Haye v Valuev: Betting Preview

Boxing | Betfair | November 1, 2009 at 9:11 pm

Valuev is almost a whole foot and six stones heavier than Haye but the Brit posesses the nous and the speed to floor the giant Russian.

It’s one of the most awaited boxing matches in a long time: brain against brawn, David against Goliath, Britain against Russia. Betfair’s Alex Steedman knows who the better boxer is but that’s not to say this fight is a foregone conclusion.

He’s got a big punch, a big mouth and on Saturday night David Haye will square up to a very big man. But to beat the giant Russian WBA Heavyweight Champion Nicolay Valuev, Haye might have to call upon something he has largely been short on; Patience.

As talented a boxer as he is, the truth is that throughout his career, David Haye has always been able to summon the heavy artillery when required to settle arguments. All but one of his 22 opponents has fallen by ‘Hayemaker.’ But it’s not a given that a 7 foot, 22 stones behemoth will tumble when the bombs are flying. Haye is as yet a freshman among the big boys and curiously, a Lilliputian next to the Eastern European Giants. Brain over brawn might be the way forward in this brave new world.

Let’s say straight off the bat that in terms of ability, Haye is a 1/10 (1.1 Betfair) shot here. But how do you solve a very big problem like Nicolay Valuev? The Russian will stand nearly a foot above Haye and will outweigh the Englishman by around 100lbs or 6 stones; as if he’s fighting with a particularly acid- tongued supermodel on his shoulders. His size is his strength; awkward to get at, overbearing when on the attack and he combines that with more competent technique than he is given credit for.

Valuev has been good enough to expose fringe contenders like Monte Barrett and Owen Beck but is limited by his narrow margin struggles over effective spoiler John Ruiz and last time out against a very much past-it Evander Holyfield. Floyd Mayweather he is not, but difficult to beat he is. Only Ruslan Chagaev has bettered Valuev in a career that has taken in 51 bouts in 10 different countries. And the key to Chagaev’s success was a disciplined, thoughtful, hit and move policy that left the decision beyond doubt. Question is, does David Haye have the required patience and will he need it?

In terms of discipline and strategy, Haye – alongside mentor/manager Adam Booth – has it in him. His performance in the pit of Levallois to snatch two world titles from the formidable Jean Marc Mormeck was almost perfect. The between round communications between Haye and Booth were revealing, close to being surgically detached: Punch out-put. Check. Fight tempo. Check. Pick it up. Check. Knockout. Check.

But Haye’s visit to the canvas in the 4th round meant the much discussed issues of chin and stamina, key issues in this fight, surfaced once again. My own feeling is that long term travails with weight compounded by a bingo blow to the top of the head explain that knockdown. Haye never really looked in trouble.

But it amazes me that he is still largely defined by his sole defeat to Carl Thompson 5 years ago. Get out the DVD or click up Youtube, it’s a great watch but note the number of punches the exuberant young Haye throws. It is like watching a ferocious Bantamweight scrap – no wonder he ran out of steam on what was only his 11th pro outing and his first attempt at 12 rounds. Get over it people. Haye throws a fraction of the punches now but with considerably more accuracy and power.

I’m not sure either that Valuev has the necessary athleticism to test Haye’s stamina anyway. Yes, he cuts off portions of the ring but it isn’t exactly educated pressure and I have the feeling that the ‘Hayemaker’ will feel as though he’s part of the matrix; slow punches breezing past his not-there- anymore jaw. The problem for Haye is getting inside that 7″ reach advantage to hit what is a far from elusive target and being disciplined when those opportunities arise. Essentially, Haye has to stop being himself for large portions of this fight: reckless and destructive might not work; clinical and powerful ought to be enough.

And yet the statement possibility of toppling the supposedly unstoppable and upstaging the ultra cautious division No1 Wladimir Klitschko, must surely be somewhere in Haye’s mind. It is a thought so close to instinct for Haye that it goes against everything within him to resist. To Knockout Valuev would be something and there will be opportunities but Haye could easily win this fight just boxing. I actually think it could be embarrassing. Valuev’s only hope is that he wears the Englishman down or that Haye blows himself out through knockout exertions.

Were it not for the element of size weighing on our minds, Haye would indeed be the biggest bet of the year so far.

VERDICT: HAYE TO WIN @ 1.7 (Betfair)