Portsmouth v Arsenal: Betting Preview

Portsmouth v Arsenal

Live on Sky Sports 1. Kick off 7.45pm

At first glance an in-form Arsenal side who comprehensively beat the impressive Aston Villa last time out should have little difficulty in disposing of a Portsmouth side who are odds-on for the drop. But Betfair’s Richard Walker isn’t so sure…

3-0 winners against Aston Villa, playing the bottom club, all roads lead to an Arsenal victory, right? Don’t be quite so sure.

They have statistics and history on their side for sure, undefeated as they are against hosts Portsmouth in over 50 years. But, shorn of Sunday’s hero Cesc Fabregas with a hamstring injury re-occurrence, and without Robin van Persie, Nicklas Bendtner and others, perhaps Arsenal don’t look quite the good thing they should.

Fair to say, reflecting on that 3-0 win over Aston Villa, that the visitors to the Emirates looked reasonably comfortable before Fabregas burst onto the scene. The Gunners’ play was largely in front of Villa’s back four.

And despite the disappointment of defeat at West Ham on Boxing Day, Pompey have won three of their last four home games – the most recent of which against a Liverpool side which, more so than Arsenal albeit, does also rely on their most talented one or two players to see them through.

So I’ve made my case and I’m going to go with it. Lay Arsenal to 1.57 is where I’m heading, with an insurance policy of backing Any Unquoted 7.4 in the correct score list if it all goes horribly against the plan and the Gunners get one or even two up early doors. Portsmouth are a juicy 7.0 in the match odds market completed by 4.4 about The Draw.

Avram Grant’s team, with only keeper David James an injury doubt, have no option but to chase all three points. It’s for that reason I’m not committing to a home team victory. They will inevitably leave some exploitable areas of the field, but Fratton’s Park modest-sized pitch should be in their favour for this one, just like Arsenal sometimes had trouble generating sufficient space on the narrow Highbury turf of yesteryear.

Mentioning individual personnel earlier, it left me wondering quite how much Arsenal can rely on Andriy Arshavin to provide both the creativity and the all-important goals. Look around the other options and you’re talking about the hardly-prolific Eduardo, then the likes of Theo Walcott and Carlos Vela.

Arshavin will probably be about 5.0 for first goalscorer, and that’s a much a reflection of the fact that if favourites Arsenal are to notch, there are few other feasible options. The aforementioned Walcott (around 12.0), Eduardo 6.0 and Vela 8.0 are among other options to consider for the visitors, while in-form Pompey forward Frederic Piquionne might look a nice price at something like 9.0 to back.

My goalscoring plays will be to lay Eduardo and also back Piquionne in the to score section if I can get about 4.0 or better. Putting to one side the winners of the game, I think his good form should be respected. Aruna Dindane 9.0 and ex-Gunner Kanu 11.0 are also first goalscorer possibles for the hosts, looking to make their mark before jetting off to the African Cup of Nations.

I’m undecided on the total number of goals in this one. I called the Hull-Man Utd game right days ago, but this I’m finding a little trickier. Bettors would appear to be equally unsure; it’s 2.06 to back Under 2.5 goals, just a decimal point longer than the Overs option.

I suppose, since I also think Portsmouth will score, I ought to side with Overs. But I’m struggling to do so as 1-1 is a score which particularly appeals in the correct score market. It’s a little under what I was expecting, at 9.2 to back. You can get 7.8 about the old favourite “One nil to the Ar-senal”, or 14.0 for 3-0 to the Gunners if you think they’ll have it more their own way than I do.

I shall be laying an Arsenal clean sheet to a 2.28 liability confident that, at enough points in the game, Grant’s men will force themselves forward effectively enough.

This is the last Premier League match of 2009. Let’s hope it sets the tone for a cracking 2010. Happy New Year to you all.

Best Bets

• Lay Arsenal @ 1.57
• Back Piquionne to score @ at least 4.00
• Lay Arsenal clean sheet @ 2.28

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