Liverpool v Portsmouth: Betting Preview & Tips

Liverpool v Portsmouth

Liverpool play host to Portsmouth on Monday night and Betfair’s Dan ‘The Betting Man’ Fitch is expecting a narrow home victory, which might not be that easy on the eye.

Having lost successive games against Wigan and Lille, Liverpool will be under extreme pressure to pick up a win on Monday night.

For a team looking to reverse their poor form, there are few more welcoming sights in the fixture list than a home game against Portsmouth. Despite Liverpool’s current woes, it would be a major surprise if they did not claim a win against Pompey.

Avram Grant’s strugglers are rooted to the bottom of the table and seem to be saving their best performances for the FA Cup. However, their financial troubles seem to have created a fighting spirit within the team, which is something that Liverpool are lacking at the moment.

Fernando Torres for example, looked rather uninterested during Liverpool’s games this week and you suspect that he will be looking for pastures new should the team fail to finish within the top four.

Both Torres and Steven Gerrard have been linked to moves away from Anfield, but for now at least, they still represent the biggest threat to Portsmouth. Torres lead the betting to score first at 3.55 and is 1.74 to score at any time, with Gerrard priced at 5.5 and 2.2. For Portsmouth, Frederic Piquionne is available at 11.0 and 4.3.

It’s fair to say that goals have been generally scarce at Liverpool this season. Of their last 12 Premier League games, only once has the 2.5 goals barrier been breached. This suggests that the odds of 1.75 for over 2.5 goals, is a little short and that the value lies in the 2.28 available for unders.

You suspect that the reason the punters seem to fancy a convincing Liverpool win is because of the reputation of the sides and the fact that Rafa Benitez’s team have been reasonably consistent at home this season.

But this ignores the the fact that Portsmouth play with a lot of men behind the ball on their travels. They have scored less goals on the road than any other team, but have only conceded 25 away goals, with 8 other Premier League sides having let in more this season.

Liverpool’s defence are also quite tight at home, so I would be surprised if Portsmouth score. A home clean sheet can be backed at 1.9.

So while I expect Liverpool to win the game, I think that the victory will be a narrow one. A 1-0 Liverpool win can be backed at 8.0, with 2-0 at 6.8 and 2-1 at 10.5.

There are no major injury worries for Benitez ahead of Monday’s match. Aurelio and Skrtel are out, while Benayoun will is a doubt having picked up an ankle injury. For Portsmouth, Aaron Mokoena, Anthony Vanden Borre and Tommy Smith are all now back in contention after injury.

Liverpool are very short at just 1.29 to win the game, with the draw at 6.2 and Portsmouth at 14.0. With Liverpool in such unreliable form, such odds aren’t very tempting.

Better value can be found in the half time/full time market. Of their last 6 Premier League wins, Liverpool have been winning at half time in only 3 of them, so the odds of 4.7 for the draw/Liverpool are more appealing than those of 1.86 for Liverpool/Liverpool.

Liverpool are now 4 points behind fourth placed Spurs, having played the same number of games, but are still shorter at 3.55 than Tottenham’s 3.8 to finish in the top four.

All they can do I to win this game to put the pressure on Spurs, but this expectation creates a pressure of it’s own. I think that Liverpool will be up to the challenge, but don’t expect it to be all plain sailing.

• Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.28.
• Recommended Bets: Back a Liverpool clean sheet @ 1.9; Back the draw half time/Liverpool full time @ 4.7.

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