Portsmouth v Liverpool: Betting Preview

Portsmouth v Liverpool

Live on Sky Sports 1. Kick off: Saturday 12.45pm

It’s a vital game for both sides as Portsmouth play host to Liverpool. Betfair’s Dan ‘The Betting Man’ Fitch is backing the visitors to do a rare thing and win a second game in a row.

Rafa Benitez has guaranteed Liverpool fans that they will finish in the top four, which means that they need to turn around their current form and fast.

That would mean winning at the likes of Portsmouth, who still sit adrift at the bottom of the Premier League.

If it were Arsenal, or even Villa, that were travelling to Fratton Park right now to face Pompey, then you’d expect nothing but an away win. With Liverpool though, there is the distinct feeling that anything could happen, which is why people can be forgiven for not sharing Benitez’s optimism.

Liverpool’s last 10 Premier League games have brought three wins, three draws and four losses. They won against Wigan on Wednesday night and must now attempt to win a second successive game for the first time since they defeated Bolton, Burnley, West Ham and Hull on the spin, early on in the season.

They face a Portsmouth side who have had some encouraging results under their new manager Avram Grant. After an initial baptism of fire that saw Pompey get spanked by Manchester United, they then beat Burnley, gained an away draw at Sunderland and then on Wednesday came within minutes of taking another point away from Stamford Bridge.

In truth, the majority of Portsmouth’s defeats this season have been narrow ones, which suggests that there is hope in Grant’s quest to retain Portsmouth’s Premier League status.

Against Liverpool, Portsmouth will be boosted by the return of Younes Kaboul to their defence, after he returns from suspension. Liverpool will surely be tempted to restore Fernando Torres to their starting side, after he came off the bench to score against Wigan.

When the goalscorer markets open on Betfair closer to kick off, you can expect Torres to lead the betting at around 5.0 to score first and 2.25 to score anytime. Gerrard should be around 6.0 and 2.7, with Ngog at 8.0 and 3.1. For Portsmouth, Dindane will be the favourite at 10.0 and 4.0.

Last year’s corresponding fixture was a great game in which Liverpool came from 2-1 down to ultimately win 3-2, with goals from Kuyt and Torres in the last few minutes. Prior to that, Liverpool had not won at Fratton Park for a couple of seasons, having drawn in 07/08 and lost 06/07. It should be remembered though that Portsmouth’s team has gradually eroded in quality during this period.

Of the last six games between the sides at Fratton Park, five have broken the 2.5 goals mark. Under 2.5 goals is the favourite though at 1.91, with overs at 2.04. Considering that clean sheets are few and far between for both sides, the overs should be worth backing from a trading perspective alone.

Portsmouth are 6.2 to win, with the draw at 4.2 and Liverpool the 1.63 favourites. I fancy a narrow Liverpool win but given their current form, I wouldn’t recommended backing them at such a slender price.

There is better value of course in the correct score market. 1-0 to Liverpool is 7.4, 2-0 is 7.8 and 2-1 is at 9.0. The draw at half-time/Liverpool full-time is 4.8, with Liverpool/Liverpool at 2.7.

You can back both teams to score at 1.92 and Liverpool are an interesting price at 2.68 to score in both halves.

This promises to be an enthralling game between two sides that need all the points for very different reasons. All the pressure though will be on Liverpool and whether or not they can deliver here, will tell us a lot about the authenticity of Rafa Benitez’s guarantees.

Recommended Bets:

• Back Liverpool to score in both halves @ 2.68
• Back 2-1 to Liverpool @ 9.0
• Back Torres to score first @ 5.0

Reproduced with permission from betting.Betfair.com. © The Sporting Exchange Limited

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