbers are beginning to stack up. None of these horses had previously shown any hint of great ability, and Tilstarr has subsequently been 3rd of 5 in a handicap not much better than this.

Of his opponents today, we have Mudaawem, a horse that flopped on his handicap debut, but makes his first appearance on the all weather. Given his trainer, this could well be a positive. We also have Camachoice, a horse I’ve fancied to do well in the past but has yet to deliver. The Marco Botti trained colt is making his handicap debut, and only his 4th ever start today, and he should do better in this as well. The former is available at 4/1 with Paddy Power, while the latter is 5/1 with Bet365.

We also have Ishigunnaeatit for Elaine Burke, making a step up in trip is likely to suit, and today’s jockey, Robert Tart, was on the receiving end of some high praise amongst the horse racing community last week, with eye catching displays left right and centre. He’s sure to have his followers again today, with some decent chances, and I would rate his mount in this amongst his best chances. The horse is currently 7/1, and if I were to tip anything to win, I would edge towards that horse as the value in the race, with Camachoice the quality if picking up.

Greg’s Lay of the Day:

1:20 Kempton – Derwentwater

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Meet the Author

I've been going to the races since I was a kid, so always liked a flutter, but it's only in the last couple of years I've really put some time into studying form and stats etc. From there I started my blog, which helped me concentrate on specific races (maidens), and found my selections being pretty successful. I also like a bet on the football, NBA and occasionally boxing.

User Name: Greg Larmouth

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