Aston Villa v Spurs: Betting Preview

Aston Villa v Spurs
Live on ESPN. Kick off 5.30pm

Wigan may have been humbled by Spurs but a win at Villa Park is a completely different test. Betfair’s Richard Walker previews this battle of the Champions League hopefuls

Let’s not get carried away with Tottenham’s demolition derby job on Wigan last weekend.

Sure, it proves they’re in fine fettle and that all seems hale and hearty down at the Lane, but they come up against an Aston Villa side itching to continue some home form which, an early-season blip (ironically against the Latics) aside, has been almost perfect.

They’ve beaten Fulham, Portsmouth and Bolton – as any aspiring fourth-place hopeful should – but also recorded a maximum return from the visit of Chelsea and drew 1-1 with the enigmatic Manchester City.

Buoyed by the likely return from injury of Stewart Downing (he could make his home debut), Martin O’Neill has few other injury concerns. Only James Collins remains a doubt, with Carlos Cuellar a ready stand-in.

It would be a surprise if Harry Redknapp makes too many changes to the starting XI which humiliated Roberto Martinez’s side last weekend. Luka Modric is crawling slowly back to fitness, but won’t be ready, while a late fitness test is hardly new territory for defensive talisman Ledley King.

Tottenham have three wins on the road – at Hull, West Ham and Portsmouth – but I don’t necessarily see them adding to that tally here. It’s really quite difficult this one, despite Villa’s relatively modest recent form they still look a good thing on their own patch.

So it’s lay Spurs for me to a 3.1 (Betfair) liability, with just a tinge of regret that I don’t feel brave enough to back The Draw at 3.5 (Betfair). Villa’s stand-out home form means it’s no surprise they’re the match odds favourites at a price of 2.54 (Betfair).

Factoring in teams’ form is difficult at the best of times, however an individual coming off the back of a five-goal spree – and with a liking for scoring against Villa – should be seriously considered in your goalscorer staking. I’m talking about Jermain Defoe of course, most likely around 6.5 to be first goalscorer. I make an anytime scorer the play, but make sure you get something like 2.75 (Betfair) before indulging.

That might seem a bit contrary since I’ve suggested a lay of the visitors. Not so if you then factor in the likelihood of a fair few goals. Backing Over 2.5 goals at 1.83 (Betfair) seems the way to go here; O’Neill has been stressing all week the need to go out and believe in a victory – and surely Redknapp will be happy to let the adrenaline keep flowing forth from last weekend. Unders is 2.18 (Betfair) to support if you disagree.

The correct score market needs a closer eye for this one, particularly if you share my view about the volume of goals. I don’t see 9-1 listed right now (!) but you can cover that and any scoreline with a four or above in it by getting involved with the 9.6 about Any Unquoted.

I feel something a mite more conservative is the order of the day. Two apiece 16.5 (Betfair) makes most appeal, with the covers of 2-1 to Villa 10.5 (Betfair) and the 30.0 (Betfair) around 3-2 to the hosts reflecting my feel it won’t be Spurs’ day. Whites’ fans might wish to avail of 1-0 or 2-0 to Tottenham, 13.0 (Betfair) and 20.0 (Betfair)chances respectively, while the section favourite is 1-1 at 7.4 (Betfair). I think there simply has to be more goals than that, doesn’t there?

They say the balance of power is just starting to shift in the English Premier League, that the ‘Big Four’ are about to broken apart. Both of these clubs would have you believe it is them about to take a Champions League spot. Both managers are too shrewd to openly say it, but this game will tell us a lot about who really retains the potential to kick on.

Recommendations

• Best Bets: Lay Spurs @ 3.1
• Back Jermain Defoe To Score @ at least 2.75
• Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.83

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