World Cup Qualifying Betting Preview

If you’ve read this blog before you’ll know I’m no fan of International weekends – give me cub football any day of the week rather than the inevitable mismatches and shock results of World Cup qualifying. Some games aren’t worth betting on and others are just too risky without any kind of notion of form to go on.

But last time round I thought I’d cracked it! If it wasn’t for an 86th minute, 6th goal for Germany in Liechtenstein I’d have cleaned up. I had bet Germany to win 3-0, 4-0 or 5-0 alongside England to win in Andorra by 2-0, 3-0 or 4-0 and Portugal to beat Malta 3-0, 4-0 or 5-0. OK, so it doesn’t take a genius to pick out those results but after coming so close the last time I’m going to try it again.

First things first – find fixtures where the favourites are unlikely to lose a goal. And then decide just how many goals they’ll win by;

Pick 1 : England

Despite Kazakhstan’s 3-0 win over Andorra and them managing to find the net in a 3-1 defeat at home to Ukraine, there’ll be a serious inquest if England don’t keep a clean sheet at Wembley on Saturday. So they’ll be the first of the 3 teams I’ll be backing. After netting 4 in Croatia, England will be expected to rattle in a few at the other end too. I wasn’t surprised to see them only win 2-0 in Andorra but I can see them winning more comfortably in this one. So I’ll be going for the spread of 3-0, 4-0 and 5-0.

Pick 2: Denmark

Malta have yet to score in their opening two games and it’d be a surprise if they opened their account against Denmark on Saturday. The Danes are in a tough group and recorded an excellent 3-2 away in Portugal last time round. They won’t want all that hard work to have been undone by dropping anything to the Maltese. Not renowned for their goalscoring exploits, Denmark will be happy with a comfortable three points and I think I’ll go with a similar spread to the England game; 3-0, 4-0 and 5-0.

Pick 3: Wales

The final pick is a tricky one, I’m tempted by Spain in Estonia and Belgium at home to Armenia but I’m going to go with Wales against Liechtenstein. The chances of Wales making South Africa in 2010 are fairly remote but if they’re to take anything out of the qualifying campaign they need to win these kind of games. Like England they’ll be looking to do so without losing a goal whilst netting a few in the process but they’re not as free-scoring as they’d like to be and I’ll be going for a slightly lower spread on this one of 2-0, 3-0 and 4-0.

So onto the bet; to cover all bases it’s 27 bets. That’s 3 x 3 x 3 – you need to get a correct score in each of the games to win. Not every bookie takes this kind of bet online so it’s worth checking out before trying to place your bet. If you really want to maximise your potential earnings it’s advisable taking the time to put each of the 27 bets on individually – this can make a real difference to what you can win but you’ll probably need several accounts to get the best return.

The best odds available at the moment are;

• England 3-0 – 11/2 (VCBet)
• England 4-0 – 13/2 (888 Sport)
• England 5-0 – 17/2 (BetUK, Sportingbet)
• Denmark 3-0 – 11/2 (Totesport, VCBet)
• Denmark 4-0 – 13/2 (888 Sport, Blue Sq)
• Denmark 5-0 – 9/1 (BetUK, Sportingbet)
• Wales 2-0 – 11/2 (Boylesports, Ladbrokes)
• Wales 3-0 – 13/2 (Boylesports)
• Wales 4-0 – 10/1 (888 Sport, Blue Sq)

Let me know what you’ll be betting on this weekend or if you’ve any other interesting betting systems.

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