The £20,000 Challenge

“This time next year Rodney, we’ll be millionaires!”

Well maybe not millionaires but the plan is to be 20 grand richer by the end of season 2008/09. Armed with £200, a betting system, a staking plan, some discipline and a generous helping of good luck the challenge is under way. And here’s how I’m gonna do it;

The Staking Plan

Right, I’m starting off with £200. No more. No Less. It’s an amount I’m comfortable with and if it all goes tits up then all I’ve lost is couple of hundred notes. Based on my projections, I reckon that starting with £200 means I should hit the £20,000 mark by bet number 48.

Each bet stake will be half of the current balance. So my first bet will be £100. If it loses my balance will be £100 and my next bet stake will be £50 and so on. It’s a high risk staking plan but if I’m not confident about a bet I won’t put it on.

I’ll always be checking the odds comparison sites too to make sure I get the best odds available. I don’t care where I place my bet as long as I’m getting the best possible price.

How successful do I need to be?

Even I’m realistic enough to know that no matter how good your system is, you’re never going to win every bet. Therefore I’m planning a 75% success rate – that’s me allowing myself one loss for every 3 wins.

That doesn’t sound too bad so long as the odds as decent. There’s no point if the winning odds are on the short side. Which leads me on to my preferred betting markets.

The Markets

OK, I’ve learned the hard way about which markets are worth betting on which aren’t. My mate Matt, over at Punt.com, trades tennis. It’s a sport where there can only be two outcomes. Automically this makes it much easier to pick a winner because the draw has been eliminated. The odds often aren’t as attractive but who cares, a win is a win.

In the football context I’ll be looking at markets other than the home-draw-away one. My personal favourite is the Over/Under market where you can bet on there being over or under 2.5 goals in any given game.

Another is the Asian Handicap market. In this market teams can be given a start over the other side or start with a handicap. This effectively eliminates the draw which is exactly what I want. Similalry the Draw No Bet market also provides a wee bit more insurance.

On such markets, I’m basing my average odds at being around 4/5 – hence why £20k should be reachable in under 50 bets.

There may be other markets and opportunities that present themselves over the season but there’ll be no daft bets on First Goalscorer or Correct Scores.

The System

Now that would be telling. I’ve got a ratings system that I use to suggest some potential bets. Each one is then sense-checked via stats sites, news sites, fans forums and blogs. I’d also like some help from you guys out there. If there’s any inside info or tips you’ve got feel free to let me know.

So there it is. The challenge that lies ahead. Feel free to come along for the ride with your own starting balance and staking plan. I’ll always try to post my bets before the game kicks-off but sometimes I like to leave my bets right up until the last minute so that I know all the team news. I’ll keep track of all my bets here.

Fingers crossed and wish me luck.

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