Selectabet’s Grand National 2011 Tips

Few races are as rich in history as the Aintree Grand National. And few races have the vast array of stats and trends that surrounds this, the most famous in the world.

Every year I try to use those historical pointers to narrow the field of 40 runners to a handful of serious contenders all based on the characteristics of previous winners. For me it’s a s good a method as any in trying to pick the winner of Grand National.

So here goes with a statistical dissection of the field to find the one horse that I’ll be lumping on…

Weight

My first qualifying criteria is the weight the horse will be carrying. Last year’s winner Don’t Push it was the first horse in the last 26 years to carry more than 11-1 to victory. All previous winners over that period have carried between 10-0 & 11-1 and I’m happy to stay with that trend so that means we can discount a large section of the field including the likes of last year’s winner Don’t Push It and Sir Alex Ferguson’s What A Friend. Also falling at this hurdle are Majestic Concorde and Vic Venturi.

Age

The next statistic to be negotiated is age. 11 of the last 14 winners were aged 9 or 10 although broadly speaking the favoured age band is 8 – 12. Anything under 8 and the horse is deemed too inexperienced, whereas anything over 12 and it’s quite simply too old to be expected to compete against some of the younger guns.

So horses ruled out on the basis of being outwith the 9 – 10 age band include Quinz, Quilobet and Hello Bud.

Class

All winners in the last 18 years were officially rated between 136 & 155 in the Class bands. This kinda makes sense, as anything rated under 136 shouldn’t be good enough to win the race. But why not anything above 155? I’m not sure. If a horse is above that rating then why can’t it win?

So that I don’t exclude any horses that are rated above 155, I’m just going to discard those that are under 136.

Out go the likes of Priaya, Character Building and bottom-weight Golden Kite.

Distance

National winners have generally already proven their staying power in previous races. Although the Grand National is another step up, every winner since 1988, with the one exception of Monty’s Pass, have won a chase over at least 3m 1f prior to running in the Grand National.

The pace out there on the course is relentless and it’s highly unlikely that a horse that’s yet to win over a significant distance will do so for the first time on the big day.

So this time it’s horses that have yet to win over 3 miles that are eliminated. Becauseicouldntsee and In Compliance are therefore ruled out too.

Big Race Wins

In the past 18 years all but one of the winners had won a race worth at least £19,000 prior to arriving at Aintree. Even the one that hadn’t, Party Politics, had finished 2nd twice in events worth £23,000 and £37,000. This is a good indicator of big race experience – something that’s vital if you’re going to win the National.

Of the remaining 18 runners, All but 3 of them have previously won races worth in excess of £20,000. Goodbye The Tother One, Calgary Bay, King Fontaine and That’s Rhythm

Form

Form is always important in assessing any race and none more so that the Grand National. All winners since 1988 have won previously in either January, February, March or April. That being the case, there are 9 horses that have yet to register a win this season so they fall at this obstacle; Big Fella Thanks, Niche Market, Chief Dan George, Killyglen, OScar Time, Bluesea Cracker, Surface to Air and Arbor Supreme.

That leaves just 5 in contention and it’s really splitting hairs to try and separate them. Normally I’d look at Aintree experience but there one stat that leaves one of the remaining horses out on his own.

Jumping Ability

Only one horse has yet to fall in their career and there’s no doubting you’ve got to know your way over a fece or two to complete the gruelling intree course. That horse is West End Rocker and he’s my pick for 2011 Grand National Glory.

Selectabet’s Best Bet

• West End Rocker 33/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power)

Selectabet’s Other Recommendations

• Ballabriggs 14/1 (Paddy Power)
• The Midnight Club 10/1 (Bet365)
• Silver By Nature 16/1 (Bet365)
• Grand Slam Hero 100/1 (Bet365)

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