Wolves v Burnley: Betting Preview

Wolves v Burnley
Live on Sky Sports 1. Kick off 1.30pm

Managers must live and die by their decisions and Mick McCarthy made a huge one at Old Trafford in midweek. Betfair’s Jaymes Monte looks at a game which could now make or break Wolves’ season.

The moment Mick McCarthy decided to field a weakened side at Old Trafford in midweek this game took on a much greater significance than it otherwise would have. If Wolves take all three points then he will have justified his decision, but if they fail to win then he might have more than just the Premier League committee to answer to.

As the chant of ‘we want our money back’ echoed around Old Trafford from the pocket of Wolves fans McCarthy will have realised that the Burnley game is now a must win. The decision to change his 10 outfield players may have just backfired on him as the pressure on those returning to the side has now been ratcheted up to 11.

Burnley however, have still only picked up one point on their travels and although their home form has stood up to the test so far they will need to get some results on their travels if they are to survive this season. A lack of success on the road will in time gradually increase the pressure on their home games and that cannot be a good thing.

Owen Coyle doesn’t have any fresh injury concerns ahead of the game and can be expected to field a similar side to the one that earned a point against Arsenal in midweek.

The only player who McCarthy won’t be able to recall from the win over Tottenham last Saturday is midfielder David Edwards who will be out for up to ten weeks with an ankle injury sustained during that game.

Given Burnley’s away from throughout this season it won’t come as a surprise to see Wolves as the 2.14 favourites in the Match Odds market. Burnley are 4.0 to get their first away win of the season whilst the draw is available at 3.5.

Although it is understandable to see Wolves as favourites, I don’t think the price offers enough respect to The Clarets. They have shown glimpses over the past few weeks that they are getting aspects of their game right when away from Turf Moor. In their last away game at Portsmouth they looked solid for the first 50-60 minutes and in their two away games prior to that they scored three times in each – against West Ham and Man City.

If they can piece all the positives together at Molineux this weekend – easier said than done – then they could add to that solitary notch in their away points column. ‘Burnley +0 & +0.5′ in the Asian Handicap market at around 2.18 looks to be a good way to approach this one.

The Over/Under 2.5 goals market is a very tough one to read from the past statistics of this season. Whilst only 38% of Wolves home games have produced three goals or more, Burnley away games have ended with Over 2.5 goals 75% of the time. Given that Over 2.5 can be backed at 2.12 I would have to side with that if my hand were forced but I advise small stakes whichever way you approach this market.

One area which has been particularly profitable for me this season is the corners markets. 1.5 on Wolves to win the Corners Match Bet may not seem particularly appealing at first but when you see that Man United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City are the only teams to have won more corners than Wolves this season it starts to look an attractive option.

One other area of note is Burnley’s prominence in the fair play league; they are fifth in the standings and have picked up 24 yellow cards compared to Wolves’ 32 this season. A lay of Burnley at 2.1 in the Bookings Match Bet market also makes sense given those statistics.

The consequences of this game could stretch a lot further than the points won or lost and I am sure that the final whistle won’t signal the end of it all. It’s all set up for an intriguing contest for the neutrals and one both managers will feel they can, or maybe must, win.

• Best Bet: Back Burnley +0&+0.5 @ 2.18

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