Wigan v Spurs: Betfair Betting Preview

Wigan Athletic v Tottenham Hotspur

Live on Sky Sports 1. Kick off 4pm

Burnley need points and fast, but Betfair’s Dan ‘The Betting Man’ Fitch doesn’t see any coming against an uncompromising Aston Villa side who don’t give anything away cheaply.

I know I’m stating the obvious but the Wigan players have either been dreading this day, or they’ve been looking forward to it since 5pm on Sunday 22nd November 2009. Why? Well of course the reverse of this fixture was an emphatic 9-1 victory for Tottenham, a scoreline that surely gives the Latics no chance of success today… or does it?

When you’ve had such a beating the easiest thing to do is forget it and move on. But I remember Crystal Palace losing 9-0 to the mighty Liverpool in the 1989/90 season. The two clubs were then drawn against each other in the FA Cup semi-final just a few months later, and obviously Liverpool were massive favourites to progress to the final. But Palace never forgot the mauling they suffered, which meant mentally they were completely prepared to face the Reds on semi-final day… and they duly won.

Now I haven’t got a clue how Roberto Martinez has approached this game, but if he’s got any sense at all he will have been reminding his players of that 9-1 defeat all week, reminding them of the embarrassment and hurt that result caused, and how the fans were completely let down. If Martinez has done that, and the message has got through, then Wigan can get something today. I’m a firm believer that mentality plays a huge part in football, sometimes more so than ability.

In the Match Odds market Wigan are available to back at 4.0, Tottenham are the 2.08 favourites, whilst The Draw can be backed at 3.5. I just wonder how much that reverse fixture has influenced the market this time.

From a form perspective it’s difficult to fancy Harry Redknapp’s men with much confidence. They’ve won just one of their last six league fixtures, and they’ve won just one away game since they beat Portsmouth at Fratton Park in October. During that time they failed to beat an out-of-sorts Everton side, drew with Fulham who were also out-of-form, drew with Birmingham and lost to lowly Wolves.

Having said that, Wigan haven’t exactly been firing on all cylinders either. They themselves have won just one of their last six league games, but they are unbeaten in three now and they have beaten Chelsea and drew with Man City at the DW Stadium this season.

Perhaps The Draw (3.5) is the bet then, though I wouldn’t put anyone off laying Tottenham at 2.1 if you want to cover a Wigan victory also.

Team news is thin on the ground as I write, but neither club have any fresh injury worries other than Titus Bramble possibly missing the game for the home side because of a hamstring injury. Tottenham have an FA Cup replay against Bolton in midweek and it has been reported that Ledley King might be rested today in favour of that game.

I’m definitely in the Under 2.5 Goals camp here – available to back at 1.8. Spurs have scored just one Premier League goal away from home in 360 minutes of football, whilst Wigan have averaged less than a goal a game on their own patch all season. Prior to that 9-1 scoreline, the previous three league meetings between these two averaged just one goal per game, so maybe Under 1.5 Goals (3.4) isn’t a bad shout either.

Interestingly, Spurs have trailed at half time on seven occasions this season, six of those games they went on to lose and the other one ended in a draw. This doesn’t bode well for in-running punters who think Spurs can come back from a first half deficit. However, I don’t have the luxury of giving selections during the game but given Tottenham’s poor ‘fight back’ record, Wigan/Wigan in the Half Time/Full Time market is definitely worth a wager at 8.0.

Finally, in the Correct Score market, 1-0 to the home side (13.0) and the 1-1 draw (7.4) appeal most. I’m splitting my stakes between both in a game where Wigan’s mentality can be strong enough to overcome Tottenham’s ability.

Best Bet:

• Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.8

Also;

• Back The Draw @ 3.5 in Match Odds market;
  
• Back Wigan/Wigan @ 8.0 in Half Time/Full Time market;
  
• Back 1-0 @ 13.0 and 1-1 @ 7.4 Correct Scores (split stakes)

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