West Ham v Wolves: Betting Preview & Tips

West Ham v Wolverhampton Wanderers

Tuesday’s live game on Sky is a relegation dogfight between struggling West Ham and Wolves. Betfair’s Dan ‘The Betting Man’ Fitch thinks that the Hammers are too short and worth opposing.

With eight league games to go and both sides just hovering outside the relegation zone, it’s fair to say that West Ham at home to Wolves qualifies as a ’six-pointer’.

As neither Burnley or Hull are in action during midweek, a victory for either West Ham or Wolves will see them gain some relative breathing space, while the loser will be left as a sitting target in 17th position.

Over the weekend both teams visited sides that they were expected to lose to, but only Wolves came away with any reward, following their spirited 2-2 draw at Aston Villa.

The Hammers spurned a penalty against ten-man Arsenal before eventually succumbing 2-0 and will be desperate to make amends. When you look at their remaining fixtures and consider that West Ham’s away trips will see them play Everton, Liverpool and Fulham, then it seems likely that West Ham must excel at Upton Park if they are to survive.

You would imagine this would have to involve getting Carlton Cole back in the starting line up. Gianfranco Zola has made the decision to name his top scorer on the bench in West Ham’s games against Chelsea and Arsenal. Cole might be struggling for full fitness, but surely this is the time for him to be unleashed from the start?

When the goalscorer markets open on Betfair closer to kick off, expect Cole to lead the betting at around 6.0 to score first and 2.5 to net at any time, with Alessandro Diamanti at 6.5 and 2.75. For Wolves, Kevin Doyle will be their favourite at around 9.0 and 3.6.

Scoring goals in the Premier League has been something that Wolves have struggled with this season, having notched just 25 in 30 games, which is the least of any side in the division.

Mick McCarthy’s side keep things very tight at home, but have unusually managed to score more goals when playing away. That said, in terms of the over/under 2.5 goals market, I still think that under 2.5 goals at 1.92 represents better value than the 2.06 available for overs, despite Wolves having scored two goals against both Burnley and Villa.

Scott Parker should return from injury for West Ham, while Mark Noble and Herita Ilunga are back in contention. Wolves have no injury problems and look set to name an unchanged side for the seventh successive match.

West Ham beat Wolves 2-0 at Molineux on the opening day of the season, but they won’t be meeting such a naïve team on this occasion. Wolves are well able to get men behind the ball and defend solidly, while playing on the break and I expect them to employ this tactic to frustrate West Ham.

West Ham are 1.83, with the draw at 3.7 and Wolves at 5.3. I think that is a very short price for a team that have lost their last four games, of which one of those defeats came at home to Bolton.

Therefore I’d recommend laying West Ham or backing the draw. You could also consider Wolves in the Asian Handicap at +0.5 and 1.0 at 1.85, which would see you would win if Wolves win or get a draw and only lose half your stake should West Ham only win by one goal.

In the correct score markets, 0-0 is 11.5, 1-1 is at 8.0, with 1-0 West Ham at 7.8 and 1-0 Wolves at 15.5. If any side were to win this, I think it will be by a narrow margin, so also consider the draw/West Ham at 5.2 and the draw/Wolves at 12.5.

• Recommended Bets: Lay West Ham @ 1.83; Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.92; Back Carlton Cole to score first @ 6.0.

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