Premier League Betting Preview: 28th December

As 2010 draws to a close Betfair’s Jaymes Monte takes in a combination of statistics and logic to pick out his best bets for Monday’s 3pm kick-offs.

Blackburn 2.22 v Sunderland 3.85; The Draw 3.4

Blackburn are now seven games without a win and Sunderland have gone six fixtures without a victory, Rovers have lost just one home game all season and Steve Bruce’s men have won just once on their travels. Those statistics look ominous for Sunderland fans and backers but I have to say that the draw at 3.4 looks the most logical play.

The statistics for goals in games involving these two sides this season also point to a particularly drab affair. Only 44 per cent of Blackburn home games have produced more than two goals and it’s the same percentage figure for Sunderland’s away games. The 1.8 available on Under 2.5 goals fits those stats perfectly, although not a huge value bet it does look a sensible play.

Chelsea 1.44 v Fulham 9.4; The Draw 4.8

There were real concerns at the beginning of this season over Fulham’s ability to cope with a European campaign running alongside their Premier League ambitions. The thoughts were that one or the other would suffer, but Roy Hodgson has once again underlined his credentials as a top quality manager.

Fulham are now unbeaten in eight games in all competitions and having beat Man United last week must fancy their chances of taking something off a Chelsea side who have now won just once in their last seven. 1.44 on the home side looks way too short and the 2.2 on Chelsea to be leading at half time and full time also looks to be worth taking on in the HT/FT market.

Five of the last six Stamford Bridge meetings between the sides have ended with three goals or more which makes ‘Over 2.5 goals’ at 1.9 a desirable option to back.

Everton 1.65 v Burnley 6.6; The Draw 4.0

One point on their travels has kept the pressure on Burnley’s home form, although they have dealt with those pressures amicably eight games without a win means they are only three points above the drop line. A run of four consecutive league draws have breathed life into Everton’s lacklustre start to their season, but seven games without a win mean I couldn’t be backing them either at 1.65.

Altogether I would stay clear of the Match Odds-related markets completely, the goals-related markets provide a much more interesting approach. Not one of the Boxing Day matches produced more than two goals, and these two sides were both involved in 1-1 draws. That same score line can be backed here at 8.8 but given Everton’s lack of prowess in front of goal it is the Under 2.5 goals at 1.92 which looks to be the standout bet of the day to me.

Stoke 2.52 v Birmingham 3.15; The Draw 3.35

This one has potential to be an extremely intriguing encounter; little needs to be said here about either Stoke’s Premier League home form or Birmingham’s recent surge up the table. Both are topics of close scrutiny across the many media mediums.

The draw would obviously suit both trends and at 3.35 it looks to be a decent starting point when looking for a bet in this game. The 0-0 draw between the sides at the beginning of this season also adds to the confidence in those backing a stalemate.

It often happens that when everything points to a low scoring affair we end up with a goal-fest, or vice-versa. But 1.7 on ‘Under 2.5 goals’ and correct scores of 0-0 at 9.8, 0-1 at 9.8 and 1-0 at 8.8 should not be ignored.

Best Bet:

• Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.9 in Everton v Burnley

Also:

• Back The Draw @ 3.4 in Blackburn v Sunderland;
• Lay Chelsea HT/Chelsea FT @ 2.2;
• Back The Draw @ 3.35 in Stoke v Birmingham

Reproduced with permission from betting.Betfair.com. © The Sporting Exchange Limited

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