It’s international weekend and time for one of my favourite bets. I like to bet against some of the international minnows who seldom score and take a range of correct scores against them.
Cover 3 bets across each game and you’ve a chance of winning at big odds for a relatively small stake (I once managed a 531-1 treble). Here goes with my picks for Friday.
First on the list is Hungary away to Andorra. The Andorrans don’t score many – just one the last campaign (against Ireland) so a clean sheet for the visitors looks almost certain. It’s just a matter of how many for Hungary?
Although we don’t expect Andorra to score recent history tells us they don’t take too many hammerings at home. Their biggest defeat on home soil in Euro 2012 qualifying was a 3-0 loss to Armenia. Their other home ties ended 0-2, 0-2, 0-2 and 0-1. So the spread of results looks best set at 0-2, 0-3 and 0-4 to Hungary.
Despite being the biggest outsiders on the coupon I still think this bet could be a bit risky. Of course Germany are going to win but can we rely on them keeping a clean sheet?
Last time they visited Germany the Faroese almost pulled off a shock result, coming away with a creditable 2-1 defeat. That was followed by a 2-0 loss at home. Most recently they’ve recorded a win against Estonia and scored in Serbia, Slovenia and Romania so their not in the same class of minnow as Andorra.
Despite all that we’re still happy to back the bouyant Germans to win without conceding although we don’t think it’ll be a cricket score. Faroes’ average goals against in their last 5 on the road is 4 and Germany are well capable of notching that amount. Cover the spread of 3-0, 4-0 and 5-0.
Third and finally pick is a tricky one. Portugal at Luxembourg looks an obviosu pick but the Portuguese have shown a tendancy to lose goals when least expected (4 to Cyprus, 3 to Iceland in recent years) so I’m steering clear. Bosnia-Herzegovina at Leichtenstein should also see a clean sheet for the visitors but I know little about them and Leichtenstein are also on a bit of a rise.
So, it’s to Russia for the early kick-off of the day. Michael O’Neill has his work cut out with the Northern Irish squad and his task hasn’t been helped by some withdrawals. His team ARE capable of scoring – I just don’t think they will. Russia too have only two fit strikers apparently but I expect them to turn it on for Capello’s first game in charge. I’m covering a Russian win by 2-0, 3-0 or 4-0.