Bolton v Lincoln (& Others): Betting Preview

Betfair’s Ian Lamont tells us why a managerless Bolton side might look vulnerable on paper but would require a better team than Lincoln to cause an upset. Plus the best bets from Accrington Stanley v Gillingham, Torquay v Brighton and Bournemouth v Northampton.

The key to FA Cup betting is to find a team that relishes the underdog tag, perhaps on a small budget but, as a compact unit, fancy themselves against all comers.

They are not easy to predict in the league, but are worth a punt in the cup. Accrington have been threatening glory in the past few years. They beat Huddersfield as a Conference side, then took Tranmere to a replay last year. The crowing glory is to draw a Premier League side, and they will regard a home match with Gillingham as their big chance to earn it.

The relief injected after surviving a winding up order in the autumn seems to have spawned form that gives them a chance. Five wins, interrupted by a Johnstone Paint Trophy defeat to Leeds, included one at Notts County, showing they do not fear reputations. A latest defeat, at home to Bury’s great away record, can be forgiven.

Home advantage is crucial in a tie like this, especially as Gillingham picked up only a second point of the season on their travels last Monday. Much of the Kent team is the same as that which won the League Two play-offs last season, so John Coleman will know all about them and how to go about defeating them.

Simeon Jackson is an obvious danger man, but Accrington have one the Gills didn’t face in their two victories over Stanley last season. Michael Symes has eight goals in 12 games since the hosts started their FA Cup campaign this season.

The visitors are worth laying at 2.78 with under 2.5 goals at 1.86 added in.

It doesn’t surprise me that the two Gulls sides are well matched for the clash at Plainmoor where Torquay, who have a stubborn streak with a spark of forward prowess thrown in, host Brighton. Anyone who took my last round advice to lay Torquay’s opponents Stockport would have been rewarded – eventually, if they remembered to replace the bet on all the dates the game was rearranged!

I reckon there could be more midweek action to come in this one, with the South Coast derby evening itself out at 3.4.

Torquay are a little in the Accrington mode – solid and capable of a result if they all concentrate as a unit. They have players capable of carving out openings, such as Chris Zebroski and Elliot Benyon, as well as the solid experience of Chris Hargreaves. The latter two started on the bench in defeat at Bournemouth. Expect them to start. Hargreaves will want to show he can lead the shackling of a reputed scorer like Nicky Forster.

Lincoln City, however, must be opposed, even if Bolton are reeling from the departure of manager Gary Megson. For many teams, facing a dispirited side might be the invitation they need to cause an upset. However, it is hard to see, with Lincoln having found it hard to score goals recently.

They recently went four league games without scoring a goal of their own and it is interesting that Michael Gordon, brought in to create chances, has found himself an unused substitute now they have started to score. He will be cup-tied, and the gulf Northwich found between them and the Imps in the last round will be repeated in reverse at the Reebok. Back the home side to win 2-0 or 3-0 at 7.0 or 9.0.

In the league, Northampton should have little reason to think they can gain anything from a trip to Bournemouth, where Brett Pitman is back among the goals.

Alright, Adebayo Akinfenwa will be looking to take his goal tally into double figures. Getting past Jason Pearce and co will be tricky, however.

They are a passionate lot down at Dean Court, who want to see them return to League One quickly after troubled times. Inspiring their team to victories in games like this is vital. Back at 1.85.

Recommendations

• Best bet: Bournemouth to beat Northampton at 1.85
• Back Bolton to beat Lincoln at 2-0 7.0 and 3-0 9.0
• Back Torquay to draw with Brighton at 3.4
• Lay Gillingham at 2.78 at Accrington

Reproduced with permission from betting.Betfair.com. © The Sporting Exchange Limited

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