Arsenal v Man City: Betting Preview & Tips

Arsenal don’t seem to have anything to play for, but Dan ‘The Betting Man’ Fitch thinks that professional pride is strong at the Emirates and they won’t make things easy for City.

Just a couple of weeks ago it seemed unlikely that Arsenal would be going into this match with little else to play for but pride. Yet consecutive defeats to Spurs and Wigan have completely derailed Arsenal’s title bid, though I don’t imagine that the Gunners will be demotivated against Manchester City.

Some pundits have speculated that Arsenal may not give their all, considering that it would help their rivals Spurs’ Champions League bid, but Arsene Wenger apparently tore a strip off his side after their collapse against Wigan and he will not want to contemplate another defeat.

So it could be that this is the worst possible time for Manchester City to have to travel to the Emirates. After all, when was the last time that Arsenal lost three league games in a row?

City are also looking to bounce back from defeat, having lost the Manchester derby in agonising fashion last weekend. Encouragingly, their recent away form has been good, having now gone five games without defeat, which includes a win over Chelsea.

Adding a touch of spice to the game is the fact that Emmanuel Adebayor will make his first return to the Emirates since moving to Manchester and he can expect a particularly frosty reception, following his antics during the game at Eastlands earlier this season.

When the goalscorer markets open on Betfair closer to kick off, expect Adebayor to be priced at around 7.5 to score first and 3.0 to net at any time, with Carlos Tevez also around the 7.5 mark and 3.2. For Arsenal, Robin Van Persie will lead the betting at around 5.5 and 2.5, with Nicklas Bendtner at 6.0 and 2.7.

City’s chances will surely be boosted by Arsenal’s injury list. It looks as if the game will come too soon for Andryi Arshavin to be fit, though Alex Song might return and faces a late fitness test. Manuel Almunia, Denilson, Cesc Fabregas, William Gallas and Thomas Vermaelen are all definitely out.

Roberto Mancini could welcome Micah Richards and former-Gunner Sylvinho back to his squad, but is still without Joleon Lescott.

The statistics don’t look good for City, as they have failed to record an away Premier League victory at Arsenal in 12 attempts and have lost the last four of these games.

You have to fancy them to score though, given Arsenal’s selection problems at the back. In the 2.5 goals market, overs is the big favourite at 1.75, with unders at 2.3. I really fancy that both teams will score, but with odds of just 1.55 for this occurrence, it’s not a bet that I can really recommend.

Arsenal are the favourites at 2.04, with the draw at 3.65 and Manchester City at 4.1. Both sides will be going for the win, but I tend to think that a diplomatic draw will be the final result and one that both parties will be reasonably happy with.

In the correct score markets, 1-1 at 8.4 and 2-2 at 16.0 are worth looking at, as is 2-1 to Arsenal at 9.6 and 2-1 to City at 14.0. The half time/full time markets could provide some good value, with Arsenal/draw at 16.0 and City/draw at 17.5.

With Adebayor liable to raise the temperature of the game, the bookings odds are worth a look. Currently the price for 9 points and above is 1.59, but I expect that to rise as the market gains more liquidity.

Keep an eye also on the result of the earlier game between Manchester United and Tottenham. Should Spurs pull off a shock win it will really put the pressure on City, who are currently 2.44 to finish in the top four.

Best Bets:

• Back the draw at 3.65.
• Back Tevez to score @ 3.2;
• Back 1-1 @ 8.4.

Selectabet Offers:

• Open an account at Bet365 and claim £100 in free bets
• Open an account at Betfair and claim £25 in free bets
• Open an account at Paddy Power and claim £25 in free bets