Tennis: Australian Open 2009 Betting Preview

With the 2009 Australian Open under way I thought I’d take a look at the movers and shakers of the Men’s competition to see who’s the most likely to pick up the trophy in two weeks time.

After a fantastic start to the season all eyes will be on Andy Murray, especially after he was installed as favourite to win the tournament by many fearful bookies. But can odds of 5/2 (He’s available at 3/1 – Ladbrokes, Sportingbet) really be justified for the Scot to win his first grand slam event?

There’s no doubt he’s in with a chance, he’s begun the season like a train, sweeping to victory in Abu Dhabi and Doha and leaving Roddick, Nadal and Federer (twice) in his wake. He’s 31-3 since his ill-fated Olympic bid and he looks as strong mentally and physically as he’s ever been. The Melbourne courts will suit him too and it’s often been the graveyard of former Champs.

In the draw he’ll cruise through the first few rounds before probably coming up against Stepanek and then meeting last year’s runner-up, Tsonga, in the quarters. Win that one and it’s probably a straight shoot-out against Nadal before meeting either Federer of Djokovic. So if he is to win he’s going to have to do it the hard way. There’s no reason why he can’t but at odds of 3/1 it might be better to wait and see how the tournament progresses before making our move.

Top seed Rafael Nadal is actually only 3rd in the betting and that’s a reflection on how he struggles on hardcourts in general. He’s gone out rather timidly in the past and with the likes of Gasquet, Monfils and Simon lying in wait he’ll do well to make that semi final against Murray. 4/1 (Bet365, Bet Direct, Blue Sq, Ladbrokes, Stan James, Totesport, VCBet) is probably the biggest price you’ll get on him to win any of the grand slams this season but even at those odds he just isn’t worth the risk on this surface.

Keep an eye on the form of Gasquet and Simon as there might be value in opposing Rafa later in the tournament.

Defending champion Novak Djokovic has probably the most favourable draw of the Big Four. If he can match the form that saw him announce his arrival on the world stage at this time last year then he’s set for a semi-final clash with Roger Federer. His only real dangers in week one are Roddick and Nalbandian but he should be too powerful for Roddick and too clever for Naldbandian. His form hasn’t been great in the past few weeks but if he can ease himself into the tourney we could see him making another final appearance.

At 8/1 (Ladbrokes, Sportingbet) he’s the value bet of the top four and he’d even be worth a punt each way at 1/2 odds paying for the first two places.

For once, Federer finds himself with a point to prove. Two recent defeats to Murray and a non-appearance in his only grand slam final in the last 14 here at Melbourne last year means that the Swiss master has to put exaggerated reports of his demise firmly to bed.

He’s put in the work to get himself in tip-top condition for this one and like Djokovic, shouldn’t be troubled by any of his opponents until he meets the big Serb in the Semis. The bookies rightly make him favourite at 5/2 (Ladbrokes) but there is a feeling of a new era emerging in men’s world tennis and Federer is going to find titles harder and harder to come by. He’ll have his work cut out to win in Australia but with the great man you can never rule him out.

From the top half of the draw I again like the look of Jo Wilfried Tsonga. I’ve been watching this guy for a while now and was delighted to see him master the Melbourne court last year and reach the final. He’s failed to kick on from that performance though and seems to be plagued by more injuries than even Andy Murray. But on his day the young Frenchman can be a match for anyone. His first real test will be against Murray in the Quarters but if he can get past that then he’s already proven to be more than a match for the likes of Nadal. He’s worth watching at a generous 40/1 with Centrebet.

Elsewhere Juan Martin Del Potro could continue his meteoric rise up the rankings and spring a surprise in this, his most suited event. It’s difficult to gauge his previous form in Australian given that he’s retired in his last two ‘defeats’ here but the hardcourt is definitely his preference and he’ll push Federer all the way when they meet in the Quarters. Again, he’s worth watching and can be backed at 33/1 with Ladbrokes or Sportingbet.

And finally, don’t rule out Marat Safin causing an upset or two either. The Russian managed to win here in 2005 after being runner-up twice in the 3 years previous. This is likely to be his touring swansong but 150/1 (Bet365, Blue Sq, Centrebet, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, SkyBet) seems to be on the generous side.

Let me know who you think will win in the comments below.

Selectabet Offers:

• Open an account at Bet365 and claim £100 in free bets
• Open an account at Betfair and claim £25 in free bets
• Open an account at Paddy Power and claim £25 in free bets