FA Cup Betting: Upsets on the cards

We haven’t had a shock FA Cup winner for a while but that’s not to say big upsets don’t continue to take place in the early rounds. Do your homework and you’ll find some cracking bets out there, says Betfair’s Andrew Atherley.

Conventional wisdom holds that FA Cup shocks are a thing of the past, with the romantic winners of the 1970s and 1980s a distant memory now that the big four clubs have come to dominate the competition.

But there are still upsets to be found at the third-round stage, when even the big teams can be caught out by the minnows. Last season Chelsea, at odds of 1.13, were held at home by Southend of League One, while in the past five seasons Manchester United have failed twice to beat non-league opposition at the first attempt in the third round. That kind of shock result is difficult to foresee, but more predictable is that struggling and out-of-form teams often get into trouble against lower-ranked opponents. One group for Betfair layers to go after in the third round are the bottom eight in the Premier League, who often fail to deliver at odds-on.

Last season, only three out of five such teams won at the first attempt in the third round, leaving layers with a net profit to a level-stake lay on all five teams. That was far from an isolated example: the previous season, all five odds-on teams from the Premier League bottom eight failed to win at the third-round stage.

In fact, layers would have been in profit opposing odds-on teams from the bottom eight in each of the past four seasons. On that basis, this weekend layers should be looking to oppose Wigan, who are 1.93 to lay at home to Hull, Wolves (1.94 to lay away to Tranmere), Bolton (1.28 to lay at home to Lincoln) and Portsmouth (1.74 to lay at home to Coventry).

Struggling teams from the Championship are prone to having problems at odds-on too, and the standout lay option in that category this year are Preston, who are 16th in the Championship and have just parted company with manager Alan Irvine. Preston are 1.94 to lay at home to Colchester, who are flying high in fourth place in League One.

Form matters in the FA Cup, and one group that usually performs well – and can include a team with the potential to go on a good run – is the top 12 from the Championship. Newcastle, 100.0 to back outright for the FA Cup, are the obvious pick from outside the Premier League and they have been handed a winnable tie at Plymouth, for which they are 1.89 to back.

In match betting, backers should be looking to get with the top 12 of the Championship against opponents from anywhere below halfway in the Championship. In that category, in the past 10 seasons, teams from the Championship top 12 have a home win rate of 70%, which equates to average odds of 1.43, and an away win rate of 52%, equivalent to 1.91.

Apart from Newcastle at Plymouth (22nd in the Championship), other matches that fall into that category this weekend are West Brom, away to Huddersfield of League One, Blackpool at home to Ipswich and Crystal Palace away to Sheffield Wednesday. West Brom are 2.3 to back, Blackpool are 2.26 and Palace are 2.78, and along with Newcastle they represent good value set against the average win odds for this type of match-up.

Most of the Championship teams that go on to reach the quarter-finals are paired with a lower-placed team at this stage, so West Brom, Blackpool and Palace – as well as Newcastle – have the potential to shorten significantly in the FA Cup Winner 2009/10 market.

West Brom enter the competition at 170.0 to back, Blackpool are 430.0 and Palace are 360.0

Reproduced with permission from betting.Betfair.com. © The Sporting Exchange Limited

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