Portsmouth v Burnley: Betting Preview

Portsmouth v Burnley

Betfair’s Dan ‘The Betting Man’ Fitch thinks that despite their league position, Burnley should view this as a relegation clash, as they look to reverse their poor away form against struggling Portsmouth.

Is it too early to be labelling this match a six-pointer?

Though it might be a little premature to be talking about relegation battles, especially in the case of Burnley who currently sit fairly comfortably in mid-table, no one would be surprised if they and Portsmouth were battling against the drop come May.

Burnley have adapted well to the rigours of the Premier League, but their successes this season have all come at home. Away from Turf Moor they have only picked up a solitary point and have conceded more goals than any other team.

Last weekend they conceded five against a West Ham side that are hardly renowned for their goal-scoring prowess. It all points to them playing far too openly. Playing an attractive brand of passing football is commendable, but it won’t necessarily keep you in the Premier League.

Rock bottom Portsmouth will be looking to take advantage of Burnley’s away day difficulties and pick up their first win under their new manager Avram Grant. To do so, they must overcome their own poor form at home. Portsmouth have won only once at Fratton Park this season.

Considering the off-field problems that Pompey have suffered and the sale of so many of their recent FA Cup winning team, then some would say that they have done well to pick up the 7 points that they currently have.

It was always going to be a hard task for Portsmouth to stay out of the relegation zone, when so many members of their squad were assembled on transfer deadline day.

Avram Grant was commended for coming within a penalty shoot out of winning the Champions League for Chelsea, but if he keeps Portsmouth up, it would rank as far more of an achievement than conquering Europe with a squad full of quality internationals.

Throw in the fact that the Portsmouth players have not been paid this month and it’s clear that Grant has an incredibly hard task ahead. They do at least have a nearly, fully fit squad. David James will miss out, but Steve Finnan should return.

For Burnley, Steven Caldwell is suspended following his sending off against West Ham, while David Nugent cannot play against the parent club from which he is on loan.

Burnley’s Robbie Blake has been quoted as saying that Burnley will continue to attack teams away from home, despite the fact that they have conceded at least two goals in every one of their away trips this season.

Such a statistic makes the 1.95 for over 2.5 goals look very attractive. You can get 1.74 for both teams to score and I also like the look of the likely price of around 13.0 for Kevin-Prince Boateng to score first, considering that he’s Pompey’s joint top scorer in the league and is their penalty taker.

Portsmouth are the 1.94 favourites, with the draw at 3.65 and Burley at 4.6. I fancy a narrow Portsmouth win, but I’m not sure that they should really be odds-on against any team. Even at home to Burnley.

The odds of Portsmouth winning at half time/full time are 3.2, while the draw/Portsmouth is 5.2. For those that fancy a stalemate, then Portsmouth/draw at 18.0 and Burnley/draw at 21.0 may be of interest.

In the correct score market, a 2-1 win is 9.6, with 2-2 at 18.5 and 3-1 at 17.0.

I expect a good, open match here, between two sides who have every reason to fear relegation. Portsmouth are not quite yet adrift at the bottom, but they will be soon, if they do not win games like this.

Recommended Bets:

• Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.95
• Back Portsmouth @ 1.94
• Back Kevin Prince Boateng to score first @ 13.0

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