Aston Villa v Birmingham: Betting Preview & Tips

Aston Villa v Birmingham

Birmingham have little to play for between now and the end of the season but Villa are chasing European football and Betfair’s Richard Walker expects a feisty second city derby at Villa Park on Sunday.

Aston Villa boss Martin O’Neill’s post-match celebrations in the week at Hull City weren’t the actions of a man who believes his team are simply seeing out the season.

I’d say that he reckons his side are a shorter shot than the outsider’s chance they’ve been given to claim the Premier League’s lucrative fourth spot. With Man City at Arsenal and Spurs at Man United this weekend, suddenly Villa could be level on points with Tottenham on fourth come Sunday night.

In their way on this quest are bitter second-city rivals Birmingham City. Man City exposed the fact the Blues are already on their close-season holiday when they took them for five recently.

However this is a local derby and therefore Alex McLeish knows his side can ill-afford anything like a ‘fulfilling a fixture’ approach to this one. Gabby Agbonlahor’s late winner was all that separated the sides at St. Andrew’s earlier this term – and I see Blues’ pride ensuring it’s just as close again this time round.

I’m very strong on a lack of goals in this one. McLeish is a shrewdie – and he’s locked horns with O’Neill countless times across the city of Glasgow. So while he might well know being able to raise his troops sufficiently to win is improbable, I think he’ll have his side sit deep and ask Villa to play the other way to their favoured counter-attacking style.

Therefore my best bet is to back Under 1.5 goals at 3.9. If you’re not feeling quite so brave, Under 2.5 goals priced around 1.95 makes cracking appeal to me too.

This could be a really niggly and nasty affair, actually. Birmingham have had a great season – with that fantastic unbeaten run in the middle of it – but are now seven without a win and have little to play for other than to mess up their arch enemy’s best-laid plans. It’s the sort of game during which I could see a red card being brandished by referee Chris Foy. Take this up at odds of reward around 4.0.

The match odds tell the story of the two sides’ recent form. City – no win in seven as I said – are out at 6.4, The Draw is 4.0 while the home team are 1.66 for victory. Given you never quite know which Villa’s going to show up, I reckon that’s a touch short.

If you’re looking at a home win, as I am, perhaps Draw/Villa, at 4.6 the correct score section second favourite, is the way to go to open up a little value to yourself. The market jolly here is the 2.7 about Villa/Villa but I can see the first half being a cagey affair with both teams making it their business not to over-commit.

These early kick-offs, 12 noon being just about the earliest on offer for televised fare, often take a while to come to the boil. And while I have no doubt this one will, my sense is it won’t be a hatful of goals that provide the watchable moments.

That’s why I can see a cheapish lay here in the shape of City’s top goalscorer Cameron Jerome. He has 10 in the league, but I can’t see him getting much change out of Richard Dunne and co. at Villa Park. Take the striker on by laying him to a 3.5 liability in the to score section, 8.2 for first goalscorer if you think Villa are certain to strike first.

The usual claret & blue protagonists make it very difficult to choose an outright candidate for a home team goalscorer. Agbonlahor and John Carew are both at 5.4 for the first goal, with Emile Heskey, James Milner and Ashley Young a couple of points behind. It’s a minefield, that, for a team like Villa.

Given my leaning towards a very low-scoring game, I’ve been eyeing up 1-0 to Villa as the main part of my split-stake correct score staking. It’s at 8.0, while the minority of my 80/20% split will be with 0-0, at 13.0 to support.

Lay fans might like the look of taking all-comers on about a 2-1 home win to a 10.5 liability. If you’re sure it’ll be a low-scoring affair, then Any Unquoted would be 8.8 to lay your bank against.

One-nil Villa, no goals for Jerome and a red card. Come on, it’s not much to ask is it?

Best Bets:

• Back Under 1.5 goals @ 3.9;
• Lay Jerome to score @ 3.5;
• Back a Sending-Off @ 4.0

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