Survival Sunday: Who’ll Avoid the drop?

Betting | selectabet | May 23, 2009 at 7:58 pm

It all started back in August, 9 months later and it’s now down to 4 teams and 90 minutes to decide who remains a Premier League team for season 2009/10. Middlesbrough, Newcastle, Hull and Sunderland all go into the final game of the season with the very real prospect of dropping into the second tier of English football.

But how do the bookies see it? Let’s start at the bottom and work our way up.

Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough are unsurprisingly the clear favourites to go down at an unbackable 1/50 (Expekt) but somehow are 16/1 (Bet365, Betfred, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Stan James) shots to stay up. Don’t you just love bookies? Gareth Southgate’s side are even listed as 7/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes) chances to finish on a real downer by ending up bottom of the table. In order for that to happen, of course, West Brom would need to win at Blackburn, whilst Boro did no more than earn a draw at West Ham. Boro need a hugely unlikely set of results to unfold to avoid the trap door. Don’t waste your money on backing them to survive.

Newcastle

The Geordies must have thought they’d done enough after their victory over Boro two weeks ago, but a defeat to Fulham put them almost back at square one. Now their destiny is out of their own hands and they must hope that Man Utd and Chelsea can do them a favour. The Toon face a tricky trip to Villa and must get at least a point if they’re to survive.

The bookies still rate them as likely to be relegated, the best price available being 3/5 with Canbet and Expekt. To avoid the drop they’re 6/4 (SkyBet) chances and that could be worth a look.

The way Villa have been playing means that it’s not the worst place that Alan Shearer could be taking his side. When the chips are down you’d want a man like Shearer to rally the troops and I think he can get something from the game. A win would be great but even a draw would do if Hull lose to Man Utd.

Hull City

The old cliche goes that it’s a game of two halves, but for Hull it’s been like a tale of two seasons. They’ve been in freefall since the new year and won fewer points at home than any other team in the league so visit from the champions isn’t the fixture you’re looking for on the final day to preserve your Premier League status. But who knows what United side will pitch up at the KC Stadium ahead of their Champions League final on Wednesday?

The bookies Rate Phil Brown’s side at 1/2 (Boylesports, Coral, Ldbrokes, SkyBet) to stay up – obviously they think it’ll be Man Utd’s under 13’s that’ll take the field and for Hull to return back to the Championship 13/8 is widely available. I certainly don’t think a win for Hull tomorrow is foregone conclusion so would be more likely to take the value bet on them going down.

Sunderland

The Black Cats would need to be really unlucky to be relegated tomorrow. Not only would they have to lose to Chelsea (very possible) but they’d also need Hull to beat United and Newcastle to win at Villa. It’s no wonder the bookies rate them 8/1 (Bet365, Coral, VCBet, William Hill) outsiders for relegation.

The truth is it probably won’t matter whether Sunderland win tomorrow or not as I can’t both Hull and the Toon winning. Unfortunately at 1/10 (Paddy Power) to stay up they’re too short to be parting with any serious cash.

Summary

Middlesbrough look beyond help but are not worth backing. Sunderland are more or less safe and if you’ve bags of cash get stuck into the 1/10 (Paddy Power). So that just leaves Newcastle or Hull. Despite concerns over Man United’s team I think Newcastle have the more winnable game so I’ll be having a wee punt on Alan Shearer to work his magic and secure survival for the Toon at 6/4 (SkyBet).