Uruguay v Ghana: Betting Preview

Uruguay v Ghana

Betfair’s Dave Farrar selects the best bets as his pre-tournament tips for a semi-final place meet the World Cup’s last remaining African nation in a quarter-final clash.

It’s hard to describe quite how much the progress of Ghana has enhanced this tournament, and excited the people of South Africa. Interest in the World Cup would not have faded completely because, after all, Bafana Bafana and Brazil go hand in hand, but Africans have a team to cheer in the last eight, and the huge Ghanaian population here in Johannesburg will ensure a great atmosphere at Soccer City on Friday night. Some people seem to be looking down on this game almost as if it’s unworthy of a World Cup quarter-final, but I don’t buy that. The joy of a World Cup is as much about games like this (when else will you see Uruguay play Ghana?!) as it is about traditional rivalries.

Match Odds

Both teams have done remarkably well to get this far and those who followed the pre-tournament advice to back Uruguay for a place in the semi-finals at 20.0, don’t really need to have another bet. They’re now trading at 1.57, and you can either lock in a profit or hope that they get past a tough Ghana team.

Both sides are immensely strong defensively, although the part that two formidable central midfields have played in both teams’ successes so far has perhaps been underestimated. Both Ghana’s and Uruguay’s centre-halves are among the best protected at World Cup 2010. Even though Uruguay are without Diego Godin for this game, the likelihood is that there won’t be many goals at Soccer City, and that Friday evening will be about the occasion more than the spectacle. But that’s fine. It’s a World Cup, and these are the sides who have qualified.

If I had to choose between these two, then I’d go for Uruguay to win it narrowly, but as I’m already on them at a big price to win the tournament, and the above mentioned 20.0 on them to reach the quarters, I won’t be having a bet. If you’re after value in this market, then it surely has to be Ghana at 4.3. I see the game as far closer than that price suggests.

First Goalscorer/To Score

The obvious candidate here is Luis Suarez, who has suddenly found his Ajax form in the last couple of games. It’s easy to say that the Dutch League is rubbish but his record of 35 goals in 33 League games last season always had to be respected, and now he is showing us how he put that record together. His winner against Korea Republic was one of the moments of this tournament so far.

Diego Forlan has started to play in a much more withdrawn role, and for all his quality in front of goal, there’s a chance that Uruguay could get all the way to the final and he could end the tournament on two goals. Asamoah Gyan scored a fabulous winner at the USA, but he has shown us over the last few seasons in France that he is a bit of a hit and hope merchant. For every finish that looks as good as the one at Rustenburg there are 10 efforts which fly over the bar at considerable power. I can’t recommend Suarez or Gyan at prices of 3.0 and 3.6, and aside from that, I’d be lying if I saw an edge elsewhere in this market.
Correct Score

If you’re desperate to have a bet on this game, then this is the market to throw a couple of quid at. Under 1.5 and 2.5 goals are worth a look, but those markets are being looked after elsewhere, so, rather than back the team that you fancy to edge it in the Match Odds market, take them at 1-0 in the Correct Score. I can’t see it being anything other than cagey and tight, and for all that Ghana are a big price in the Match Odds market, I still favour Uruguay to nick it. Tight games tend to come down to finishing, and Uruguay have the class in front of goal that Ghana lack. They’re my selection at 6.6

Finally, a word about Bookings Odds. The bookings market in particular has offered a lot of value in this tournament, with people seemingly keen to assume that these rugged South American sides are all about muscle and indiscipline. Not so. Uruguay have been well disciplined aside from Nicolas Lodeiro’s opening game red card, and that was a case of a player being an idiot rather than some team philosophy. Since the opening game against France, only two Uruguayan players have been shown yellow cards, and despite their aggressive tackling, Ghana have averaged two cards a game. If anyone is prepared to take a price of 1.7 about there being nine bookings points or more here, then it could just be the best best of a pretty difficult heat.

Over/Under 2.5 goals (by Matthew Walton)

Ghana are 100% for low make-ups so far in these finals with a perfect 4/4 record for under 2.5 goals in their group and R16 games. In fact, in their last 25 internationals the Africans are actually 17:8 in favour of the lower figure.

Uruguay, more productive by nature, operate at 50% strike rate here in South Africa with a 2/2 split on the over/under 2.5 goals market – rather in keeping with their general performance level which shows a 13:12 preference for the higher figure.

Such mixed messages from the statistics are further complicated by both teams showing defensive strength in their matches to date (Uruguay have conceded only one goal in four matches, Ghana just three) but a definite threat upfront, even if they haven’t the goals to show for it.

However, it’s the threat of goals without an end product which ultimately swings the argument in favour of under 2.5 goals 1.54 here in Johannesburg.

• Best Bet: Lay nine bookings points or more in Uruguay v Ghana @ 1.7
• Recommended Bet: Uruguay to win 1-0 @ 6.6

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