Australian Open Betting Preview

Will the winner of this year’s Australian Open be a former champion in the shape of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic or will we see a first-time winner? More importantly, which of the two options offers the best betting value, asks Betfair’s Simon Mundie.

This year’s Australian Open promises to be one of the most open in years, with more players having a shot at the title than since the early 2000’s. With that in mind, one market worth exploring is the ‘Men’s tournament- first time winner’. If you decided to bet yes at 1.9 (Betfair) that means you are backing any and all of the 125 players who have never previously won the tournament in the draw to take the title; whereas if you were to go the other way (2.0), you would be backing one of the ex-champions (Nadal, Djokovic or Federer) to go all the way once more. So the question is: which is the better choice?

It is difficult to bet against one of the world’s top two winning the title again, after all, they have won all but two of the last 19 Grand Slam tournaments between them. Federer alone has reached the last 22 Grand Slam semi-finals, a remarkable feat dating back over five years, and 17 of the last 18 finals, including all four in 2009. As for Nadal, he held three of the four Grand Slam titles this time last year before injury and Robin Soderling got in the way.

Federer rightly starts as favourite to win the Australian Open, but in truth he hasn’t been the best player on tour since prior to last year’s US Open. He last won a title in Cincinnati in August, and was beaten by someone other than Nadal in a Grand Slam at Flushing Meadows, which will have given many players on tour hope that they can do the same. He also failed to shine at the Masters Cup at the 02, and has lost his last two matches to Nikolay Davydenko, a player he had little trouble swatting aside in previous years.

As for Nadal, he hasn’t won a title since last May, and looks a shadow of the player he was 12 months ago. Most noticeable of course is his weight loss: previously the Spaniard was all rippling muscles whereas now he is significantly more streamlined. He has also admitted to confidence issues and doubting himself at crucial moments, as he did in the recent Doha final against Davydenko where he lost after squandering match points.

Djokovic certainly looked the best player on tour during the closing months of 2009, winning three titles after the US Open, including two Masters events. I deemed him to be favourite for the Australian Open after seeing how well he was playing on the indoor circuit; but then his Australian Open preparations took a dent when he was thrashed by Fernando Verdasco 6-1 6-2 at the Kooyang Classic in Melbourne this week. While it may only have been an exhibition event, that is still a worrying result for someone like him just days before a Grand Slam.

It’s clear, therefore, that there are question marks hanging over the title aspirations of all three former champions, but who else could realistically be expected to win?

Juan Martin Del Potro proved himself in winning the US Open, but his form dipped thereafter and he is currently suffering with a wrist injury. Andy Murray looks in good form despite his surprise loss to Tommy Robredo in the Hopman Cup and could become the new champion, although he disappointed in the majors in 2009 and there are those who believe his game isn’t suited to the best of five set format. Nikolay Davydenko, however, is one player the top three certainly won’t want to face; he is in the best form of his life, having won the Masters Cup and beaten both Federer and Nadal in consecutive tournaments; but has never reached a Slam final.

Andy Roddick has already won a title this season, and he reached the semi-finals of last year’s Open, while Fernando Verdasco, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Fernando Gonzalez, Robin Soderling and Marin Cilic could potentially go all the way with their power hitting. That makes nine possible winners outside the top three, although six of them would need to play the best tennis of their careers to win.

With that in mind then, my gut actually tells me that the better bet is to side with the former champions. They have the benefit of experience and the best draws, and while I think this will be the year when the balance of power shifts once again, the first month of the year may prove too early. Furthermore, I’m standing by my prediction that Djokovic will be the last man standing, despite that painful thrashing at the hands of Fernando Verdasco. It is, however, an extremely close run thing.

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