Saturday 15th December 2018,


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Twiston-Davies Family Striking For Gold At Newbury

posted by Greg Larmouth
Twiston-Davies Family Striking For Gold At Newbury

The NAP hat trick landed yesterday as Outlaw Torn won, having been available at 6/1 early doors… but it didn’t stop there.

As if that wasn’t enough, I followed it up in the next race with Piscean. Tipped at 14/1, the horse went off at 20/1 and romped home in a tight finish with Woodfall Sovereign. Courtesy of the Best Odds Guaranteed offered by the likes of Paddy Power, Bet365 and BetVictor amongst others, those that followed my advice will now be reaping the rewards.

The big question now though, is how to follow the seemingly unfollowable. There’s the final day of the Leopardstown Christmas Festival in Ireland, as well as some competitive handicap races at Doncaster and Newbury, including the Blue Square Bet Handicap Chase and the Betfred Goals Galore Handicap Hurdle respectively.

2:55 Doncaster

My first selection today is in the highly competitive Blue Square Bet Handicap Chase at Doncaster. Andrew Tinkler’s mount, Safran De Cotte, is available at best price 11/2 with Sky Bet and Paddy Power, though Sky Bet, Coral and Bet365 offer enhanced place terms of 1/4 odds first three places. The ground is likely to suit this horse, and he was forced to give weight to subsequent Winner Super Duty and Poungach last time out. He has also proven his stamina for this 3m trip, which can’t be said for likely favourite Triptico. Evan Williams’ gelding can be backed at 4/1 with Bet365, Betfred, BetVictor, Totesport and Paddy Power, and should his stamina hold out, is certainly the horse they have to beat. I’m willing to take a chance on Henry Daly’s gelding at least being there or thereabouts.

3:15 Newbury

The second of two big races at Newbury today, I’ve opted to steer clear of the Novice’s hurdle in favour of this Handicap Hurdle sponsored by Betfred. Top weight Any Given Day represents the usually successful pairing of McCain and Maguire in this, and can go well fresh, making it an interesting proposition at best price 9/1 with Paddy Power and StanJames, with the latter also offering 1/4 odds for each-way. Though I’m wary of the 7yo, I’ve opted for the younger African Gold. The 4yo has won 3 and came second to Ballybough Pat in his four races so far, and so the race before this could be an interesting indicator, with that horse coming up against some decent looking animals. The latest of Nigel Twiston-Davies’ gelding’s wins came over C&D, and though this is an obvious step up in grade, I feel the horse could be interesting at 5/1 (BetVictor, Paddy Power, Bet365, Sky Bet), particularly as the latter two bookmakers also offer 1/4 odds. The only other horse to interest in terms of value is Bakbenscher. He is available best price 9/2 with Ladbrokes, Boylesport, William Hill and Sky Bet, with the latters 1/4 odds e/w making the price more appealing. Wayne Hutchinson takes the mount again, having won with the horse last time out on heavy ground over 2m4f in a similarly rated contest. However he has a penalty for that win, and being only a week ago, this may be too much too soon for him.

4:10 Wolverhampton

Woza Moya, from the Miss Gay Kelleway yard, beat Rakticate by less than a length here at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago. That was on level weighting, however, and Rakticate is now 2lb better off, which could yet prove decisive. They are also similarly priced, with the latter 7/1 with Bet365 and BetVictor, and Robert Winstone’s mount at 6/1 with the same bookies. John Moore’s filly has finished 2nd on 3 consecutive runs, all over this track, however, I’m interested by another horse with course experience. Rakticate’s stablemate Myzamour has won one, and placed one in 3 races over C&D, and is available at 12/1 with the aforementioned bookmakers.

(edit: Myzamour has since been declared a NR in the race, so I have opted for stablemate Rakticate in a tentative e/w vote at 7/1)

4:40 Wolverhampton

There are 3 runners in this with course form, and it’s these 3 that I’ve concentrated on. Six Of Clubs is the co-favourite overnight with Vimiero at 9/4 with BetVictor and Bet365. Seb Sanders’ mount has won 3 in 5 over C&D, though he was disappointing on the last of his runs here before following up with victory at Lingfield. Luke Morris takes the reins on The Absent Mare, who came in for support last time out, but only managed 4th. The filly has won over C&D before, and her time could be coming again. She’s up at 7/2, also with BetVictor and Bet365, but doesn’t really appeal to me. That leaves Rosewood Lad, who is from the same yard as the previous selection and ridden by Fergus Sweeney. The pair show a small profit when working together, and this horse has a phenomenal record over C&D, winning 3 times and finishing 2nd a further 3 times from 7 races. At a massive 10/1 with the 2 aforementioned bookies, the gelding is fantastic value, and warrants huge respect despite being off the track for 263 days. Admittedly this is a worry, but at the price, it’s difficult not to take a chance on him being fully prepared.

Greg’s Selections:

Safran De Cotte e/w (11/2) NAP

African Gold e/w (5/1)

Myzamour e/w (12/1) NON-RUNNER REPLACED Raktican e/w (7/1)

Rosewood Lad e/w (10/1)

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Meet the Author

I've been going to the races since I was a kid, so always liked a flutter, but it's only in the last couple of years I've really put some time into studying form and stats etc. From there I started my blog, which helped me concentrate on specific races (maidens), and found my selections being pretty successful. I also like a bet on the football, NBA and occasionally boxing.

User Name: Greg Larmouth

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  • e/w inc the nap………….man I can do better and I know nothing about horse racing !

    • Go for it. Lets have your tips for tomorrow then mate. All are welcome here.

    • At 5/1 or more, why not take the option of the e/w… I could have picked out numerous winners today at short odds, but I prefer to seek value in my bets. Nobody wants to be told Hurricane Fly has a good chance at 1/4. If you’d like to compare notes though, then by all means James get in touch. You’ll be pleased to see a 5/1 Winner today means another small profit if you had even stakes for each selection as well.

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