Aston Villa v Man Utd: Betfair Betting Preview

Aston Villa v Manchester United

Live on Sky Sports 1. Kick off 3pm.

This is a big match for both sides for very different reasons and it has all the makings of a good final but don’t expect too many surprises when it comes to who lifts the trophy, says Betfair’s Jamie Pacheco.

This may be the competition in which some teams give their reserves a run-around, youngsters are blooded and ticket prices are slashed in the early rounds but come the business end of proceedings, teams want to go on and win it. Remember this was the first silverware that Jose Mourinho won at Chelsea, just seven month into his reign. Since then Chelsea again, Man Utd twice and Spurs have lifted the trophy.

There are good reasons why both sides will be treating this final with the utmost respect. Aston Villa haven’t won a trophy in 13 years and haven’t been in any sort of final since Chelsea’s Roberto Di Matteo scored the only goal of the match in the last-ever final at the old Wembley back in May 2000. This isn’t just a day out for Villa fans and a chance to book a Europa League spot early doors, this is the biggest match Martin O’Neill has been involved in since the UEFA Cup final in 2003 where his Celtic team lost to Porto and the biggest match for Villa in a decade.

The same cannot be said of Sir Alex Ferguson or his Man Utd side of course. They play Cup finals with the same regularity that most people visit the dentist but there are two good reasons why Sir Alex Ferguson will be desperate to win this. In a few years time when he’s watching future finals from the comfort of his armchair he’ll want to list all the trophies he won during his time at Old Trafford and one more Carling Cup won’t do his record any harm. Secondly, 2004/5 was the last season United finished the season without a trophy and I’m sure Ferguson won’t want to see that happening again between now and when he retires. Having been knocked out of the FA Cup by Leeds, trailing a strong looking Chelsea in the league and facing a mammoth task to regain the Champions League title they last won in 2008, this could well be the only thing United win this year.

No chance then that the likes of Wayne Rooney will be rested for this one. Both teams will play their strongest possible line-up and I think it’s fitting that they do. Back in 2007 Arsene Wenger played the youngsters who had got him to the final against Jose Mourinho’s best-possible side and paid the price, but that was the exception to the rule.

The stats suggest there are plenty of reasons why Man United’s fans will be the ones celebrating on Sunday night but there are other reasons to suggest that’s the case. The first of which is the difference in terms of experience between the players on both sides. Man Utd’s players have gone through the pre-match preparations, atmosphere and pressure of a final time and again, which is more than you can say for Villa’s players. United would be just a little bigger than 1.78 to beat O’Neill’s side at Villa Park so that price about beating them at a neutral venue is a great one. Plus, the fact it’s a Cup final , if anything, makes it an even better price than it would if it were a straightforward league match as United are likely to handle the occasion better.

My idea of a scoreline would be 2-0 or 2-1 to Man United so respective odds of 9.8 and 9.4 about these two should be backed; given I’m split between these two scorelines it follows logically that I don’t have a huge opinion on the over/under 2.5 goals market so that one should perhaps be left alone.

The goalscoring form of Wayne Rooney can be interpreted in two ways. He’s either a must-bet to open the scoring at around 5.0 and to score at anytime at around evens, or the fact he’s so short-priced opens the door to other opportunities elsewhere on the first of the two markets as Rooney’s price causes others’ to go out. I’m in the latter camp and at odds of 11.0 Antonio Valencia and in particular Paul Scholes (20.0)look particularly over-priced.

This should be a good match, played in the right spirit and it’s good to see Villa playing in major finals once again but the trophy is likely to find its way to the overcrowded cabinet at Old Trafford rather than the slightly dusty one at Villa Park.

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