Serie A: Weekend Betting Preview

After last weekend’s Rome Derby and the Derby D’Italia, there are less glamorous matches on offer this weekend but no less opportunities to make money, says Betfair’s Dave Farrar.

CAGLIARI v NAPOLI

Both of these sides can be frustrating, and yet I can’t help but feel that the 2.44 available about Cagliari to send Napoli back from Sardinia with a bloody nose represents a bit of value.

Cagliari were in great form going into their game at Palermo at the weekend and when they led early on, it looked as if they were on their way to their sixth win in eight games. They had numerous chances to score a second goal but didn’t take them, and eventually a roaring fightback from one of the best home sides in the division gave Palermo the win.

I wouldn’t let that put you off backing Cagliari though. Andrea Cossu is one of the best creative players in Serie A at the moment, and with Alessandro Matri having scored in his last six games, Cagliari will certainly test what can be a rickety Napoli rearguard. Even though Walter Mazzari has worked miracles in turning the visitors around, they still don’t convince, and with Cagliari having won their last four games in Sardinia, the home team look a solid investment here.

• RECOMMENDATION: Back CAGLIARI to beat NAPOLI @ 2.44

PARMA v BOLOGNA

After the derbies of Italy and Rome last weekend, it’s a rather less famous game which provides interest this Sunday. Parma’s surprising season continued last week with a dramatic 2-2 draw at Genoa, and they start this match in the unlikely position of fourth in the table.

That’s testament to the coaching genius of Francesco Guidolin, who has proved once again that he is one of the most underrated technicians around. Parma have been pretty solid at home, but Bologna’s style is nearly always to attack when they are on the road. They were boosted massively last week by a home win against Udinese, and that was the 8th game out of their last 9 which has produced over 2.5 goals.

Much of the pre match attention will be focused on Marco Di Vaio, who had such a fantastic career at Parma, and so he will be especially motivated to do well here. Parma don’t score bucketfuls of goals at home, but I think that Bologna’s open style, rather like Genoa’s last week, will draw them out and it could end up being a mini classic. Given the game which is likely to develop, over 2.5 goals is overpriced.

• RECOMMENDATION: Over 2.5 Goals in PARMA v BOLOGNA @ 2.18

BARI v JUVENTUS

It’s been a curious week in the lives of Juventus fans. First, they beat Inter and ignite the title race and then they produce an insipid performance and lose to Bayern Munich to go out of the Champions League.

They face a tough challenge in Bari on Saturday night, with Bari’s solid defence and passionate home fans standing in their way. Bari have conceded only 3 goals at home all season, but there have been signs in recent weeks that their famous rearguard is starting to shake.

They went behind against Chievo and did very well to come back and win, and then they twice led in Naples, before conceding three goals. I just wonder if the injuries which have hit their squad throughout the season are really starting to affect them, and whether they may be about to slide.

The Juve players were honest and open about their defeat by Bayern, and will want to put it right straightaway now that the League is the only title in which they are interested. And Tuesday night was more about the brilliance of Bayern than it was to do with Juve’s well known deficiencies. To be brutal, Ciro Ferrara got a lesson from Louis Van Gaal. But Bari are not Bayern, and their solid well organised style will suit Juve. It was pace which undid them in the Champions League, and Bari don’t have a great deal of that. I think that the odds against price which is being offered for Juve to win is a massive overreaction to that midweek defeat, and I fully expect Juve to stop Tuesday night’s drama from turning into a full blown crisis.

• RECOMMENDATION: Back JUVENTUS to beat BARI @ 2.04

Reproduced with permission from betting.Betfair.com. © The Sporting Exchange Limited

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