Chance to Cash In on Non-Scoring Minnows

International footy is on the menu this midweek again so it’s a chance to have a go at making some cash on backing the minnows to get thumped again.

The plan is simple. Back those teams that are out of their depth to get beaten without scoring. There’s a few games that fill the bill tomorrow night, it’s then hopefully just all about how many the opposition will score.

Unfortunately the bookies seem to have woken up to the fact that the likes of San Marino, Andorra, Malta and Luxembourg rarely score and the odds on them getting beaten by a few are getting shorter each time. But never mind, here’s a run down of some of the best chances for tomorrow night.

Portugal

In group 1 it’s a must-win game for the Portuguese who have Sweden snapping at their heels for a 2nd place finish. But fortunately for Carlos Quieroz’s men they’re up against non-scoring Malta and they’re at home. That’s all good news for us as they’re likely to rack up a few goals without conceding. But how many will they score?

The Portuguese have had a lack-lustre campaign but hit a bit of form at the weekend to see off challengers Hungary by 3 goals to nil. But they’ll be without Ronaldo tomorrow night as he’s picked up an ankle injury. That shouldn’t blunt their attacking options too much however and they’ll be expecting to finish the group on a high by at least equalling the 4-0 win they managed in Ta’Qali in September.

In fact the last 5 meetings between these two, dating back to 1991 have seen Portugal win 4-0 (A), 4-0 (H), 1-0 (A), 5-0 (H) and 1-0 (A). In the qualifying campaign so far Malta have lost 4-0 twice, 3-0 four times, 1-0 twice and managed a 0-0 draw with Albania so they may not get an absolute hammering.

Taking all that into account I’m going to go with the 3-0, 4-0 and 5-0 spread.

Greece

In Athens Greece play host to an improving Luxembourg side in a game that the home side must win to ensure second place in the group. On paper that should be no problem and when you consider that Luxembourg have failed to score in their last 6 matches it looks likely that a clean sheet for the Greeks could be on the cards.

In 7 previous meetings Greece have won them all, scoring 15 and conceding just 1 in the process. However their biggest win was just a 3-0 victory in September last year so it may not be that high-scoring tomorrow night.

Unlike Malta it seems Luxembourg do know their way to goal though. Most impressively they notched a 2-1 win in Switzerland earlier in the campaign, as well as scoring at home in a 1-3 reverse to Israel and securing a couple of points with two 0-0 draws against bottom of the group Moldova.

Greece have also been prone to losing goals in the campaign. They’ve shipped 5 at home in the last 3 group games and even lost one away to Moldova in a 1-1 draw. It all makes me slightly less confident about adding this one to the bet. If pushed it’d be a 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 spread for me.

Ukraine

Up against minnows Andorra, it would be a major surprise if Ukraine emerged with anything less than 3 points and 2nd place in the group from tomorrow night’s match. But can they win to nil?

Probably. Andorra have scored 3 in qualifying but they came against fellow strugglers Belarus (2) and Kazakhstan. When they’ve come up against the top 3 teams in the group they’ve gone down 5-0, 6-0, 2-0, 4-0 & 2-0, although notably those 2-0 defeats to England and Croatia were both at home so there’s reason to believe that Ukraine won’t be rattling them in tomorrow.

In the head-to-head it’s 11-0 on aggregate with Ukraine winning 4-0 and 5-0 at home and significantly winning just 2-0 on their only visit to Andorra.

Three points are the most important thing for the Ukrainians and so I’m going with the spread of 2-0, 3-0 & 4-0 in this one.

Slovenia

San Marino: Played 9. Lost 9. Scored 1. Conceded 44. Points 0. Visitors Slovenia will be delighted to have their last game of the campaign against lowly San Marino.

Group 3 potentially has the most riding on it as Slovenia must win to ensure a Play Off place but could also top the Group if Slovakia fail to win in Poland. Both sides’ goal difference is level on +11 so the number of goals that Slovenia win by has no real bearing on how the final standings will look.

Slovenia have one of the best defensive records in all the European qualifying groups having lost just 4 in 9 so a clean sheet against San Marino is almost guaranteed. Again it comes down to how many they’ll score. San Marino’s average goals against has been 4.88 per game and that reflects the 5-0 defeat that Slovenia inflicted on them when the two sides met for the first time in August.

Away from home San Marino are a shambles having lost 4-0, 10-0, 7-0, 5-0 and 7-0. At home they’re a bit tighter but not much better, losing 2-0, 3-1, 3-0 & 3-0. It makes this one a bit tricky to call. There’s a lot riding on this for Slovenia so it could be a bit more nervy than usual, however if it’s the benevolent San Marino that turn up it could be another high scoring affair. Taking 3-0 as the minimum I expect Slovenia to win by I’m going with 3-0, 4-0 and 5-0.

So that’s the options for the correct scores tomorrow night and here’s my final picks;

• Portugal 3-0, 4-0, 5-0
• Ukraine 2-0, 3-0, 4-0
• Slovenia 3-0, 4-0, 5-0

Remember it’s 27 bets (3×3x3) to cover all potential scores and hopefully one treble will come up trumps. Fingers crossed and good luck.

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