Millwall v Swindon: Betting Preview & Tips

A season of League One previews comes to a close for Betfair’s Alan Dudman with his look at Saturday’s Wembley play-off final

I broke my theatrical duck last week, having sat through the three hour epic of Les Miserables (albeit arriving 15 minutes late) at the Queen’s. I am hoping this Saturday’s League One play-off final at Wembley will take less time than the West End spectacular, and it will be Millwall holding the title of ‘Master of the House’ after 90 minutes across the other side of the capital.

I should also mention the strange twist of fate from Friday evening at ‘Les Miz’ (I believe that’s what we go with now. I was sitting just in front of none other than Scunthorpe manager Nigel Adkins. His side of course won last season’s play-off showpiece where Millwall were the beaten opponents. I will go and see the show again in 2011 – when I will hopefully bump into Kenny Jackett. A strange coincidence.

Ahead of Saturday’s final Millwall, quite rightly, hold sway in both the promotion market 1.66 and match odds at 2.24, and were more impressive in their semi-final dismantling of Huddersfield than Swindon were over the two legs against Charlton. Swindon trade at 2.46 for promotion incidentally and are nearer to 4.0 on the match odds, which is generous.

The Londoners, however, showed how strong they were in those two Huddersfield games, closing down the midfield at every opportunity, stopping the Yorkshire side’s passing game, and keeping quiet 20-odd goal forward Jordan Rhodes who barely had a kick.

Swindon’s journey to Wembley was more fraught with danger, having successfully negotiated a penalty shoot-out at The Valley. My thinking from that game was Charlton had so much of the match they ought to have won, but Swindon always threatened on the counter and young forward Charlie Austin has pace to burn – which could worry the Lions.

Team news: Swindon boss Danny Wilson has most to worry about. Skipper Gordon Greer (an immense figure at the back) is out through suspension. Left-back Alan Sheehan is rated 50/50 with a pelvic injury, whilst 29-goal Billy Paynter and goalkeeper David Lucas have to shake off shoulder and hamstring injuries. Wilson uses a 4-4-2 with emphasis on play on-the-break.

Millwall should have a fully fit squad to choose from, with Shaun Batt, Alan Dunne and Chris Hackett all hopeful of getting through a week’s training heading into the final. Jackett’s formation is a solid 4-1-3-2, with Jimmy Abdou breaking the play in front of the back four.

Build-up: The Lions have play-off experience, and this is virtually the same team which lost the final to Scunthorpe in 2009. Jackett said: “I have used last year’s experience only to a degree. Let’s be fair, we’ve been knocking on the door for couple of years now.”

Swindon have exceeded expectations with a brilliant season. Injuries would be a worry as the basis of their success has been a settled side throughout the campaign.

Trading pointers: Millwall are not a gung-ho side, and would be happy to control the game for long periods. A 0-0 play at 12.0 is a good starting point to trade out at half-time. The likeliest final score for me is 1-0 11.5.

Swindon will badly miss Greer at the heart of their defence, and it shows in the ‘Clean Sheet Market’. They are 4.1 yes, and 1.26 no. Millwall are the stronger defensively, and at 2.98 for clean sheet odds, they rate a serious play.

I often like to dabble in the first goalscorer markets. I see Millwall winning the game, and this brings into play veteran frontman Neil Harris 7.00 and 23-goal forward Steve Morison at 5.5. Swindon’s Charlie Austin has been a revelation and is very quick. He’ll have supporters at 6.0

God forbid the game goes to penalties. It might be worth having a little tickle before the match on the ‘Method Of Victory’ market. ‘Millwall Pens’ is priced at 12.0, and should be looked at considering the Lions have a brilliant keeper in David Forde – who excels at penalty saves.

Best bets:

• Back Millwall to win @ 2.26
• Back Neil Harris 7.0 and Steve Morison 5.5 in first goalscorer market

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