Liverpool v Chelsea: Betting Preview & Tips

Liverpool v Chelsea

Live on Sky Sports 1. Kick off 1.30pm

It’s crunch time in the Premier League title race says Betfair’s “Mystical” Mike Norman, and he believes Chelsea will beat Liverpool without any help from the opposition.

It’s not much of a shout, but this match has ‘title decider’ written all over it. Let’s be honest – forgetting conspiracy theories for one moment – Manchester Untied will beat Sunderland after this game has concluded, and they’ll beat Stoke at Old Trafford next week. Chelsea will beat Wigan next Sunday, which means a win at Anfield for Carlo Ancelotti’s men and they’ll be champions; any other result and United will retain their crown. Simple really!

What isn’t quite as simple however is envisaging a victory for Chelsea against a Liverpool side that will be desperate to finish the season on a high.

Let me address the ‘conspiracy theory’ angle before I go any further. Talk of Liverpool allowing Chelsea to win (so that United won’t overtake their haul of league titles) is absolutely ludicrous. For a start, the Reds are still in with an outside chance of finishing fourth, and whilst that chance is there, they’ll be going flat out for victory. Secondly, failure to qualify for the Champions League will mean that Liverpool need to finish in the top seven to qualify for the Europa League next season. A loss here and the door will be wide open for arch rivals Everton to overtake them next weekend (providing Everton beat Stoke on Saturday) – so you can rest assured Liverpool will do everything in their powers to prevent that from happening.

Whether Liverpool beat Chelsea is another matter, but what they won’t do is lose this game by choice, that’s for certain. In the Match Odds market Liverpool are available to back at 4.4, Chelsea are 1.9, and The Draw can be backed at 4.0.

I’m a complete neutral in the title race so I can say it as I see it and say it how I think it will end, rather than how I want it to end. If I had written this preview on Thursday I’d have been quite sweet on Liverpool not losing this game, but having seen Rafa Benitez’s team selection against Atletico Madrid now I’m not so sure. To say I was horrified is an understatement. Glen Johnson at left back, Javier Mascherano at right back, Steven Gerrard playing – what looked like at many times – behind Lucas and Alberto Aquilani. What was all that about?

I appreciate Benitez has a mass of injury problems in defence, but my philosophy would always be to play as few players out of position as possibly, not shuffle three or four players around just because you haven’t got a fit left-back.

What it all means is that Liverpool – who will have similar injury problems on Sunday – will struggle to get anything out of this game against a Chelsea side that are virtually back to full strength. Ricardo Carvalho is a doubt at the back whilst long-term absentees Michael Essien and Jose Bosingwa are out of contention. But John Terry will return after serving a suspension and will take his place in a Blues line-up that will feature an abundance of attacking ability.

Chelsea will be very difficult to break down, whilst at the other end they should create enough chances to get on the scoresheet once or twice. In the Correct Score market the 0-1 and 0-2 options are available to back at 8.8 and 11.0 respectively and these are the scorelines we should be looking to back. Obviously then, I’m quite keen on the chances of Under 2.5 Goals (2.06) as opposed to Over 2.5 Goals (1.92).

Chelsea have recorded 25 victories in the Premier League this season, and they’ve scored first half goals in 21 of those games. They’ve also been leading at half time in 10 of their last 11 league victories, so at 3.3 to back, Chelsea/Chelsea in the Half Time/Full Time market is my best bet of the game.

Didier Drogba did me a favour – rather fortuitously may I add – when I named him as my best bet selection to score against Man Utd a few weeks back, and I believe he is Chelsea’s most likely scorer again. That might appear quite obvious, but sometimes it’s so easy to overlook the obvious. Not this time though; back Drogba at around 2.4 in the To Score market is my advice.
Recommended Bets

• Best Bet: Back Chelsea/Chelsea @ 3.3 in the Half Time/Full Time market
• Back Didier Drogba To Score @ around 2.4
• Back 0-1 @ 8.8 and 0-2 @ 11.0 Correct Scores

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