Reading v Aston Villa: Betting Preview

Reading v Aston Villa

There’s nowhere Betfair’s Richard Walker would rather be on Sunday lunch-time than the Madejski Stadium. But is he backing Martin O’Neill’s men to make it to Wembley again or can Reading’s run continue?

The tie of the round for me, I’d take getting involved in this one over the procession that’s likely to be Chelsea v Stoke later on this FA Cup Sunday afternoon.

Reading are the only non-Premier League side left in the competition. Ladies and gentleman, we are already past the stage where the top-flight sides pretend they don’t care too much about the cups. They all want to win this now.

While I can’t see the Royals – led by the amiable Brian McDermott – winning cup, I can see them at least landing a blow against a Villa side who have the quality to make this something of a no-contest.

I expect Martin O’Neill’s expansive, attack to exploit the wide open spaces of the Madejski Stadium. He has only centre-half pairing James Collins and Richard Dunne as injury doubts.

Collins and Dunne aren’t crucial to Villa’s counter-attacking approach but they are key to my chief selection – that an Aston Villa clean sheet should be backed. I expect a more cagey approach from Reading; a rigid formation to match Villa’s and a less carefree approach than Crystal Palace adopted in the last round. Also factor in the absence of Reading winger Jobi McAnuff, who caused Liverpool problems.

I fancy this tie won’t be brimming with goals and, at 2.66 to back, am suggesting Brad Friedel won’t be picking the ball out of his net at all. Yet far from suggesting a mauling, I’m simply stating that O’Neill’s men will have too much for what – let’s get it right – are average Championship fodder, in form as they are.

There are only four sides in their division with a worse defensive record than Reading. Their cup heroics can’t hide that fact and it’s one I expect Villa to exploit. I’m a little torn as regards the key goals market. Under 2.5 is priced around 1.93 with Overs at 2.02. This might be a section to get involved with in-play, after assessing the approach of both sides in the early minutes. I certainly don’t expect a feast of goals so lay Over 3.5 goals to a 3.9 liability. An early Villa strike would open things up, but they’re hardly going to then chase.

Quicksilver striker Gabriel Agbonhalor must have a part to play. His electric pace is going to be too much for the Reading back-line. For me, he’s a must include at 2.32 to score. At 5.7 for the first goal, you could do a lot worse.

If you were thinking of including a home team player, then Simon Church is probably your man, but I’d want to see at least 3.75 to score before getting involved. Shane Long 3.25, who’s back from suspension, and the lanky Pole Grzegorz Rasiak 3.3 are other options, although top scorer in the cup for Reading is Icelandic all-action midfielder Gylfi Sigurdsson. If there was to me a shock opening, his 13.0 to notch first represents good value since he has a genuine eye for goal.

The match odds, in my eyes, offer a chance for heavy stakers to wade into backing Villa at 1.89. Let’s not get carried away by cup fever here; the Villains are sixth in the Premier League having lost five all season, while Reading are 18th in the Championship with 14 defeats to their name. You might want to request nearer evens – someone in Betfairland might just be prepared to lay that.

Reading are a 4.7 shot while The Draw is 3.6. The odds for both suggest they’re unlikely scenarios. I agree. McDermott’s boys have had a great run – I fancy, though, still smarting from their Carling Cup defeat, Aston Villa will make no mistake at The Madejski.

Best Bets:

• Back Villa clean sheet @ 2.66;
• Lay Over 3.5 goals @ 3.9;
• Back Agbonlahor to score @ 2.32.

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