Group A Betting: Hosts will find it tough

Anyone who witnessed Mexico’s display against England last week, or knows a thing or two about the partnership of Uruguay’s Forlan and Suarez will  know that France may not get it all their own way in World Cup Group A.

Mexico

Coach Javier Aguirre resurrected their doomed Sven Goran Eriksson experiment and salvaged qualification with an impressive 5 wins out of 6. He also won them the Gold Cup and can point to previous World Cup success on his CV with El Tri, should his credentials be brought into question. They’re a smart outfit who knock the ball about well, however they do appear to lack a cutting edge. Outwith their 5-1 thrashing of Gambia at the weekend they’d scored just 5 in the previous 7 so don’t be expecting them to set this group alight with goals, goals, goals.

France

And that’s where France come in. For all the millions of pounds worth of talent at their disposal, under Raymond Domenech they’re a shadow of the team they should be. Seldom has a team gone into the tournament with a coach who is so universally decried, and if France somehow manage to put in a successful showing in South Africa most will consider it in spite of Domenech rather than because of him.

Uruguay

But France’s biggest concern could come in the shape of Uruguay. In Oscar Tabarez they’ve a manager who’s been round the block, and back again. He led the nation to a last 16 berth in 1990 and stints in charge of Boca Juniors and AC Milan suggests he’s a man that’s well respected in the game. Unlike Mexico, Uruguay have that invaluable commodity of goalscorers in their squad. Plenty of Liverpool fans will testify to the form of their nemesis Diego Forlan who was brilliant over two legs against them in the Europa League. He’s joined in attack by the prolific Ajax hitman Luis Suarez who’s strike rate rivals some of the best at almost a goal a game. The words “dark” and “horse” will be used a lot in the coming weeks. Uruguay definitely fall into that category.

South Africa

Making up the numbers in the group are South Africa. No host has failed to qualify for the second round of a World Cup tournament, or at least recorded a win, but this looks a tough ask for a South African side who wouldn’t be anywhere near the tournament if they weren’t hosts. Of course home advantage can count for a lot but for a squad that has only 7 overseas player in it, national fervour is going to have to carry them a long, long way.

The Betting

Picking the winner in this group could be tricky. Will France get it together from the start or will they need some time to warm-up? Can Mexico turn nice football and possession into goals and victories? Can Uruguay realise the potential that underpins their squad?

I certainly wouldn’t be looking at 11/10 (Bet365) on the French to top the group. However each of Mexico (7/2 Betfred) and Uruguay (7/2 SkyBet) could represent decent value. But the one bet that stands out for me is for the hosts to finish bottom of Group A at 11/8 (Bet365). Only 3 of their squad ply their trade in any of the big 5 European leagues, in fact all three are in the Premier League (Everton, Fulham & Portsmouth). That speaks volumes about the gulf in class they’ll need to bridge. The fixtures could also be crucial too as they face France in the last game of the group and if the French haven’t secured qualification by then there will be no easing off or resting of players.

Best Bet

• South Africa to finish bottom of Group A 11/8 (Bet365)

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