Australian Open: Heart says Murray, head says Nadal

Andy Murray (GBR) v Rafael Nadal (SPA)

Preview by Betfair’s Ben Caudell.

The Spanish Bull is getting back to his best and is the value bet in this humdinger of a quarter-final

The early morning (GMT) match between the world number two and world number four has understandably been given top billing in Melbourne Park, and is the only featured match in the evening session on the Rod Laver court.

Andy Murray happens to be the one player left in the men’s draw who is still to drop a set from his opening four matches. He takes on Rafael Nadal today for the tenth time trailing in the head-to-head series 9-2. The last time Murray defeated the Spaniard was back in February 2009 at the Rotterdam ATP tour event final. Having played only three Grand Slam ties against one another, Nadal leads 2-1.

Murray will take some confidence in the knowledge that he was triumphant in their US Open encounter back in 2008, that Nadal has relinquished his number one world ranking to Roger Federer and is still trying to claw back the form and ability he had shown before his French Open loss to Robin Soderling which also culminated in a lengthy period on the sidelines due to persistent knee problems.

Nadal struggled to find any kind of rhythm in the World Tour Championships’ at London’s 02 Arena, losing all three of his round robin matches but has since gone on to play the kind of tennis we associate with the Spanish Bull. He looks a lot fitter and more comfortable playing on the slower Australian outdoor hard courts and there will be pressure on him to defend a large proportion of ranking points having won the title last year. Nadal is the ultimate competitor and will fight until the very end.

The Spaniard is likely to grind Murray down over the course of the more likely scenario of four or five sets, if this match comes down to a battle of survival and the will to win than Nadal is the most likely victor.

Also, be aware that Murray has been experiencing back pains on his serve which could have a drastic affect on the outcome of this match. Get ready for a classic, my heart says Murray but my head says Nadal.

Selections:

• Back Rafael Nadal @ 2.14 to win match
• Back Over 39.5 @ 1.85
• Lay Three Sets @ 3.5

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