Ireland v France: Betting Preview & Tips

Republic of Ireland v France
Live on Sky Sports 1. Kick off 8pm.

Those suggesting the game between Giovanni Trapattoni’s men and les Bleus will end all-square in Dublin on Saturday night may turn out to be right, writes Betfair’s James Eastham – but the game may be more open than many observers have predicted.

Reports at the start of the week implied the France players were running scared of the Irish, but a gradual sense of confidence has come over the French camp as this game has drawn closer.

Patrice Evra, Yoann Gourcuff and others have hinted at a burgeoning self-belief in les Bleus’ ranks, which is why I don’t expect them to lose in Dublin on Saturday night.

The draw at 3.2 (Betfair) is the best bet on the outcome of the game, as the French would settle for a point before the return leg at Stade de France next Wednesday and Giovanni Trapattoni’s men are stalemate specialists: six of their 10 Group Eight games ended all-square.

The Republic are [3.3 Betfair] to win on the night, with France [2.54 Betfair]], but only the loss of a vital player would persuade me to side with either team.

A lot of pundits are predicting a low-scoring encounter, but I’m not so sure. I understand why 0-0 (8.0 Betfair) and 1-1 (7.0 Betfair]) draws are many people’s preferred correct-scoreline selections, but the make-up of the two sides suggests this game may be more open than you’d expect a first leg to be.

Franck Ribery is missing, but France still have a broad base of attacking talent: Thierry Henry has been exceptional for his country over the past couple of months, and Nicolas Anelka’s performance against Serbia in September was his best display in a France shirt for years. Real Madrid striker Karim Benzema has a point to prove after putting a spat with coach Raymond Domenech behind him, Gourcuff is one of Europe’s best playmakers and Andre-Pierre Gignac has dispelled doubts about his ability to excel at this level by scoring four goals in his eight France appearances.

France should score, but will struggle to keep a clean sheet. The failure of Philippe Mexes to mature into a defender of international standard since Euro 2008 has left a huge hole alongside William Gallas, and none of the three contenders for the second centre-half spot in this game – Eric Abidal, Julien Escude and Sebastien Squillaci – inspires confidence. France failed to keep a single clean sheet in six qualifiers against Serbia, Austria and Romania, which is why both teams to score is my strongest selection at [2.06].

Robbie Keane will attract plenty of attention in the anytime goalscorer market at a price of [3.25 Betfair], because he was the Republic of Ireland’s leading scorer with five goals from 10 qualifiers, but Gignac is slightly more appealing at [3.6 Betfair]. The Toulouse striker was Ligue 1’s 2008-09 top scorer with 24 goals, and his price seems to be based on the fact he plays for an inauspicious club rather than on his form, temperament or the physical strength that will make him such a dangerous player against robust opponents. Even if Gignac starts on the bench, he’s worth a small investment.

Best bet:

• Both teams to score @ 2.06.

Recommended bets:

• Republic of Ireland v France draw @ 3.2
• Both teams to score @ 2.06
• Andre-Pierre Gignac to score anytime @ 3.6

Reproduced with permission from betting.Betfair.com. © The Sporting Exchange Limited

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