World Cup Betting: Back Minnows to get Mauled

World Cup qualifications often mean complete mismatches when the big guns take on teams that quite honestly couldn’t hold their own in the Screwfix Masters. This midweek is no exception with the like of San Marino, Malta, Liechtenstien and Azerbaijan coming up against Czech Repubic, Sweden, Finland and Germany respectively but it could mean some serious betting opportunities for us punters.

Czech Republic v San Marino

Take San Marino for example; they’ve won just won competitive game in their entire footballing history and have managed just 3 goals in their last two qualifying campaigns so far. In Euro 2008 qualifying they lost 57 goals in 12 matches and they’re well on their way to matching that tally in this campaign. In their last 10 competitive away matches they’ve lost 57 without reply – it’s safe to say that they’re unlikely to find the net against Czech Republic. With that in mind it’s all about how many the Czechs will score. In an Marino’s 4 away games in this group they’ve lost 5-0, 7-0, 10-0 and 4-0 – an average scoreline of 6.5-0. When the two teams met in their Euro 2008 group the Czech’s won 3-0 in San Marino ( a feat the repeated this time round) and 7-0 in Prague. That looks the most likely result tomorrow afternoon.

7-0 is available at 10/1 with Bet365 and I’d advise covering that with the 6-0 (13/2 Bet365, Coral, William Hill) and the 8-0 (16/1 Bet365) scorelines.

Germany v Azerbaijan

The Germans play host to a stubborn Azerbaijan side in a game that they must win. There’ll be no question of Germany taking their foot off the gas with Russia breathing down their necks in Group 4. Azerbaijan are by no means the same kind of whipping boys as San Marino but they don’t seem to have much of a knack in front of goal either. Their strike against Finland on Saturday was their first in 6 games and their first in the campaign. Again, it’d be a bit of a surprise if they breached the German defence so another clean sheet is on the cards.

I wouldn’t expect a glut of goals for the germans though. Azerbaijan have proven a tough nut to crack. 4 of their 6 defeats have been by a single goal, the other two by 2 to nil – one of which was to Germany. With home advantage I can see the home side scoring anywhere between 2 and 4 so I’ll be covering 2-0 (11/2 Bet365, Boylesports), 3-0 (9/2 Bet365, Boylesports) and 4-0 (5/1 Bet365, Boylesports).

Malta v Sweden

The Maltese have yet to score in their group and face a Sweden side who desperately need the win to keep their hopes alive. Malta’s three home games have seen them lose 1-0, 3-0 and 4-0, so Sweden will be expected to win to nil in this one. But the Swedes have been shy in front of goal, scoring just 8 goals in 7 so don’t expect a goalfest here. Going by those averages a 1 or 2 goal win for Sweden looks most likely and unsurprisingly offer the shortest odds at the bookies.

I’ll be backing 1-0 (8/1 Bet365), 2-0 (5/1 Bet365) and 3-0 (11/2 Bet365, Betfred) in this one in the hope that Ibrahimovic an co don’t go mad in front of goal.

So those are my 3 best picks for tomorrow’s games. I like to perm the trebles, which is 27 bets. At worst it’s a 246.5/1 treble with Bet365, at best it’s a 993.5/1 treble with the same firm and definitely worth a small investment.

Post your perms, trebles or tips for tomorrows games in the comments below.

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