Liverpool v Everton: Betting Preview

Premier League | selectabet | February 5, 2010 at 1:32 pm

Liverpool v Everton

Live on Sky Sports 1. Kick off Saturday 12.45pm

A weekend of derby football kicks off in this lunchtime match on Merseyside. But don’t expect it to be game lauded by the footballing purists.

Firstly, it’s a lunchtime kick-off. I don’t know what it is about these games but they just never really seem to spark into life. The are the antithesis of a bustling evening clash under the floodlights at any stadium up and down the country. Maybe it’s the deliberatly planned lack of booze-time ahead of the game that dulls the atmosphere, maybe it’s the out-of-kilter schedule that the players find so difficult to attune to or maybe it’s just not natural to be playing football at anytime other than mid afternoon and early evening. Whatever it is, the juices just don’t flow quite as freely at 12.45 on a Saturday.

Secondly, we have two sides who have ditched any notion of the beautiful game recently in order to turn their season around by grinding out results. Liverpool have taken 14 points from their last 18 but in those 6 games they’ve scored just 8 times and conceded once. Everton are only slightly more entertaining over the same period. Similarly they’ve racked up 14 points but have a goals for and against that reads 10-3.

Delving into the recent history of this fixture doesn’t exactly enthuse either. Just 12 goals have been scored in the last 8 meetings and only one of those has seen more than 2 goals scored in the game. Liverpool have enjoyed all the recent success in the fixture and you have to go back to 2006 to find the Toffees’ last victory over their city rivals. It’s over 10 years since they last recorded a win at Anfield. So are you surprised to see them at 7/2 (Boylesports, Expekt, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, William Hill) – well I had hoped they’d be slightly bigger.

See, I think they can get a result. Whilst Liverpool have been making a fist of getting their season somewhat back on track their performances have been far from convincing. Their climb back up the table has been built on wins against fellow Champions League contenders Aston Villa and Spurs as well as wins over Bolton and Wolves. But don’t forget that this the same Liverpool that crashed out the FA Cup to Reading, lost to the seemingly orphaned Portsmouth and scraped draws at Wolves and Stoke in recent weeks. They are still vulnerable and Everton have as good a chance as they’ve ever had to end that 10-year run without a win at Anfield. I’ll be avoiding the 9/10 (888 Sport, Blue Sq) on offer for the Reds win.

Everton are unbeaten in 9 and on a run that has seen them leave Stamford Bridge and the Emirates with well-deserved points. They’re slowly returning to form and a key man in recent weeks has been Tim Cahill. The little Aussie has scored 3 in his last 6 and incredibly his last 8 goals have all been scored with his head. Despite his size he’s a huge threat in the air and with Liverpool’s zonal marking being exposed so often this season he’ll cause them real concern at set-pieces and cross balls. Cahill is 9/1 (Bet365, Blue Sq, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes etc) to open the scoring and could be worth a few shekels. 7/2 (Paddy Power) on him to score at anytime also looks tempting.

Another stand-out stat in relation to this fixture is that there have been more red cards (17) in this fixture than in any other in the Premier League. There have been eight dismissals in the last 10 league meetings and it’s 11/4 (Expekt) on there bing one tomorrow.

But back to the match result. For me the value lies with Everton but not at just 7/2. Instead I’ve dug out odds of 11/4 (Boylesports) for an Everton win in the Draw No Bet Market. That is a brilliant price in my eyes and one that I’ll be snapping up before it’s gone.

Let me know how you think the game will go in the comments below.

Best Bets

Everton – Draw No Bet 11/4 (Boylesports)
Tim Cahill to score anytime 7/2 (Paddy Power)

Don’t forget I’m looking for some help to test out the soon-to-be-launched Selectabet Forum. You can discuss this and all the football and sporting action over there and there’s 10x£10 Free bets courtesy of Bet365 for the first 10 users to post 100 (meaningful) posts.