Aston Villa v Liverpool: Betting Preview

Aston Villa v Liverpool

Live on Sky Sports 1. Kick off 7.45pm

Aston Villa play their second game in just over 48 hours against one of the Premier League’s Big Four teams and Betfair’s “Mystical” Mike Norman believes Liverpool will find it difficult to break Martin O’Neill’s men down.

Although he won’t admit it publicly, I doubt very much that the Premier League fixture generator was top of Martin O’Neill’s Christmas card list this holiday season. Following an away trip to highflyers Arsenal, Villa now host Liverpool just two days later whilst the Reds have enjoyed an extra day to recover from playing at home to lowly Wolves.

O’Neill is also likely to be hurting after his side’s top four finish aspirations received a rude awakening at the hands of the Gunners on Sunday, and his task now is to lift his players for the visit of Liverpool.

In the Match Odds market, Villa are available to back at 2.94 with Liverpool at 2.66 and The Draw available at 3.4. Ahead of the game, Aston Villa can be backed at 4.0 in the Top 4 Finish market whilst Liverpool are the more fancied at 3.1.

Villa will be without the suspended Ashley Young after the winger received his fifth yellow card of the season on Sunday. Stewart Downing is likely to deputise in the left midfield position with James Milner moving to the right. Emile Heskey is once again rated a doubt (though he did start against Arsenal) and could be replaced by John Carew in attack. For Liverpool, Dirk Kuyt is expected to return after being rested on Boxing Day but Javier Mascherano is still suspended – Alberto Aquilani will retain his place in the starting line-up.

I pointed out Aston Villa’s dreadful record at the Emirates Stadium ahead of the Arsenal game and I’m afraid they have an equally poor record at home to Liverpool in recent years. O’Neill’s men have failed to beat the Reds at Villa Park every season since 1998, though significantly perhaps, four of those encounters have ended 0-0.

And it’s that 0-0 scoreline that I’m going to base my wagers around today. Villa have a terrific defensive record this season thanks partly to the exceptional Richard Dunne, and although eventually beaten 3-0 on Sunday, they defended well for the first 60 minutes or so. Liverpool, and Steven Gerrard in particular, have been largely disappointing so far this term and I think they will struggle to make the breakthrough against a Villa side desperate to avoid back-to-back defeats.

In the Correct Score market, 0-0 is available to back at 11.0 and is my recommendation along with a saver on 1-0 to Villa (10.0). Not surprisingly, Under 2.5 Goals (1.84) is another of my selections though I wouldn’t put anyone off backing Under 1.5 Goals at 3.6.

In a game that I envisage having few clear cut chances it’s difficult to be confident about making a selection in the First Goalscorer and To Score markets. Not surprisingly the likes of Fernando Torres (6.4 FG, 3.0 TS), Gabby Agbonlahor (7.0 FG, 3.2 TS) and Steven Gerrard (7.8 FG, 3.6 TS) head those markets, but the player I gave a good mention to earlier – Richard Dunne – is my tentative selection.

Dunne will advance forward for all Villa’s corners and attacking free-kicks, so at 32.0 (First Goalscorer) and 14.0 (To Score) I’m counting on him to get me my New Year’s drinking money.

Recommended Bets

• Back Under 1.5 Goals @ 3.6
• Back 0-0 @ 11.0 and 1-0 @ 10.0 in Correct Score market
• Back Richard Dunne @ 32.0 in First Goalscorer market
• Back Richard Dunne @ 14.0 in To Score market

Reproduced with permission from betting.Betfair.com. © The Sporting Exchange Limited

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