Spurs v Chelsea: Betting Preview & Tips

After the elation of a first league victory in more than a decade over their north London rivals, Tottenham must do it all again against Chelsea in Saturday’s evening kick-off. Betfair’s Jaymes Monte reports…

Chelsea’s midweek victory was a sombre affair in comparison with Tottenham’s, but winning games ugly is an important prerequisite for any Premier League title winner. A couple of legitimate penalty claims from Bolton could have seen the game end with a different outcome had they been successful, and would have blown the title race wide open once again. They weren’t and it didn’t.

Chelsea remain firmly strapped into the driving seat of the Premier League. A position which was strengthened further when Tottenham’s win over Arsenal effectively made it a two horse race, albeit a race in which Chelsea are cantering down the home straight a number of lengths in front of their market rival. To use another horseracing analogy; their only dangers are the fences ahead of them and there is no need for the jockey to look between his legs for the chasing pack.

The battle for fourth place is also boiling down to just two teams with Spurs and Manchester City gradually pulling away from Liverpool and Aston Villa in the last few weeks. Spurs have the more difficult run-in on paper with this game against Chelsea followed by a trip to Old Trafford, but City also have a trip to The Emirates followed by a home game against Villa, which means that May 5, when City play Spurs at Eastlands, is looking increasingly like D-day. City are 1.6 and Spurs 3.1 to finish the season in fourth place.

So, to the matter immediately at hand. Both teams come into this game high on confidence and playing good football, but I can’t help feeling that fatigue may play a major part in this game. It became backs to the wall stuff for Spurs in the last 25 minutes – not coincidental with the introduction of Robin van Persie – of their game against Arsenal and another high intensity game less than 72 hours later for their brittle squad might prove telling.

They also struggled with the directness which van Persie’s presence allowed Arsenal to play with, a tactic which Chelsea use as default. They can’t afford to allow Frank Lampard and Florent Malouda as much time on the ball in the final third of the pitch as they did Arsenal’s midfield. Whilst Nicklas Bendtner’s immobility meant there was rarely an outlet for Samir Nasri and Abou Diaby, Didier Drogba and/or Nicolas Anelka will be working the spaces tirelessly and pulling defenders out of position to create openings.

Odds of 1.95 on Chelsea taking all three points looks more than fair to me and I would suggest that as a good starting point for your betting on this fixture.

Thoughts of Chelsea playing Tottenham amid a title chasing run-in will always evoke memories of that epic 4-4 encounter in 2008. However, certainly in terms of goals, things have calmed down somewhat since then; an average of two goals per game have been scored in the three subsequent meetings between the two sides. And it looks like Betfair punters can’t make their mind up on which way this one will go with the under and over 2.5 selections hovering around the 2.0 mark.

Chelsea won the reverse of this fixture 3-0, but that was back in September amid completely different circumstances. A repeat of that score line is priced at 21.0, but a narrow 1-0 or 2-1 victory for the visitors looks more likely at odds of 8.6 and 9.2 respectively.

A Premier League winner’s medal is firmly within the grasp of Carlo Ancelotti in his first season in English football – don’t expect him to throw his into the crowd – and with a four point cushion they can even afford a slip-up along the way. However, I don’t expect it to come at White Hart Lane and the Chelsea juggernaut can go charging on.

Selectabet Offers:

• Open an account at Bet365 and claim £100 in free bets
• Open an account at Betfair and claim £25 in free bets
• Open an account at Paddy Power and claim £25 in free bets